GSM: The POD would be in the 1960s, so massive amounts of butterflies kill your scenario.
This is true, although I'm not sure how far abroad the butterflies spread and how quickly. At the latest, Kerry's first senate run in 1972 would draw a different face and a new character may gain Kerry's OTL spot.
Massachusetts Politics is completely up in the air in 1972, national politics probably shift shortly thereafter.
You are correct but It seemed like we were taking this the TL-191 route. Same characters but the environment is a bit different. Sicne you are correct then aren't the candidacies of Edwards and Dean mothraed as well, Maybe Edwards is better at Football and doesn't quit the Gamecocks squad and instead plays corner (IIRC his OTL position) and Dean remains an MD, I bet Gerphardt was already in politics by then (was ancient

); anyway, it appears as though I am factually correct, which is what I wanted to know

.
The TL-191 route is very hard to justify on anything other than narrative convenience. While an easy shortcut that often emerges in TLs, I don't think its correct--I really do think that the outcome would lead to interesting debates and cultural questions getting asked along similar terms with different characters emerging.
A realistic answer is that by 1980, butterflies have mostly changed America's political landscape. Ronald Reagan chooses a different VP--a man who never held political office in OTL but was inspired by a different swing of events that helped him make a fortune in the Ketchup industry. Bill Clinton remains Arkansas' Governor as other people make their shot against this VP's second term. The Bush Family is discredited to scandals related to Neil Bush's financial mismangement of a Savings and Loan, and to George W's failures in the Oil Industry, their legacy comes to an end.
In 2004, A Right-wing republician incumbent faces a moderate democratic challenger. This incumbent has a mixed economy but strong credentials on national security due to a major terrorist attack that has rallied the nation. The democrats don't have a lot of chances to win, but they need a good fighter to keep the Republicians from winning too many seats, so a backbencher takes his shot, gets the nod, and keeps the GOP from pushing things too far.
Both of these Characters may as well be fictional--heck, it's easier just to write for the election:
Dem: Atkins/Schmidt
Rep: O'Rourke/Ignacio
And then try to draw platforms on the fly than to even bother trying to assign names in the face of the butterflies. TL-191ism is a subtle form of ASB justified laziness that would never happen.