WI: John Kerry '08

Simple question. If Kerry runs again in 2008, as was rumored for a time, how far would he get in the primaries? Is he completely blown away by the competition, or does he at least manage a so-so? Or does he somehow manage to become the nominee? How does he campaign differently? What could better or worsen his chances?

I can see Kerry running a better campaign than four years prior, but I can't see him getting too high (or too low) in the polls.

And just for fun, how would he do without Clinton or Obama, but otherwise the same OTL field?

EDIT: Also, in order to get him into the race, completely erase the "get [us] stuck in Iraq" gaffe.
 
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Kerry was on the level of John Edwards (around 15%) till the end of 2006, and at that point crashed following a number of gaffes, one I believe which was directed at US soldiers (can't remember). Its certainly possible he could come back from that, but I can't see him moving beyond third place if Barack Obama is in the mix.
 
Without Clinton or Obama and he's the only non-OTL entrant (which is unlikely, as no Obama means Feingold throws his hat in and wins), I'd say he gets the nomination and the Presidency. McCain is even surer of the nomination, too, so we'd see a battle of the 'nam vets.
 
I think he probably drops out after Iowa. He might have siphoned off some of the OTL votes that Clinton and Edwards both got, but I just don't see him getting that many. After a more comfortable Obama win in Iowa than in OTL and a fourth-place Kerry finish, I'd think he'd be done.

If Obama decides to prolong his Senate career and Hillary simply chooses not to run, things get a lot more interesting. I don't think the Democrats would be too keen to renominate him, and would be even less inclined to give Edwards the nod. I don't think its out of the question that a serious movement to draft Al Gore as a candidate begins in the Democratic Party, and at the point I think he'd probably accept.

IMO, no Hillary or Obama for the Dems = a Gore vs. McCain matchup in 2008, with Gore winning comfortably (but with a smaller margin than OTL's Obama vs. McCain).
 
Kerry was on the level of John Edwards (around 15%) till the end of 2006, and at that point crashed following a number of gaffes, one I believe which was directed at US soldiers (can't remember). Its certainly possible he could come back from that, but I can't see him moving beyond third place if Barack Obama is in the mix.

Shit, I meant to erase that and forgot, let me amend the post, I do know what you're talking about.

And that's what I was expecting, about third-place-ish.
 
If he was to win the primary you'd get a President Kerry. In 2008 the Democrats could have run a balloon animal made of condoms as their nominee and they'd still win ('cos of Bush, not McCain...at least until the veep pick).

He wouldn't win the primary though. Never ever. Not while the contests are based on voting rather than who the party higher-ups want. He's such a flopsy, naff candidate anyway, ever more so once he's already lost to Bush. If anyone else was in the race they'd probably win. It'd be an embarrassment, so he either wouldn't do it or he'd drop out early to save face.

Gore would probably win a nomination even if he declined to run if the only other real candidate was Kerry.

That said, Clinton and Obama were never not going to run. You'd need them seriously out of action to consider not running.
 

DTanza

Banned
If you want to keep Hillary and Obama out you need to either release a sex tape of them having an affair with each other, or have them both be tossed into a soap opera style coma after crashing into each other with their cars.
 
The Obama and Hillary part was the just for fun part. The serious question is still focused on how he'd do if they were still present.
 
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