John Heinz was a moderate Republican Senator from Pennsylvania who served from 1977 until his death in a plane crash in 1991. He was thought of as a potential candidate for Governor of Pennsylvania in 1994, and even President of the United States. What if Heinz had lived?
 
Yes, of note is that his widowed wife would later marry John Kerry. James Carville also owes his rise in national prominence to this event.

Is it possible that without Heinz's death, and the special election that followed, Carville might never join Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign? What might this change?
 
Is it possible that without Heinz's death, and the special election that followed, Carville might never join Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign? What might this change?

Yes, and that will have major effects on Clinton's overall messaging particularly with regards to the New Hampshire Primary and the Gennifer Flowers.
 
Yes, and that will have major effects on Clinton's overall messaging particularly with regards to the New Hampshire Primary and the Gennifer Flowers.

I think even without Carville, Clinton would still be able to spin his way out of scandal and transform himself into the "Comeback Kid." If not in New Hampshire, it might be in South Carolina.

As for Heinz, might he have run for Governor or President? How successful would he be in either case?
 
John Heinz might run for POTUS and could definitely do well among moderates and liberals, but that probably wouldn't give him much of a voter pool in the primaries. I think he'd be a fantastic pick for a conservative Republican's VP in '96 or '00 like Jack Kemp was for Dole.

If the GOP can be brought down a different path, then Heinz could be a viable POTUS.
 
John Heinz might run for POTUS and could definitely do well among moderates and liberals, but that probably wouldn't give him much of a voter pool in the primaries. I think he'd be a fantastic pick for a conservative Republican's VP in '96 or '00 like Jack Kemp was for Dole.

If the GOP can be brought down a different path, then Heinz could be a viable POTUS.

Here's an interesting scenario:

Heinz lives, and is elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 1994. He's re-elected in 1998 and runs for President two years later. Although he loses to Bush, he manages to come in second in the primaries. Seeking to unite the party, Bush chooses Heinz as his running mate. Heinz, and not Cheney, at Bush's side might result in a very different world...
 
One of the ironies of his death is that it, at least in part, resulted from his being a VIP.

They were having issues with the landing gear on his plane and sent up a helicopter to double check.

Normally they would have just made an emergency landing with the plane, and it's likely nobody would have died in that scenario

So maybe the copter isn't available
 
Here's an interesting scenario:

Heinz lives, and is elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 1994. He's re-elected in 1998 and runs for President two years later. Although he loses to Bush, he manages to come in second in the primaries. Seeking to unite the party, Bush chooses Heinz as his running mate. Heinz, and not Cheney, at Bush's side might result in a very different world...

I was thinking that if he were to become a conservative Republican's VP and they die in office, he could take the reigns, but is probably pretty heavily primaried in the next election unless there is a Johnson or Carter-esque rally around the incumbent (would that sort of instinct even exist in the modern GOP?).
 
I was thinking that if he were to become a conservative Republican's VP and they die in office, he could take the reigns, but is probably pretty heavily primaried in the next election unless there is a Johnson or Carter-esque rally around the incumbent (would that sort of instinct even exist in the modern GOP?).

If his boss were killed in the alternate 9/11 attacks, then probably.
 
I was thinking that if he were to become a conservative Republican's VP and they die in office, he could take the reigns, but is probably pretty heavily primaried in the next election unless there is a Johnson or Carter-esque rally around the incumbent (would that sort of instinct even exist in the modern GOP?).

Heinz wouldn't be primaried if he generally continues his predecessor's policies and steers a course that appeals to the mainstream of Republicans. You might see a far right challenger, but Heinz would probably be nominated for a full term.

Alternatively, Heinz serves as VP for eight years and runs for President in 2008. If the economy is still bad then he loses in the general.
 
Maybe Clinton loses primary in 1992. Paul Tsongas is elected President and his Veep (Gore? Nunn? Gephardt?) succeeded him when his health situation comes out. He can win thanks to incumbent advantages and Tsongas Effect in 1996 and 2000. Then Heinz wins in 2004.
 
Maybe Clinton loses primary in 1992. Paul Tsongas is elected President and his Veep (Gore? Nunn? Gephardt?) succeeded him when his health situation comes out. He can win thanks to incumbent advantages and Tsongas Effect in 1996 and 2000. Then Heinz wins in 2004.

42. Paul Tsongas (1993-1997), D-MA
43. Al Gore (1997-2005), D-TN

44. John Heinz (2005-2013), R-PA
45. Barack Obama (Since 2013), D-IL

IMO Heinz wasn't conservative enough to win the GOP nomination outside of special circumstances (such as being an incumbent President or VP). But maybe after 12 years of losses the GOP decides to shift a bit towards the center in order to win, like the Democrats did in the 1990s, and this gives Heinz an opening in 2004.
 
Here's an interesting scenario:

Heinz lives, and is elected Governor of Pennsylvania in 1994. He's re-elected in 1998 and runs for President two years later. Although he loses to Bush, he manages to come in second in the primaries. Seeking to unite the party, Bush chooses Heinz as his running mate. Heinz, and not Cheney, at Bush's side might result in a very different world...

If Bush had a VP other than Cheney, would "enhanced interrogation" and the Iraq War have ever happened?
 
Heinz was definitely planning to run for governor in 1994.

I don't see him as W's running mate. Dick Cheney was the head of the search committee and concluded that the best running mate was....Dick Cheney.
 
This doesn't exactly follow the POD, but still it prevents Heinz's death and puts him on a path to the White House:

In 1964, Mo Udall runs for the Senate after four years in the House. He narrowly wins the election and is re-elected in 1970. As a US Senator, he has more institutional support and name recognition than in OTL 1976 and this allows him to defeat Jimmy Carter in the Democratic primary.

38. Gerald Ford (1974-1977), R-MI
39. Mo Udall (1977-1985), D-AZ
40. John Heinz (1985-1993), R-PA

Udall chooses Carter as his running mate and the Democratic ticket unseats President Ford in the general. Udall succeeds where Carter failed on the economy: he closely works with Congress to pass an economic stimulus, maintain price controls on gas, and enact a universal healthcare program in 1979. Udall appoints Volcker to the Fed in 1978, a year earlier than Carter, and despite an economic downturn in 1979 the economy is improving again in 1980 - just in time for Udall to win re-election over Ronald Reagan.

In his second term Udall survives an assassination attempt but a recession breaks out in 1981. The Republicans make gains in 1982 and Pennsylvania Senator John Heinz wins a second term in a landslide. Handsome, articulate, and compassionate, he wins the 1984 Republican presidential nomination and narrowly defeats Vice-President Jimmy Carter to become America's 40th Chief Executive.
 
Top