WI: John Bell Elected President

How, exactly does he win? Of the four major candidates he had the least votes.

Well - OTL he finished third in electoral votes, therefore being eligible for election by the House of Representatives.

Suppose Seward was nominated, and as many Republicans feared, is too radical for many voters. This leads to Douglas and Bell doing better in the North.

IL (11 EV), IN (13), and CA (4) switch from R to Douglas. Also, 4 EV in NJ switch from R to Bell. (In NJ, there was a fusion ticket of 3 Douglas and 4 Bell electors. 4,000-5,000 Democrats voted only for the Douglas electors who won by 4,000-4,500 votes, while the 4 Bell men lost by from 100 to 2,200 votes to the Republicans. Thus if Seward falls, it's Bell that gains.) And OR (3 EV) switches from R to Breckinridge.

This leaves Seward with 145 EV, not enough to win. Douglas bumps up from 12 to 40 EV, Bell to 43, and Breckinridge to 75.

Douglas' better prospects in the North inspire his supporters in the South and discourage Breckinridge's. They expect him to control patronage, rewarding his friends and punishing those who worked against him. The Douglas men work harder, and some OTL Breckinridge men back off rather than offend the future President.

This splits the Democrat vote enough to switch LA (6), MD (8), and NC (10) from Breckinridge to Bell. The totals are Seward 145, Bell 67, Breckinridge 51, Douglas 44. Douglas is out.

The election goes to the House of Representatives. 15 slave-state delegations will never vote for Seward. The California and Oregon Representatives are Doughface (pro-Southern) Democrats. Republicans control 15 delegations; Douglas controls 1. The Democrats and slave-state ex-Whigs could unite for Breckinridge; or if the House remains deadlocked, his running mate Joe Lane is being elected VP by the Senate (rather handily). (This possibility was bruited by Republicans during the election - they asserted that the choice was "Lincoln or Lane".)

So Republicans hold their noses and vote for Bell, who is after all an ex-Whig like most of them, and a moderate on slavery issues. Bell's fellow ex-Whigs control TN; KY and MD are split between ex-Whigs and Democrats; Douglas controls IL by 5 to 4. If the Republicans and Tennessee support Bell, and one Democrat in IL, KY, or MD joins in, Bell wins.

So that's how Bell could win.

As President: his Cabinet would be stocked with elderly ex-Cotton Whigs and maybe a moderate Democrat.
 
This splits the Democrat vote enough to switch LA (6), MD (8), and NC (10) from Breckinridge to Bell. The totals are Seward 145, Bell 67, Breckinridge 51, Douglas 44. Douglas is out.

The election goes to the House of Representatives. 15 slave-state delegations will never vote for Seward. The California and Oregon Representatives are Doughface (pro-Southern) Democrats. Republicans control 15 delegations; Douglas controls 1. The Democrats and slave-state ex-Whigs could unite for Breckinridge; or if the House remains deadlocked, his running mate Joe Lane is being elected VP by the Senate (rather handily). (This possibility was bruited by Republicans during the election - they asserted that the choice was "Lincoln or Lane".)

Except that on this scenario Lane wouldn't be in the running.

The Senate gets to choose only between the first two VP candidates, so the choice would be between Seward's running-mate (Lincoln? Chase?) and Edward Everett.
 
Except that on this scenario Lane wouldn't be in the running.

The Senate gets to choose only between the first two VP candidates,
Good catch!
... so the choice would be between Seward's running-mate (Lincoln? Chase?)...
Maybe Lyman Trumbull. Chase is too much of a radical. Trumbull is a westerner and ex-Democrat. (Knock-on; if Seward/Trumbull won, that would leave Trumbull's Senate seat vacant. Could Lincoln get it?)

and Edward Everett.
President Edward Everett? But I think the House would not remain deadlocked if the South can't thereby elevate Lane. Either they'll try to push Breckinridge through, by co-opting a few KY and MD ex-Whigs, or settle for Bell, or the Republicans will preemptively push Bell.
 

TFSmith121

Banned
Except Lincoln was a compromise candidate for the Republicans for a reason

What would a John Bell Administration have been like if he had been elected President following the 1860 United States Presidential Election going to Congress? What would have happened to the Constitutional Union Party?

Except Bell and the Democrats were all weak in comparison to the Republicans, who won the popular and Electoral College votes (which is what mattered, of course).

And Lincoln, as an anti-slavery Westerner, was a compromise candidate for the Republicans for a reason; Seward didn't get it precisely because he was a New Yorker and seen (fairly or not) as a "radical," and Cameron's Pennsylvania delegation was enough to put Lincoln within striking distance on the second ballot; as it was, Lincoln was second on the first ballot.

Best,
 
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