Thinking about how 1796 plays out TTL -- assuming 1793 goes as OTL, Jefferson is still a lead candidate, and I'd say he's more likely to win in this scenario.
The question that leaves though is, who is his leading (Federalist) opponent in 1796 and/or 1800? Is it possible, if the Reynolds Pamphlet is butterflied,* for Hamilton to be Jefferson's rival for re-election?
Okay, then how did Clinton get along with Burr at this point in time?
Burr is more complicated; one thing I can say is that OTL he had endeavored on his own campaign for 1792, competing with Clinton (and Adams) for the position, but bowed out before the EC.
*if Washington doesn't recall Monroe from France, due to Jefferson being placed to succeed him, this
might be an effect