WI: Joe Kennedy Jr. Lives

Joe Kennedy died during a secret mission during WW2 in August 1944. Kennedy had been his father's protege for the presidency. Joe Kennedy was the eldest and most popular of the sons, and he domineered over John Kennedy. He was also something of a prep school bully towards Jack (sometimes physically), although the two did have a bond, and Jack Kennedy adored his older brother. Jack would argue with him, but at the same time, if anyone outside the family tried to step in, he'd tell them to mind their own business.

From what I can gauge about Joe Kennedy, he had the blunt Kennedy characteristics without the same depth. JFK was not the eldest brother, and was sickly as a child, which made Joe Kennedy Sr bring out a more tender side than he showed to his other children. This also lent to JFK developing a personality that was introspective and intellectual. Dealing with his older brother also likely lent to creative thinking and problem solving. Joe Kennedy did not have that, from what I would theorize based on what material there is to extrapolate from. He also seemed to be a parrot for his father's opinions and thinking.

It is difficult to measure this man because the biographical material is not there in a decent volume. However, the version I have in my head is good looking, charming, charismatic, shallow, and non-introspective; the good parts of the image JFK projected without the personal/mental maturity, because he had no need to develop it. Honestly, something of a Democratic Ronald Reagan. I also wonder if he would be a prep school bully in the political stage, friendly with his clique and dismissive or domineering of others. I would assume he learned more from what his father thought than from books, and that he would parrot similar sentiments on the Jews, among other things.

There is debate to be had on JPK's post-war path. He was involved in politics, his father thought he'd be president, and he was planning on running for the Congressional seat John Kennedy won in 1946. At the same time, Jackie Kennedy argued that she did not think Joe could go as far as Jack did and would not be president. Given his temperament, that may be a fair argument.
 
The late William G. Carleton, a University of Florida historian and political scientist (and occasional speechwriter for Joseph Kennedy, Sr.) expressed some doubt that Joe, Jr. would ever have become president: "If Joe, Jr. had lived, John would not have gone into politics at all. This is not to say that Joe, Jr. would have 'made the grade' in high politics, as believers in the Kennedy magic now assume. Joe, Jr. was an extrovert; he was obviously the politcal 'type'. John's mind was more penetrating and dispassionate, and he did not fit the stereotype of the politician, particularly the Irish politician. What endeared John to the status-seeking minorities was that he appeared more the scion of an old aristocratic Yankee family than the authentic scions themselves. Had Joe, Jr. lived, the Kennedy family in all probability would never have had a President at all. (In part, this evaluaton of Joe, Jr. and John is derived from personal observation. I recall vividly an evening, April 4, 1941, when I was a guest at the Kennedy home in Palm Beach. Following dinner, the entire family, including the younger children, assembled in the drawing-room for a discussion of public affairs...Mr. Kennedy, John, and I were the chief participants, although Mrs. Kennedy and Joe, Jr. often broke in with comments. It was clear to me that John had a far better historical and political mind than his father or his elder brother; indeed, that John's capacity for seeing current events in historical perspective and projecting historical trends into the future was unusual..."

https://books.google.com/books?id=nrFlAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA203

The fact that Jack was more bookish (no doubt illness gave him more time to read) and Joe, Jr. more extroverted and closer to the stereotype of the Irish politician may explain why Jack appealed more than Joe, Jr. ever could to intellectuals like Carleton, but it hardly proves that Joe would have been less attractive to the electorate as a whole. I think one reason for Carleton's admiration for Jack is that Jack, unlike Joe, Jr., was edging away from his father's isolationism at an early stage. Yet Joe, Jr.too might eventually have disassociated himself from some of his faher's more controversial positions had he lived. Joe, Jr. might have been tempted, for example, if he were elected to the Senate, to oppose the censure of Joe McCarthy (a hero both to his father and to many of his Boston Irish constituents) but he would have to realize that this would wreck his chance of getting the Democratic presidential nomination. (Jack of course managed to avoid the vote due to back surgery, an option which presumably would not be available to Joe...) If Robert F. Kennedy could morph from a McCarthy aide to a liberal Senator from New York, one should not assume Joe, Jr. woud always retain his America-First politics of the early 1940's.
 
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Joe Kennedy died during a secret mission during WW2 in August 1944. Kennedy had been his father's protege for the presidency. Joe Kennedy was the eldest and most popular of the sons, and he domineered over John Kennedy. He was also something of a prep school bully towards Jack (sometimes physically), although the two did have a bond, and Jack Kennedy adored his older brother. Jack would argue with him, but at the same time, if anyone outside the family tried to step in, he'd tell them to mind their own business.

From what I can gauge about Joe Kennedy, he had the blunt Kennedy characteristics without the same depth. JFK was not the eldest brother, and was sickly as a child, which made Joe Kennedy Sr bring out a more tender side than he showed to his other children. This also lent to JFK developing a personality that was introspective and intellectual. Dealing with his older brother also likely lent to creative thinking and problem solving. Joe Kennedy did not have that, from what I would theorize based on what material there is to extrapolate from. He also seemed to be a parrot for his father's opinions and thinking.

It is difficult to measure this man because the biographical material is not there in a decent volume. However, the version I have in my head is good looking, charming, charismatic, shallow, and non-introspective; the good parts of the image JFK projected without the personal/mental maturity, because he had no need to develop it. Honestly, something of a Democratic Ronald Reagan. I also wonder if he would be a prep school bully in the political stage, friendly with his clique and dismissive or domineering of others. I would assume he learned more from what his father thought than from books, and that he would parrot similar sentiments on the Jews, among other things.

There is debate to be had on JPK's post-war path. He was involved in politics, his father thought he'd be president, and he was planning on running for the Congressional seat John Kennedy won in 1946. At the same time, Jackie Kennedy argued that she did not think Joe could go as far as Jack did and would not be president. Given his temperament, that may be a fair argument.

From what you describe it seems like he was very much the first-born stereotype. Identify closely with parent's view, less self-awareness, less sociable, overconfident, thinks that he is the boss and generally just being a jerk. Not a material for greatness I would say.
 
The late William G. Carleton, a University of Florida historian and political scientist (and occasional speechwriter for Joseph Kennedy, Sr.) expressed some doubt that Joe, Jr. would ever have become president: "If Joe, Jr. had lived, John would not have gone into politics at all. This is not to say that Joe, Jr. would have 'made the grade' in high politics, as believers in the Kennedy magic now assume. Joe, Jr. was an extrovert; he was obviously the politcal 'type'. John's mind was more penetrating and dispassionate, and he did not fit the stereotype of the politician, particularly the Irish politician. What endeared John to the status-seeking minorities was that he appeared more the scion of an old aristocratic Yankee family than the authentic scions themselves. Had Joe, Jr. lived, the Kennedy family in all probability would never have had a President at all. (In part, this evaluaton of Joe, Jr. and John is derived from personal observation. I recall vividly an evening, April 4, 1941, when I was a guest at the Kennedy home in Palm Beach. Following dinner, the entire family, including the younger children, assembled in the drawing-room for a discussion of public affairs...Mr. Kennedy, John, and I were the chief participants, although Mrs. Kennedy and Joe, Jr. often broke in with comments. It was clear to me that John had a far better historical and political mind than his father or his elder brother; indeed, that John's capacity for seeing current events in historical perspective and projecting historical trends into the future was unusual..."

https://books.google.com/books?id=nrFlAgAAQBAJ&pg=PA203

The fact that Jack was more bookish (no doubt illness gave him more time to read) and Joe, Jr. more extroverted and closer to the stereotype of the Irish politician may explain why Jack appealed more than Joe, Jr. ever could to intellectuals like Carleton, but it hardly proves that Joe would have been less attractive to the electorate as a whole. I think one reason for Carleton's admiration for Jack is that Jack, unlike Joe, Jr., was edging away from his father's isolationism at an early stage. Yet Joe, Jr.too might eventually have disassociated himself from some of his faher's more controversial positions had he lived. Joe, Jr. might have been tempted, for example, if he were elected to the Senate, to oppose the censure of Joe McCarthy (a hero both to his father and to many of his Boston Irish constituents) but he would have to realize that this would wreck his chance of getting the Democratic presidential nomination. (Jack of course managed to avoid the vote due to back surgery, an option which presumably would not be available to Joe...) If Robert F. Kennedy could morph from a McCarthy aide to a liberal Senator from New York, one should not assume Joe, Jr. woud always retain his America-First politics of the early 1940's.

There's a lot of good points here, but I have to disagree with the assumption that Jack wouldn't have gone into politics. Having recently read David Nasaw's The Patriarch, I remember seeing that at the very least Inga Arvad, Jack's pre-war girlfriend (or, more specifically, pre-US-entry-into-the-war) seemed to recognize a certain ambition in Jack that he tried to hide behind a front of nonchalance and dispassion. This observation likely has quite a bit of merit, considering just how much of a vigorous campaigner JFK proved to be when running for office. Sure, as a Congressman he often showed up to work looking like a disheveled college student, but I think that actually further proves he had a certain ambition about him - just look at FDR, Jr.

Additionally, Joe Kennedy wanted
all of his sons to go into politics. Hell, he even wanted his daughters to do socially useful work. That's why he spent so much time making his fortune - he didn't want his kids to have to worry about money and wanted them to dedicate their time to public service (of various sorts) and politics for his sons especially.

Now, as for Joe, Jr, I actually think FDR, Jr. provides us with a pretty good potential archetype for the kind of work ethic he would have in Congress. FDR, Jr. was bored and lazy because he felt like he deserved better, and I feel like Joe, Jr, having essentially been groomed since birth to go into politics, would similarly feel like the House was beneath him. Now, that's not to say he couldn't get elected. He probably could. In school he had a bit of a reputation as a "Golden Boy" of sorts with his teachers, and in addition to being attractive he had a certain charisma about him (but likely not the same as JFK's dispassionate cool air about him). If he can make it through six years in the House, he may even have a strong chance in a Senate bid in 1952 if he wants to join the Senate - let me get back to that in a second. Henry Cabot Lodge was busy campaigning for Eisenhower that year, and I suspect Joe could charm his away across the state into becoming Senator, but only if he can find it in him to actually work at it. Jack was a tireless campaigner who would work so hard on the campaign trail that he would get sick with exhaustion (not helped by his sickly nature), but I'm not entirely sure Joe, Jr. would have that same kind of work ethic on the campaign trail. Even without it he may still win, but it would be a lot tougher if he wasn't desperately campaigning.

But all that's assuming Joe, Jr. would even want to be a Senator. Jack certainly did, but that's because he really liked foreign policy and that was more appropriately in the realm of the Senate as opposed to the House. If Joe, Jr. holds onto his father's foreign policy beliefs (which I'd also like to talk about in a moment), then he might not want a job in the Senate. He might run for Governor instead (which might have to wait, because of Paul Dever). I personally think this would be the more likely option because Joe, Jr. would be the type who feels like he should be in charge. He can't exactly do that in the Senate, but as Governor he can be in charge of Massachusetts. It's true that we simply don't know which office Joe would rather run for, but if he's the type who feels like his entire life has been moving towards him becoming President, he might not want to go up against Henry Cabot Lodge for a spot in the Senate. That was a risky move that paid off for Jack only due to his tireless campaign efforts.

And that brings me to his father's beliefs. In defense of Joe, Sr.'s beliefs - which is a bit hard to do, I know - it would seem that as Jack grew up (with a pretty deep and complex understanding of foreign policy) it seemed like he was able to temper some of Joe, Sr.'s beliefs. It could very well be that Jack tempers his brothers beliefs even more, not to mention Joe, Jr. could very well move away from his father's beliefs as he grew older (and likely would, as the Cold War became a bipartisan consensus and he wanted to stay in office). On a sliding scale from least change to most change, I imagine he would be an anti-communist opposed to Europe's imperialism as well as America being the guardian of democratic (or "democratic") governments outside of the Western Hemisphere and to some extent Western Europe. For most change, he might just jump into the deep end of Johnson or even Goldwater style hawkishness. He didn't seem to have the kind of concept of depth that his brother had, especially on foreign policy, but it is for the most part a pretty speculative area. I do suspect it would likely be closer to one of the two extremes as opposed to the more balanced views of JFK, but that is just my interpretation of things.

And now onto Joe, Jr.'s Presidential ambitions. I do, for what little it is worth, believe that Joe would listen to his father on the matter of running for Vice President in 1956, but it must also be said that it wouldn't even be clear if he was being considered as JFK had been. That same year, the DNC had a video talking about the younger generation coming up in the political world with JFK as a sort of centerpiece - but there's no reason that JPK, Jr. would get the same kind of treatment - especially if he's Governor in Boston instead of a Senator in D.C. Four years later, assuming he's made a name for himself, he's probably running for President. (This is assuming that the butterflies haven't spread far enough to affect much in the Truman and Eisenhower Administrations.) Now that he's playing for all the marbles, he might actually campaign in the primaries as hard as Jack did (or harder, considering he was in better health) and if he's kept the "Golden Boy" image might actually do pretty well for himself. Assuming he can still get to the nomination, Johnson is a pretty strong and obvious VP choice for him, too. Going up against Nixon, though, I'm not sure he can win. For one, Nixon is smart and has a sharper mind than Joe, Jr. likely had - which already gives him a one-up in the debates - but also if Joe, Jr. is the "Golden Boy", that's a bit of a different image than the one JFK had. JFK's cool, dispassionate disposition made Nixon's ferocity look kind of foolish and "uncool". But if Joe, Jr. is more of a charmer, sure it accentuates Nixon's blunt, attack-dog kind of personality, but in that election with the Soviet Union on everyone's mind, Nixon might look like the better Commander-in-Chief. Plus, depending on how his foreign policy beliefs shook out, Nixon may be the more hawkish of the two in this election, when it was JFK who was more hawkish IOTL. JFK was also attacked as being too conservative and too much of his father's son IOTL, and it's likely that these criticisms would be even more pronounced against Joe, Jr. (Furthermore, if Joe, Jr. is Governor and Henry Cabot Lodge stayed in the Senate - and still was picked as Nixon's running mate - then that actually makes Nixon's strategy of making Kennedy defend his home turf in the election much stronger than it was IOTL, where Jack had already beaten Senator Lodge.)

So there we have it. In a narrow election, I think Vice President Nixon edges out over Governor Joe Kennedy.

What about the other Kennedy brothers? More specifically, what about Jack?

For Jack, it's important to remember that Joe, Sr. was seriously considering looking for a position for Jack to have in the Truman Administration (Asst. Secretary of State or Asst. Secretary of the Navy, most likely). With Joe, Jr. in the House and Jack in need of a job, Joe Kennedy may actually push harder for that. From there, he might very well run for Joe, Jr.'s House seat when his older brother goes after the Governor's Mansion (which would likely be 1954). However, for the same reasons as IOTL, Jack would likely prefer to jump into the Senate. His preference to work in foreign affairs related issues would be even more acute considering his Cabinet work, so it's not too hard to see him running for Senate in 1958 (against Henry Cabot Lodge, actually, which could very well trigger Nixon's choosing a different running mate two years later and further bring butterflies to that election). With his brother losing in 1960, the family's hopes may very well devolve onto Jack Kennedy, now, who could run in 1964 or 1968 depending on how well President Nixon is doing in the White House. This would actually be quite fitting, considering Joe and Jack would always compete against each other in their youth, and Joe's failure to win the White House would go a long ways towards Jack finally proving he was as good as or better than his older brother.

I don't see too much reason for Bobby's career to differ all to much before the 1960 Election here (with him just helping out Joe instead of Jack), but afterwards he may be sent by his father to run for Senator in New York in 1962 (which, despite the strong GOP victory that year there IOTL, may turn out differently with the ten-year itch of Republicans in the White House. While Bobby would still likely be expected to pay deference to Jack in terms of waiting in line for the Presidency, it would serve as a sort of "back-up plan" for the family, considering Joe, Jr. would've already tried and failed. Little Teddy Kennedy may move out west like he had hoped, but assuming he's convinced to stay in Massachusetts, he may run for Jack's Senate seat in 1964 (if Jack runs for President that year) or for the other Senate seat in 1966 (which, with a fourteen-year itch, might be a pretty easy task).

Hope this helped, @Emperor Norton I :D
 

cpip

Gone Fishin'
The fact that Jack was more bookish (no doubt illness gave him more time to read) and Joe, Jr. more extroverted and closer to the stereotype of the Irish politician may explain why Jack appealed more than Joe, Jr. ever could to intellectuals like Carleton, but it hardly proves that Joe would have been less attractive to the electorate as a whole.

What about Jack as an advisor to Joe, in a similar capacity to Bobby serving Jack? Could Jack, say, with an Assistant Secretaryship under his belt, end up being a senior advisor -- and, let's say if Joe makes it to the WH, Jack becomes his Secretary of State? (I'd think that would bump Bobby out of being Attorney General -- the Senate might tolerate only so much nepotism, in my mind.)
 
What about Jack as an advisor to Joe, in a similar capacity to Bobby serving Jack? Could Jack, say, with an Assistant Secretaryship under his belt, end up being a senior advisor -- and, let's say if Joe makes it to the WH, Jack becomes his Secretary of State? (I'd think that would bump Bobby out of being Attorney General -- the Senate might tolerate only so much nepotism, in my mind.)

A few things make this unlikely in my opinion.

One, it would be unlikely that Jack fills a similar role to Joe that Bobby did for him. Bobby helped Jack run his campaigns, and despite him being very healthy it wrought serious havoc on his health. If Jack tried to do that, I doubt he could it for very long considering his health. And that's without even considering the personality differences (Bobby was able to be absolutely ruthless in politics, and while Jack proved one hell of a horse trader, as Everett Dirksen would find out IOTL, I'm not sure if he'd be willing to go as far as Bobby was willing) and the fact that Jack and Joe had much for of a friendly rivalry than Bobby and Jack did.

I'm not sure what kind of policies Jack could advise Joe on while the latter is Governor if the former was an Asst. Secretary for the State or Naval Departments, either. If Joe was a Senator, I suppose it could happen, but I think Jack would be a bit too ambitious for that kind of thing, and I think Jack would be trying to work on his own career to sign on as a full time advisor to his brother.

If Joe makes it to the White House (somehow), I also think it's doubtful Jack becomes his Secretary of State. First of all, rightly or wrongly the SecState is seen as the premier Cabinet member, so appointing a brother to that spot right after being elected is going to send a lot of bad signals. Second, even if Jack was elected to the Senate in 1958, there's no guarantee he gets on the Foreign Affairs Committee. It took him four years in the Senate before Johnson gave him the spot IOTL, and there might not even be an opening for Jack in only two years. So he's been officially out of foreign policy for at least eight years, even if he was an Asst. Secretary before. Maybe he becomes something like UN Ambassador under his brother, but Joe, Sr. wanted his son to have someone he could trust in his Cabinet - and that means blood. Realistically Jack could be his Chief of Staff, but if he's Senator I doubt he wants to give that up.

It's more likely that Bobby gets the Justice Department like he did IOTL if Joe somehow wins the White House, especially because he likely is filling the same advisory role for Joe that he did for Jack IOTL.
 
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