WI: Jobbik won a supermajority in Hungary in 2010

Fehérvári

The same as with the Fidesz, just with trials against old regimes and with much less corruption. Less stadiums as well.

The diplomatic reputation of the country would be worse, but the Jobbik would soften it's tone over time, but the Jobbik would massively support the autonomy movements of Hungarians in the neighboring countries.

War is very unlikely, but expect significant growth in Hungarian arms industry and in the size and power of military.
The only two possible war situation is against Ukraine because of the instabilities and for the defense of Hungarians (and Rusins) in Subcarpathia; and against Serbia because of the protection of Hungarians there and the Serbian policy during the migrant crisis.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
not_an_original_name said:
What would happen if the far-right Jobbik won a supermajority similar to Fidesz' supermajority in OTL?
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For one, you could have much more Hungarian Jews emigrate in this TL. Indeed, Hungary still has about 50,000 Jews right now--most of them appear to be very assimilated--but if Jobbik continues on and on with its anti-Semitism, a sizable part of these Hungarian Jews could gradually emigrate.
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Fehérvári said:
The only two possible war situation is against Ukraine because of the instabilities and for the defense of Hungarians (and Rusins) in Subcarpathia; and against Serbia because of the protection of Hungarians there and the Serbian policy during the migrant crisis.
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A Hungarian military intervention during the Ukraine crisis would certainly be interesting. Indeed, would this have resulted in Hungary getting kicked out of the European Union and/or NATO?
 

Fehérvári

CaliGuy said:
A Hungarian military intervention during the Ukraine crisis would certainly be interesting. Indeed, would this have resulted in Hungary getting kicked out of the European Union and/or NATO?
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Couldn't let's say the endangering of Hungarian minorites and dual residents could be a good pretext to pull an article 5?
This way the kick could be avoided maybe
 

Iron Chariot

Blebea Cezar-Iulian said:
More probably:Would Jobbik ask for a Hungexit?
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Absolutely not. A Jobbik government would want to leech off that sweet EU development money just like the current government does. Those funds are used to keep Hungary afloat and they can also be stolen easily.

I see no reason to believe a Jobbik government would be less corrupt, although this is really just speculation - they could be more or less corrupt than the current government, who knows. It's difficult to ascertain how corrupt a new political formation, that has never been in a position of power, will be after they take power. Party boss Vona is certainly not a man of principles - he has turned the party from a neo-Nazi party into something resembling a populist-conservative political formation because it was politically expedient for him, and it's not like he was replaced in the process.
 

Nelson Mikeson

Iron Chariot said:
Absolutely not. A Jobbik government would want to leech off that sweet EU development money just like the current government does. Those funds are used to keep Hungary afloat and they can also be stolen easily.

I see no reason to believe a Jobbik government would be less corrupt, although this is really just speculation - they could be more or less corrupt than the current government, who knows. It's difficult to ascertain how corrupt a new political formation, that has never been in a position of power, will be after they take power. Party boss Vona is certainly not a man of principles - he has turned the party from a neo-Nazi party into something resembling a populist-conservative political formation because it was politically expedient for him, and it's not like he was replaced in the process.
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Couldn't Hungary try to join the Eurasian Economic Union or Ukraine cutting Hungary off or something else prevents that?Also,on a related note,I always wondered why the EPP doesn't exclude FIDESZ since it's so against it's vision of Europe.
 

alter

The thing with Jobbik is that it seems to have a rapidly changing ideology ever since its existence. The only thing that remained constant is that the party always branded itself as Radical, Pro-Working Class, somewhat Anti-Budapest and Pro-Countryside, Anti-Imperialist, and Anti-Globalist.

From about 2008 to 2011 it aligned itself with Pan-Turanism, Islamic countries, and against the USA, Israel, and the EU.

Gábor Vona, the leader of Jobbik frequently spoke about his friends in Palestine, and what a positive, warm, and friendly atmosphere he experienced among Palestinians. He said that "Islam is the last remaning hope of humanity in this corrupt and amoral world", and he sent a letter to Mahmoud Ahmedinejad in Iran to invite him and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to watch over the Parlamentary Elections, instead of the Police (which he identified with the ÁVH, the brutal Hungarian version of the KGB during the 1950s).

The party organized an "Arabic-Hungarian Friendship Day" purposefully on September 11, 2011, the tenth anniversary of the WTC attack, and put a Persian-language plaque in Tiszavasvári, a small Hungarian town with a Jobbik-aligned mayor that proclaimed "The Friendship of Hungary and Iran".

Pro-Turkey attitudes (though based more on Turanism than on Islam) were also frequent.

When FIDESZ won the elections in 2010, Krisztina Morvai, a Jobbik member celebrated with tearful eyes on the post-election celebration, and shouted into the camera that "Now Hungary won't become a Second Palestine!"


For the 2014 elections, Jobbik promised free public transportation for every inhabitant of Budapest.

When the European Migrant Crisis started the party's vocally pro-Arab and pro-Islamic ideology was quietly phased out. There was a brief period of pro-Americanism, triggered by something Mormons said in the USA, I don't remember the cause of it, but this was also dropped later.

After 2015 Jobbik adopted a pro-Russian, and pro-Putin stance, became somewhat less critical of the Communist Era, and adopted a rhetoric that can be thought of as a thinly-veiled nostalgia for that time, when Hungary was not Western, but Eastern, when the country was in the Soviet, not the American sphere of influence etc.

After Trump won the US elections, Jobbik again started up with some light pro-Americanism while remaining more strongly pro-Russian.

Right now, the party is trying to tone down its Radicalism, and reinvent itself as a Center-Right party, that is basically "like Fidesz, but more Pro-Worker and Anti-Western"
 
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Iron Chariot

Blebea Cezar-Iulian said:
Couldn't Hungary try to join the Eurasian Economic Union or Ukraine cutting Hungary off or something else prevents that?
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I've heard it argued that Putin wants Orbán and Hungary to stay in the EU because that means that Russia will have a trojan horse in the EU. If Hungary left the EU, their value to Russia would thus decrease a lot and any economic cooperation with Russia would be much more unfavorable for Hungary than it is now. Besides, Hungary is geographically isolated from Russia, as you said - I'm sure that would hinder a closer cooperation.

Blebea Cezar-Iulian said:
Also,on a related note,I always wondered why the EPP doesn't exclude FIDESZ since it's so against it's vision of Europe.
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Many people have asked that. I think the answer is simply that everyone involved realizes that Orbán's battles with the EU are merely political posturing meant for the Hungarian electorate, and aren't to be taken seriously. Orbán tends to be pretty cooperative with the EU behind the scenes, after all (he's voted for the approval of the immigrant quotes he claims to fight against so much), and his economic policies meet the approval of the EU - he is very pro-business and has consistently worked to keep wages low and workers' rights scarce. In light of this, the EU has been quite willing to turn a blind eye to the siphoning of development funds and the occasional anti-EU rhetoric.
 
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