WI Joao VI of Portugal becomes Emperor of Brazil

As the title says, let me explain.

In 1825 Pedro I of Brazil and his father Joao VI of Portugal signed the Treaty of Rio de Janeiro finally ending the Brazilian Independence War and reestablishing normal relations between the two countries. Today, I was reading it and found the most interesting clause: Pedro I gave to his father, the King of Portugal, the title of Emperor of Brazil - what wasn't a big deal since Pedro was his first-born son anyway, most Brazilian historians agree that this was just a honorary title.

However, WI Pedro dies before his father? IOTL Pedro died naturally in 1834 and Joao died in 1826, allegedly poisoned... but, y'know, accidents happen.

Interestingly enough, the Brazilian Imperial Constitution was signed one year before the treaty, in 1824. Thus, I don't think that the Brazilian aristocracy, pretty scared of long and chaotic civil war, would fight the old king if he simply accepts the Constitution and send a reasonable Viceroy to Rio.

Is it plausible? What's next? Can such personal union be viable in a long term?
 
I think the Brazilian aristocrats rejected a personal union. Butterfly that away and we have an interesting situation
 
Assuming that Pedro dies before 26 the most obvious choice is that his eldest son becomes the heir to the Brazilian throne while in Portugal King João tries to decide between his second son as heir or to go with one of his grandsons.
 
I think the Brazilian aristocrats rejected a personal union. Butterfly that away and we have an interesting situation

Pretty much the other way around. The Portuguese Liberals of the Revolution of Oporto didn't accept Brazilians as equals and demanded recolonization. By 1825 things are different, both countries have strong constitutions, and IF the King pledges to both Constitutions I don't see why one party or another would object it, they're already two different nations politically speaking.

Assuming that Pedro dies before 26 the most obvious choice is that his eldest son becomes the heir to the Brazilian throne while in Portugal King João tries to decide between his second son as heir or to go with one of his grandsons.

Indeed, we'll need to kill Pedro I before his son's birth (or during his early childhood). For this personal union to happen we'll need to make the Brazilian National Assembly completely unhopeful of Pedro's successors.

By the time that Pedro II was born, Pedro I has four living daughters: Maria, Januária, Paula and Francisca, the oldest being the 6-year old Maria (later Maria I of Portugal). Therefore, if Pedro I dies by 1826/1828 we'll have an earlier and possibly more chaotic Regency period. Remember that Brazil started fighting the Cisplatine War against Argentina and Uruguay in 1825.

Therefore, let me paint the chaotic scenario for you: the Brazilian National Assembly will face both potential civil war and an external war with a 6-year old girl-queen controlled by the prime-minister-of-the-month. Only if the old Portuguese king pledges to the Brazilian Constitution and promises his support for the war in Argentina...
 
Pretty much the other way around. The Portuguese Liberals of the Revolution of Oporto didn't accept Brazilians as equals and demanded recolonization. By 1825 things are different, both countries have strong constitutions, and IF the King pledges to both Constitutions I don't see why one party or another would object it, they're already two different nations politically speaking.



Indeed, we'll need to kill Pedro I before his son's birth (or during his early childhood). For this personal union to happen we'll need to make the Brazilian National Assembly completely unhopeful of Pedro's successors.

By the time that Pedro II was born, Pedro I has four living daughters: Maria, Januária, Paula and Francisca, the oldest being the 6-year old Maria (later Maria I of Portugal). Therefore, if Pedro I dies by 1826/1828 we'll have an earlier and possibly more chaotic Regency period. Remember that Brazil started fighting the Cisplatine War against Argentina and Uruguay in 1825.

Therefore, let me paint the chaotic scenario for you: the Brazilian National Assembly will face both potential civil war and an external war with a 6-year old girl-queen controlled by the prime-minister-of-the-month. Only if the old Portuguese king pledges to the Brazilian Constitution and promises his support for the war in Argentina...

Assuming that then the "PU" last for one year, assuming that João dies like OTL, then there's a new problem, Miguel. Now Maria is in Brasil and Miguel is in Portugal, I can easily see Cortes-Gerais, offering the crown to Miguel if he promises to upheld the 1822 constitution, that is currently suspended, which he will probably do like OTL and lie about it saying that he will so in Portugal you already have the Liberal Wars getting ready to start, while Brasil is fighting Argentina.

And then there's another problem, would João be in a position to offer help to Brasil against Argentina? I think not, the country is in no state to go to war against, specially in SA, the constitution is currently suspended so the Brazilians have no indications that he will upheld the Brazilian constitution, and the army and the navy are in a very bad state right now.

At best you have a one year PU, at worst either the Brazilians or the Portuguese tell João to stop his south american dreams.
 
Well, to do this we need to butterfly or get rid of the Constitution of 1824:

Art. 1. O IMPERIO do Brazil é a associação Politica de todos os Cidadãos Brazileiros. Elles formam uma Nação livre, e independente, que não admitte com qualquer outra laço algum de união, ou federação, que se opponha á sua Independencia.

Article 1. The Empire of Brazil is the political association of all Brazilian citizens. They make a free nation, and independent, wich doesn't admits any other tie of union, or federation, that opposes its own independence.
 
Well, to do this we need to butterfly or get rid of the Constitution of 1824:



Article 1. The Empire of Brazil is the political association of all Brazilian citizens. They make a free nation, and independent, wich doesn't admits any other tie of union, or federation, that opposes its own independence.

The 1824 Constitution doesn't have a special procedure for amendments, it can be as easily changed as any other new bill in the Congress. Thus, it's a question of political legitimacy more than anything. IF the changing is made by and for the local elite to mantain the country's unity on the brink of a civil war, provided that they take sufficient measures to maintain Brazilians de facto in power and avoid recolonization, I don't see why the people would object the new arrangement given the unfortunate circunstances. Remember that the Portuguese Party and afterwards the Restorationist Party were very influential during the Primeiro Reinado and the Regencia.

Assuming that then the "PU" last for one year, assuming that João dies like OTL, then there's a new problem, Miguel. Now Maria is in Brasil and Miguel is in Portugal, I can easily see Cortes-Gerais, offering the crown to Miguel if he promises to upheld the 1822 constitution, that is currently suspended, which he will probably do like OTL and lie about it saying that he will so in Portugal you already have the Liberal Wars getting ready to start, while Brasil is fighting Argentina.

Wasn't Maria supposed to marry Miguel anyway? IF João's Brazilian ambitions were serious (as the terms of the treaty suggest) he could very well arrange for it without Pedro. Now, as for Miguel's absolutist plans, they can be easily butterflied away after the more than suspicious deaths of both his father João (OTL) and his brother Pedro (ATL).

And then there's another problem, would João be in a position to offer help to Brasil against Argentina?

He would be able to, at least, help in the blockade of the Rio de la Plata. During OTL Cisplatine War the Brazilian Navy had some trouble with Argentinean pirates, the presence of more seasoned sailors and a handful of ships can suffocate even more the Argentinean economy during war.

Also, by the final moments of the war the UK and France were already thinking of direct intervention over their commercial losses in Argentina. The French even blockaded the port of Recife for some months due to the Brazilian blockade of the Rio de la Plata. I bet France would take such direct measures if another European nation was involved; that is to say, probably the Portuguese diplomatic importance can diminish international pressure over the Cisplatine question.
 
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Aren't you guys forgeting Dona Leopoldina?She was pretty much alive at the time,she was a shrwed politician,better than Pedro,even culturally and intelecually more prepared than him to govern,and most importantly,was adored by the people(all classes),and had way more credibility thanher husband.Dona Leopoldina had already been Brazil's regente before,governing the country when Pedro was away.To say nothing that according to some historians she was offered the crown,to be empress while princess Maria da Gloria was under age.No way inmy mind that in the case of Pedro's death she would not be offered the regency.She was a huge political piece at the time
 
Just a note;Dom Pedro I first born daughter was princess Matia da Gloria,future Dona Maria II of Portugal,and Dona Maria I was the crazy grandmother of Dom Pedro I.Princess Maria Januária was his second daughter.
 
Wasn't Maria supposed to marry Miguel anyway? IF João's Brazilian ambitions were serious (as the terms of the treaty suggest) he could very well arrange for it without Pedro. Now, as for Miguel's absolutist plans, they can be easily butterflied away after the more than suspicious deaths of both his father João (OTL) and his brother Pedro (ATL).

Dona Maria da Gloria actually maried her unvle Don Miguel,by proxy,the Pope anuled the the Mariane after he usurped her crown.
 
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