WI: Joanna's faction wins the Castillian Succession War?

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
The War of the Castillian Succession (1475-1479) was the conflict that pitted Isabella of Castile, who was the stepsister of Henry IV de Trastamara, and OTL Isabella I, against the pretender and Henry's daughter Joanna la Beltraneja. The conflict pitted Aragon fighting for Isabella against Joanna's faction supported by Portugal and France.

The war ended with Alfonso V renouncing his claim to the Castillian and Aragonese throne, and likewise, Ferdinand II and Isabella I renouncing their claim to the Portuguese throne. Not to mention Joanna losing her claim as Queen regnant of Castile and Queen consort of Portugal.

Now what if somehow, Joanna's faction would've succeeded in winning the war? What would become of Isabella? Would Portugal unite with Castile in a personal Union, and perhaps form an alternate Spain with/without Aragon? And what of Aragon? It could possibly threaten Aragonese claims to Rousillon and Italy (at the time Sardinia, and Sicily).
 
They could have worked something out with their children's marriages. Hell, given what we know from OTL that's the most likely option. The Infanta Isabella of Aragon could wed the Infante Alfonso of Portugal, and the Infante Juan be tentatively betrothed to a daughter of Alfonso V/La Beltraneja.

Alternatively Alfonso V gets rid of La Beltraneja and Beltraneja is pledged to the Infante Juan, as OTL.
 
Now what if somehow, Joanna's faction would've succeeded in winning the war? What would become of Isabella? Would Portugal unite with Castile in a personal Union, and perhaps form an alternate Spain with/without Aragon?

No, at least not directly. She was 13 and he old and in poor health when they were married. Afonso will probably die before she is in conditon to bear children and the crown of Portugal will go to John II anyway.

And what of Aragon? It could possibly threaten Aragonese claims to Rousillon and Italy (at the time Sardinia, and Sicily).

Insular Italy not for sure, since they are beyond the logistical capacity of Portugal and France at this point. The Roussillon depends of how this affects to Aragon's cappability to project power on continental Italy. IOTL it was ceded back as a futile attempt to have it recognzing the French claim to Naples. It is in France's best interest to cultivate good relations witch Castile since she will be able to attack Aragon from the back if it tries to contest France's interests in Italy.

Without knowing more, I wonder also if the absence of a rising 'Spanish' power in the western Mediterranean by 1492 will mean that Rodrigo Borgia is not elected Pope that year.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
No, at least not directly. She was 13 and he old and in poor health when they were married. Afonso will probably die before she is in conditon to bear children and the crown of Portugal will go to John II anyway.

Could this be rectified by John marrying Joanna? If not, does that screw Portugal out of a shot of uniting with Castile?

Insular Italy not for sure, since they are beyond the logistical capacity of Portugal and France at this point. The Roussillon depends of how this affects to Aragon's cappability to project power on continental Italy. IOTL it was ceded back as a futile attempt to have it recognzing the French claim to Naples. It is in France's best interest to cultivate good relations witch Castile since she will be able to attack Aragon from the back if it tries to contest France's interests in Italy.
That could prove to be an interesting Italian Wars scenario, with Aragon diplomatically isolated and prone to an attack by France.

Without knowing more, I wonder also if the absence of a rising 'Spanish' power in the western Mediterranean by 1492 will mean that Rodrigo Borgia is not elected Pope that year.
Probably not, considering Borgia was seen as an independent candidate compared to Ascanio Sforza (seen as pro-Milanese) and Guiliano della Rovere (seen as pro-French). I guess with the conflict going on in a hypothetical scenario, I think he would possibly be seen as (pro-Aragonese) and thus has a less likely chance to win...but considering how the election turned out, I don't think it would have made a difference.

Another question that had just slipped my mind...what would become of Granada? Would they capitalize on Aragonese weakness and move to take back some of the lands in the name of Al-Andalus?
 
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I think any significant Muslim expansion in Iberia would result in some kind of crusade against them.

Also, John was already married at this point (to his cousin Leonor of Viseu). Him marrying his father's widow/ex-wife is unlikely, to say the least.
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
I think there would've been a crusade against Granada regardless...

so it's pretty safe to say that a Joanna victory would probably curtail a union between Castile and Aragon for some time, which means a later Spanish unification.
 
Could this be rectified by John marrying Joanna? If not, does that screw Portugal out of a shot of uniting with Castile?

John was already married, though oddly one of John's sons might be available for that...

Probably not, considering Borgia was seen as an independent candidate compared to Ascanio Sforza (seen as pro-Milanese) and Guiliano della Rovere (seen as pro-French). I guess with the conflict going on in a hypothetical scenario, I think he would possibly be seen as (pro-Aragonese) and thus has a less likely chance to win...but considering how the election turned out, I don't think it would have made a difference.

Well, bear in mind that Borgia's predecesor Innocent VIII was also on the Aragonese camp. Could his election have been affected?

Another question that had just slipped my mind...what would become of Granada? Would they capitalize on Aragonese weakness and move to take back some of the lands in the name of Al-Andalus?

They don't have the materials nor the numbers, and besides, they don't even border it.

Funny thing is that, assuming that Muley Hacen miscalculates as bad as IOTL and still attacks Castile in 1482 (his kingdom was on the verge of civil war and he stupidly believed that pocking the united Castilian-Aragonese behemoth would unite it under his rule and that he would get away with that) the only way Granada can survive is if Aragon helps it just to spit on Castile, and Castile ends deciding that taking some border towns/territory out of it plus restored tributes is enough reward rather than going for the absolute destruction of OTL. That would leave us with an even rumper Granada living some more decades of borrowed time. How much? Well, probably only until the Ottoman threat unites Castile and Aragon in a common front and they decide that a Muslim presence in the Peninsula is too much of a threat to both.
 
Funny thing is that, assuming that Muley Hacen miscalculates as bad as IOTL and still attacks Castile in 1482 (his kingdom was on the verge of civil war and he stupidly believed that pocking the united Castilian-Aragonese behemoth would unite it under his rule and that he would get away with that) the only way Granada can survive is if Aragon helps it just to spit on Castile, and Castile ends deciding that taking some border towns/territory out of it plus restored tributes is enough reward rather than going for the absolute destruction of OTL. That would leave us with an even rumper Granada living some more decades of borrowed time. How much? Well, probably only until the Ottoman threat unites Castile and Aragon in a common front and they decide that a Muslim presence in the Peninsula is too much of a threat to both.
I was under the impression that protracted sieges (absolute destruction) done in the Granada War were very much due to the Catholic Monarchs. Without them the fighting would be more likely be about raids and border settlements than the absolute destruction you mentioned. Whether that's because the centralization the Catholic Monarchs did allowed them to fight a war of conquest or because of different mentality I don't know. Was that wrong?
 

Razgriz 2K9

Banned
John was already married, though oddly one of John's sons might be available for that...

Depending on if either monarch wants a union with the Kingdom of Portugal, I think that leaves her with Alfonso of Portugal.

Well, bear in mind that Borgia's predecesor Innocent VIII was also on the Aragonese camp. Could his election have been affected?

Quite possibly, though considering how he acted against Naples in 1486 and attempted to let the French claim Naples, OTL the "Aragonese camp" of Innocent VIII might be a bit debatable.

They don't have the materials nor the numbers, and besides, they don't even border it.

Funny thing is that, assuming that Muley Hacen miscalculates as bad as IOTL and still attacks Castile in 1482 (his kingdom was on the verge of civil war and he stupidly believed that pocking the united Castilian-Aragonese behemoth would unite it under his rule and that he would get away with that) the only way Granada can survive is if Aragon helps it just to spit on Castile, and Castile ends deciding that taking some border towns/territory out of it plus restored tributes is enough reward rather than going for the absolute destruction of OTL. That would leave us with an even rumper Granada living some more decades of borrowed time. How much? Well, probably only until the Ottoman threat unites Castile and Aragon in a common front and they decide that a Muslim presence in the Peninsula is too much of a threat to both.
Considering that even in its weakened state, it took the Castillians and Aragonese ten years to successfully subjugate Granada, I think unless the Ottomans keep them propped up, capitalizing on such a move might buy them at least another 25 years maximum.
 
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I think there would've been a crusade against Granada regardless...

so it's pretty safe to say that a Joanna victory would probably curtail a union between Castile and Aragon for some time, which means a later Spanish unification.

There would have been a crussade against Granada, yes, unless... the Portuguese attempts to involve Granada in the civil war would have succeeded. I wonder if being among the "winning" nations would have helped stabilize their position as more than just a fruit ripe for the taking.
 
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