WI: Joanna 'The Mad' and Philip of Burgundy only had daughters and no surviving sons?

I was here thinking after the last post... Wouldn't it be a little nonsensical to make Eleanor give up her claims to the crowns of her maternal grandparents and instead receive Burgundy as her dowry? Indisputably Castile and Aragon are the richest and most politically interesting countries amongst her inheritance. I know that Henry VIII was planning to marry her but ITTL she would have 5 younger sisters to replace her. Also, I have switched some husbands again. Oh, the marriage politics... Try to imagine how damn difficult it would be nowadays to force people into loveless marriages in order to replace bureaucratic diplomacy? Geez...

I'll correct the list above with my suggestions. If any of you think it'd be also implausible vis-a-vis the political situation of the time or any other factors, do not hesitate in correcting me:

Eleanor of Austria - Queen of Castile and Aragon by her own right, married to John III of Portugal, thus Queen-consort of that nation.
Margaret fo Austria - Archduchess of Austria by her own right, according to some kind of Pragmatic Sanction. Marries either William IV, Duke of Bavaria or his brother Louis X. If one of them is elected the Holy Roman Emperor, she'd be Holy Roman Empress and innaugurate the Wittelsbach dinasty. Would the fusion of Bavaria and Austria be viable?
Isabella of Burgundy - Duchess of Burgundy/Netherlands by her own right. Married to Henry VIII as second wife, if for some butterflying reason his first wife Catherine dies in birth or by any other mean. If I get it correctly, in other words this would mean the annexation of Benelux+Franche-Comté to England inheritance, and would pose as a threat to France, or am I wrong?
Barbara of Austria - Would it be too crazy if Barbara is appanaged with the Franche-Comté and marries maybe to Francis I of France? This would mean in other words that the Habsburgs are admitting their "defeat" in face of Burgundian inheritance, but maybe this would bring some advantages to the Habsburg side?
Mary of Austria - Again, no changes. Queen of Hungary and Bohemia by her marriage to Louis II.
Catherine of Austria - Switching places with Barbara. Being only 4 years younger than Prince Christian of Oldenburg, but too young to marry the decadent and ramshackle Christian II of Denmark, she could be selected as bride to the young king before the formal rupture between Danish and Catholic churches happen.
 
The remarkable thing about this period of time is that there are still a remarkable array of little houses and pretenders to consider too.
 
Admitting defeat regarding the Burgundian Inheritance, seems unlikely at this point, this doesn't mean that Franche Comté can't go to France by marriage, provided the Habsburgs get something in return, probably recognition of a Habsburg Milan and France renouncing any claims on Naples (the latter would be quite symbolic).
 
Admitting defeat regarding the Burgundian Inheritance, seems unlikely at this point, this doesn't mean that Franche Comté can't go to France by marriage, provided the Habsburgs get something in return, probably recognition of a Habsburg Milan and France renouncing any claims on Naples (the latter would be quite symbolic).

Or Roussillon returning to Aragon.
 
Admitting defeat regarding the Burgundian Inheritance, seems unlikely at this point, this doesn't mean that Franche Comté can't go to France by marriage, provided the Habsburgs get something in return, probably recognition of a Habsburg Milan and France renouncing any claims on Naples (the latter would be quite symbolic).

And France will do this because... why?

I really don't think people quite appreciate the weakness of the Habsburg position in this situation. They are literally relying on the rest of Europe to keep their promises when Maximilian dies. That's not a good place to be.
 
And France will do this because... why?

I really don't think people quite appreciate the weakness of the Habsburg position in this situation. They are literally relying on the rest of Europe to keep their promises when Maximilian dies. That's not a good place to be.

This is a very good point. The world is vastly different with so early a demise of the Hapsburgs.
 
And France will do this because... why?

I really don't think people quite appreciate the weakness of the Habsburg position in this situation. They are literally relying on the rest of Europe to keep their promises when Maximilian dies. That's not a good place to be.

Otherwise I can't see the Habsburg disattach Franche Comté for the rest of their Burgundian domains.

In which case giving Milan (if possible) and a Habsburg bride to a younger son of the king of France, would be more plausible.
 
Otherwise I can't see the Habsburg disattach Franche Comté for the rest of their Burgundian domains.

In which case giving Milan (if possible) and a Habsburg bride to a younger son of the king of France, would be more plausible.

Or Francis could try to do what he did IOTL, and try to settle it with the sword. You know, against a foe that is likely weaker, more divided, and with far less legitimacy that its OTL counterpart.

Again--you all seem to be assuming that Maximilian can work this massive arrangement out, and the rest of Europe will just nod and smile, and that will pretty much be that. It didn't really work very well in the 18th century--it will not work at all in the 16th. The moment Maximilian dies, the Habsburg power bloc dies with him, and his descendants all start scrambling for what they can hold.
 
Oh wow, good to see the revival of interest on my threat hah

Anyway, aren't you all guys being a little bit too pessimistic? Certainly the death of the male Habsburg line will be used by other European powers to take advantage of this to rise, but if Maximilian makes powerful alliances before he dies, probably the position of his granddaughters will be a lot less difficult... Kinda.

Eleanor will be the safest princess here, being herself the undisputed heir to the Spanish domains and married to another powerful prince (later king). She and John III would build an immeasurable overseas empire together, both in America and in Asia. She would resume what her grandmother was building back in the end of 15th century and I don't believe that many nobles will have balls to defy her (at least in her suo jure maternal territories).

Her sisters left in Austria/Burgundy, however, will certainly have gloomy and complicated times ahead:

Assuming that Margaret marries one of the Wittelsbach brothers, who would it be? Marrying William IV would mean (if the aforementioned Pragmatic Sanction to make her the heir of Austria takes place) Bavaria and Austria becoming a single territorry (maybe Kingdom of Austria-Bavaria?), while marrying Louis X could not lead to the expected results wanted by Maximilian.

Supposing that Henry VIII marries Isabella after the (butterflies) death of Catherine of Aragon, around 1520 or earlier, there would be no real need (yet) for him to break with Rome. England would be, still, a Catholic country, and Henry VIII could be a potential candidate to the Holy Roman Empire. If Isabella is still the heir of Burgundy/Netherlands, what would be the subsequent implications of a personal union between Benelux and England?

Mary's husband Louis is a fancy and mentally unstable teenager with a fond for danger, being already the king of three countries (Croatia, Hungary and Bohemia), he wouldn't be thought as a suitable emperor either.

If as I suggested Catherine (or Barbara) marries Christian III of Denmark, well, he would later be one of the main princes of the Protestant reformation. I don't see the southern catholic forces inside HRE taking it easily, and he would find some resistance. Is his election viable or definitely not?

Catherine/Barbara (the one left unmarried) will have three options: 1) marrying Francis I of France in a way of creating an alliance, 2) marrying a minor noble and living a politically stable life, 3) dying a spinster/nun. What do you prefer? Things are getting scary, let's make them scarier.
 
Last edited:
First post and all, yada yada :)

One thing I find interesting to consider is that the Wittelsbachs were the last non-Burgundians to have significant influence in the Netherlands. Holland and Hainaut, to be precise. While it makes sense to partition the Empire between sisters, if there's a Wittelsbach-Habsburg wedding I would expect said couple to go after Austria and Burgundy both.

So, in my opinion, the safest choice would be a two-way split: A Spanish-Italian part going to the eldest daughter with a possible Portuguese wedding, and an Austrian-Burgundian part going to the next daughter married to a German prince (where a Bavarian Wittelsbach seems the most obvious, though a Palatine Wittelsbach, a Hohenzollern or a Wettin might also work). There would undoubtedly still be bickering over Milan, but Naples should be relatively safely Spanish.

This does leave the other daughters with little, so one of them would undoubtedly marry Louis of Bohemia-Hungary, and if the Habsburgs have any sense they'll marry one daughter to an English or a Scandinavian (a French match is bound to be too volatile, IMO: it would only give France yet another claim to push). Any spare daughters will be a good way to help the primary German heir keep his position (mollifying the German princes with a good marriage seems a more likely prospect than doing that for France).


Assuming this split, the future is going to look... interesting. With no united Habsburg realm, the Austro-Bavarian-Burgundian chunk has lots of incentive to go protestant or at least tolerant. It also seems to me it would be in a better position to centralize the Burgundian inheritance and even the HRE (with Bavaria on board, and the Palatine Wittelsbachs possibly thinking unifying things might be good - since they're one of the most obvious usurpers of such a realm). This will inevitably lead to the French and everyone else trying their hardest to break it apart, but if Milan goes to the Spanish daughter that may be just enough to distract the French.

Spain itself will probably actually benefit from a split, as the Burgundian lands, while rich, were a massive drain once the Dutch revolt started (an event which, IMO, is not as likely to happen with a tolerant German Emperor ruling them, instead of a hardline Spanish King-Emperor), and a union with Portugal might then be slightly more stable (as the Dutch won't be seizing Portuguese colonies anytime soon).

The biggest question to me is Bohemia. I am assuming the Ottomans will not be butterflied from crushing Hungary, so who does Bohemia turn to? On the one hand, the Austrian candidate is far more powerful - but on the other, the Palatinate would now offer a good countercandidate who is both supposedly on the Austrian's side - and the Austrians will be far more occupied with their Burgundian lands. And, of course, the rise of Wittelsbach power (now heading to two feudal electorates) will cause half the Germans to immediately scramble to stop them. With Bohemia and the Palatinate in its pocket, and large influence over the electoral Bishops, the Wittelsbachs would be at least as securely electable as the Habsburgs were.

And Bohemia is critical because it decides the fate of the ABB realm. Without Bohemia, the Burgundian lands are bound to become the most important part of the realm (being rich, large, and safe from the Turks), which will probably see them become a serious country. With Bohemia, the Bavarian-Austrian-Bohemian part may remain the most important, which will probably lead to a Turkish focus of the new realm, and friction with the Burgundian lands (which might allow the French to profit).
 
One thing I find interesting to consider is that the Wittelsbachs were the last non-Burgundians to have significant influence in the Netherlands. Holland and Hainaut, to be precise. While it makes sense to partition the Empire between sisters, if there's a Wittelsbach-Habsburg wedding I would expect said couple to go after Austria and Burgundy both.

So, in my opinion, the safest choice would be a two-way split: A Spanish-Italian part going to the eldest daughter with a possible Portuguese wedding, and an Austrian-Burgundian part going to the next daughter married to a German prince (where a Bavarian Wittelsbach seems the most obvious, though a Palatine Wittelsbach, a Hohenzollern or a Wettin might also work). There would undoubtedly still be bickering over Milan, but Naples should be relatively safely Spanish.

You're totally right about it, now I understand why people on the other thread were so reluctant on allowing further sons by Joanna and Philip to inherit the four domains of their grandparents separately. The richest and biggest domains, inherited from their maternal grandparents, would go to Eleanor, while Burgundy and Austria from their paternal grandparents (politically, geographically and culturally much more alike) would go to the second. Very reasonable indeed! :)

[...] if the Habsburgs have any sense they'll marry one daughter to an English or a Scandinavian [...]

As suggested, when Christian II of Kalmar Union is thrown from power, the Habsburgs could take advantage of it and marry one of the girls to Christian III of Denmark, the former king's first cousin and Protestant heir to his father king Frederick. What about marrying another to Gustav I of Sweden? In this scenario the Habsburg family would be much more Protestantism-friendly, I guess it wouldn't be a problem to stabilish personal connections to the nation that would eventually become literally a nordic empire. What about this? Maybe Catherine is choosen, being the youngest and the only one left unmarried around late 1520s.

Spain itself will probably actually benefit from a split, as the Burgundian lands, while rich, were a massive drain once the Dutch revolt started (an event which, IMO, is not as likely to happen with a tolerant German Emperor ruling them, instead of a hardline Spanish King-Emperor), and a union with Portugal might then be slightly more stable (as the Dutch won't be seizing Portuguese colonies anytime soon).

The two paragraphs about Bohemia and Hungary

The Austrians would not get Bohemia with no Anne of Bohemia and Hungary to transmit her claims to her husband, after all there wouldn't be any husband (Ferdinand I IOTL). With Louis II not dying at Mohács and leaving the effective government to his grandfather-in-law Maximilian and wife Mary (with some share in participation by their Bavarian brothers-in-law), the fate of Hungary-Croatia-Bohemia probably would be a lot less ill-fated than it was IOTL, I believe. Maybe somehow they find a way to conciliate interests between Austrians-Bavarians-Hungarians and the Ottomans, balancing assertively the power in southeastern Europe. Trade treaties, territorial division and maybe diplomatic marriages could take place in order to curb the Ottomans. I wonder about the Transylvanian Zápolyas, though...
 
Spain itself will probably actually benefit from a split, as the Burgundian lands, while rich, were a massive drain once the Dutch revolt started (an event which, IMO, is not as likely to happen with a tolerant German Emperor ruling them, instead of a hardline Spanish King-Emperor), and a union with Portugal might then be slightly more stable (as the Dutch won't be seizing Portuguese colonies anytime soon).

I came to the same conclusions in my timeline. :cool:
 
Oh wow, good to see the revival of interest on my threat hah

Anyway, aren't you all guys being a little bit too pessimistic? Certainly the death of the male Habsburg line will be used by other European powers to take advantage of this to rise, but if Maximilian makes powerful alliances before he dies, probably the position of his granddaughters will be a lot less difficult... Kinda.

Eleanor will be the safest princess here, being herself the undisputed heir to the Spanish domains and married to another powerful prince (later king). She and John III would build an immeasurable overseas empire together, both in America and in Asia. She would resume what her grandmother was building back in the end of 15th century and I don't believe that many nobles will have balls to defy her (at least in her suo jure maternal territories).

Her sisters left in Austria/Burgundy, however, will certainly have gloomy and complicated times ahead:

Assuming that Margaret marries one of the Wittelsbach brothers, who would it be? Marrying William IV would mean (if the aforementioned Pragmatic Sanction to make her the heir of Austria takes place) Bavaria and Austria becoming a single territorry (maybe Kingdom of Austria-Bavaria?), while marrying Louis X could not lead to the expected results wanted by Maximilian.

Supposing that Henry VIII marries Isabella after the (butterflies) death of Catherine of Aragon, around 1520 or earlier, there would be no real need (yet) for him to break with Rome. England would be, still, a Catholic country, and Henry VIII could be a potential candidate to the Holy Roman Empire. If Isabella is still the heir of Burgundy/Netherlands, what would be the subsequent implications of a personal union between Benelux and England?

Mary's husband Louis is a fancy and mentally unstable teenager with a fond for danger, being already the king of three countries (Croatia, Hungary and Bohemia), he wouldn't be thought as a suitable emperor either.

If as I suggested Catherine (or Barbara) marries Christian III of Denmark, well, he would later be one of the main princes of the Protestant reformation. I don't see the southern catholic forces inside HRE taking it easily, and he would find some resistance. Is his election viable or definitely not?

Catherine/Barbara (the one left unmarried) will have three options: 1) marrying Francis I of France in a way of creating an alliance, 2) marrying a minor noble and living a politically stable life, 3) dying a spinster/nun. What do you prefer? Things are getting scary, let's make them scarier.

You are going to have to consider as well, that with no sons to inherit, that the desirability as potential matches will be somewhat greater, most of the negotiations are likely to occur along with marriages at an earlier time. Francis is likely to be still married to his first wife. he will though Marry whoever is left if there is one unmarried. He will want Flanders and Artois minimum, nothing else.., They have only just lost the French claim there in favour of the Empire. he will want it back. He will want as much as he can get...the Free County, which they did hold for a time but returned to Maxy, perhaps Hainault (preferably both). If he doesn't get them he WILL take them.
The potential opposition is likely far more fragmented, unless Spain itself steps up to the plate, not a given if Spain does not have at least an indirect sovereignty somewhere, otherwise there is nothing in it for them.

There is no sense with so many daughter's in keeping the collection of the Burgundian inheritance together as a cohesive unit. That's where the less senior daughters should receive their dowries and potential inheritance and married to other princes of the Empire to build support and solidarity within the Empire. Logical division should be Flanders (Co. or Gd D given Artois and or Hainault may also be attached, Brabant (with points north and Limbourg/Gelre (GD) and Luxembourg. Free Co. could be attached to one of these, Spain or Austria.

With 6 daughters then, it also would make sense to reconstitute Naples and Sicily for the 2nd/3rd daughter Margaret/Isabella or Catherine as the only Spanish born princess

Negotiations with Francis after Claude dies will be difficult and complicated to say the least. Eleanor as the most senior heir-general "should" receive Castille/Aragon, but it is not a given. The daughter receiving Austria should marry Louis of Hungary ( Your going to have to figure something out for Anne, his sister, since she won't be able to marry Ferdinand) or a Wittelsbach of Bavaria (your choice). If Louis, then whoever gets Brabant or Luxembourg could be married to a Wittelsbach instead ( again take your pick, but the senior line already has holdings in the Rhineland remember).
 
Well, I am unsure; Charles V was just around the corner historically to officially unite the Dutch/Burgundian provinces, which had for a large part been together for a century. 50 years later they initially rebelled as one (before, of course, being divided by smart politicking from Farnese).

The Burgundian-Austrian union could be split, to be sure, but who would you give it to? Burgundy is always going to be vulnerable to the French, but it's also very rich. Uniting it so the Emperor has to defend it against the French in exchange for its riches seems a sensible move.

In addition, the more sisters have power near eachother, the more they can compete. The histories are replete with succession wars between sons-in-law over their wives' inheritances. Austria-Burgundy and Spain-Naples seem like stable powerblocs that can fend off both the French and any gre3edy sublings.
 
Theoretically, anybody's an option. In practice, Frederick suffers from being only the heir-presumptive to the Palatinate when the election is likely to occur.

Here stands the issues...

With his son's death and no male heirs, Maximillian is likely to want to try and steer things onto a grandson-in-law. The problem is that the grandson-in-laws are likely to be...

Manuel I, the King of Portugal (not happening.)
Christian II, King of Denmark (could happen, but he's an unstable flake)
Louis II, King of Hungary (too young, and another unstable flake)

Assuming that you haven't got a gender-switched Charles or Ferdinand in the mix to marry off to some promising German prince... well, that's not a very promising crop. The Electors are likely going to nod at Maximillian and then choose who they like. Out of that entire bunch, Christian's the most likely to wind up with the Imperial crown--and I very much doubt he'd keep it.

Simply put--the ball is very much in the Electors' court here.

Don't forget the dukes of Bavaria (dunno if they can stand for candidacy) are the children of Maximilian's sister; and the elector of Saxony and the margrave of Baden the descendant of his aunts.

Then there's the question of whether Eleanor won't be married to the duke of Calabria to prevent a Portuguese take-over (unlikely, but still) of the Spanish inheritance. Also, Isabella and Catherine still have question marks hanging over whether they would marry the same as OTL, IMHO.

And Ferdinand of Aragon loved his double-dealing and backstairs politicking - two of his OTL daughters were betrothed to Francisco I of Navarre and Ferrante II of Naples on the condition that they could hold onto their thrones. Ferdinand at the same time that he was doing that, was busy organizing armies or counter-alliances against them.
 
Top