WI: Joanna la Beltraneja wins the Castillan Succession War

I honestly don't know about that. Sixteenth century Lisbon was filled with people speaking Castilian. Whenever I think of Portugal and Castile uniting before the sixteenth century, I always wonder about the fate of the Portuguese language. There were more Castilians back then. And if Lisbon is chosen as the capital, it might turn into a Castilian speaking city surrounded by a Portuguese speaking suburban area.

I doubt Lisbon could ever become Castillan city. I do envisage some Castillan elites settling there after it becomes the capital, but, as I have already established, these elites will be relatively small ITTL and many of them will have recent Portuguese blood in their families. I think it's likely they'd get lusified.

Now, that said, there will always be more Castillans than Portuguese and I'm not sure if the Portuguese language can entrench itself in Castile even though it is the language of the elites, so it's hard to make predictions regarding language in the long term. It's also important to note that in the 16th century Portuguese and Castillan were considerably different from what they are now.
 
How would Portugal run her new world colonies?

This is actually an important question. IOTL the Portuguese Empire operated in a very different way from the Spanish one. A very good example of this is what both countries did when they needed a place to trade with China: Portugal rented a small port in southern guangdong while Spain conquered an enourmous archipelago in southeast asia.

An other difference was that Portugal tended to run its empire in a very centralized manner.

Since the house of Aviz is in charge ITTL I guess that Portugal-Castile would have a centralist bent as well. But could they aim for larger colonies now that they have more population, troops and resources?
 
Can you elaborate on that? How does Portugal and Castile forming a personal union help Ming China?

It depends on if they conquer the Inca, but if they don't and the Inca makes it, its a big win for China. OTL Spanish silver caused rampant inflation in the Chinese monetary system which led to severe devaluation of the Imperial treasury, and then the silver was cut off by the Spanish court when it cracked down on smuggling from the Philippines, just as the Chinese were implementing economic reforms to deal with the inflation.

Here, it would be greatly different. VERY different.


Hmm, does the final conquest of Grenada go any differently ITTL?

Well, all the Jews and Muslims won't be killed, or kick out with nothing, that be nice.
 
Hmm, does the final conquest of Grenada go any differently ITTL?

The level of religious nuttery would probably be lower in Portugal-Castile than it was in OTL's Spain. Hostility towards muslims would still surely be present, but I'd say it's rather likely it would be tamer. Actually, I remember reading somewhere that Portugal tried to convince Granada to join the Castillan succession war on their side, so having them accept could actually be the PoD for this timeline. If that the case, maybe the Emirate even has a chance at surviving.
 
Any European conquistador who comes across the Inca is going to want to conquer it, and the combination of disease-induced mortality and unclear succession (civil wars over succession being very much the rule rather than the exception) they are likely to stumble upon it during an unstable period. OTL both the Aztecs and Inca were conquered by Castilian forces on a shoe-string budget, and I don't see why changing the ruler of Spain will change that (as a Portugal-Castile union will be able to be much more aggressive in its colonization efforts than even OTL Portugal was).

And the effect of Spanish silver in the fall of the Ming is somewhat over-stated; Ming had a lot of other issues going on, and never had a good military solution to dealing with nomadic raiders (indeed, nomads had already defeated and captured one Ming Emperor before Columbus was even born).
 
OK no offense @Joao97 , but I don't understand why we're assuming a permanent Castilian-Portuguese union. The logic simply isn't there or paper thin. First off, its highly likely Alfonso and Joanna produce at least one child before the former's death in 1481 (assuming he dies on schedule; Alfonso was only 49 and his health seemed broken by the collapse of his and Joanna's cause in the succession war). That child, boy or girl, is heir to the throne. Second, this isn't the middle ages where men can get away with usurping their wives territories and even legitimate lines of succession; the only potential way for Alfonso to pass the throne to João II is if Joanna died young and childless. However, such a scenario would simply have Fernando and Isabel move into Castile with the support of the country and expel the Portuguese. So if your wanting a Castilian-Portuguese union your best bet is for Alfonso to marry Joanna to his own son João instead of marrying her himself. Or have Alfonso and Joanna have a son before the former dies, leaving Joanna as Queen Regnant of Castile. Then have João die without a son like OTL; the Portuguese throne then passes to Joanna's son. But without one of the two above scenarios this whole idea enters into very out-there territory at best, near ASB at worst.
 
OK no offense @Joao97 , but I don't understand why we're assuming a permanent Castilian-Portuguese union. The logic simply isn't there or paper thin. First off, its highly likely Alfonso and Joanna produce at least one child before the former's death in 1481 (assuming he dies on schedule; Alfonso was only 49 and his health seemed broken by the collapse of his and Joanna's cause in the succession war). That child, boy or girl, is heir to the throne. Second, this isn't the middle ages where men can get away with usurping their wives territories and even legitimate lines of succession; the only potential way for Alfonso to pass the throne to João II is if Joanna died young and childless. However, such a scenario would simply have Fernando and Isabel move into Castile with the support of the country and expel the Portuguese. So if your wanting a Castilian-Portuguese union your best bet is for Alfonso to marry Joanna to his own son João instead of marrying her himself. Or have Alfonso and Joanna have a son before the former dies, leaving Joanna as Queen Regnant of Castile. Then have João die without a son like OTL; the Portuguese throne then passes to Joanna's son. But without one of the two above scenarios this whole idea enters into very out-there territory at best, near ASB at worst.
Exactly... Castile’s line of succession was pretty clear, the only variable was Juana being the heiress or not at all in the succession but after Isabella you have the other Trastamara aka Juan II of Aragon and his children Ferdinand (of Aragon), Eleanor (of Navarre) and Juana (Queen of Naples). If Juana die without heirs will be much more complicated deny who Isabella is the legitimate Queen while if Isabella die childless Ferdinand will become King of Castile in his own right uniting it with Aragon. If he also die childless then his half-sister Eleanor will inhereit both Aragon and Castile plus her own Navarre (and before considering a Castile united to Portugal look at the (very recent) history of Navarre where Juan II of Aragon after marrying the Queen, being named King, strong of a his late wife’s will, in which she wanted Juan to rule Navarre until his own death, he was forced to fight nobility, his own son who claimed to be the rightful King of Navarre and his eldest daughter (who tried to claim the same after her brother’s death) while the younger daughter (aka Eleanor) and her husband supported Juan and waited for their crown (only of Navarre as Aragon was destined to John’s son by his second wife, aka Ferdinand, who had no right on the crown of Navarre).

You can have an united Castile-Portugal only in three ways:
1) Juana married Jõao instead of his father and their children inhereit both crowns (but Jõao was already married when Juana married Alfonso)
2) having Jõao diyong childless and a child of Juana and Alfonso inhereiting both crown
3) Juana and Alfonso have only a girl who marry the son of Jõao (work also with Jõao having only a daughter who married the son of Juana and Alfonso)

So you need an heir of Castile marrying an heir of Portugal unlike the OTL wedding (because Navarre is a clear example of what Castile will likely do if Jõao try to take that crown)
 
Yes.

Very much so.

I'm sorry. Won't do it again.

OK no offense @Joao97 , but I don't understand why we're assuming a permanent Castilian-Portuguese union. The logic simply isn't there or paper thin. First off, its highly likely Alfonso and Joanna produce at least one child before the former's death in 1481 (assuming he dies on schedule; Alfonso was only 49 and his health seemed broken by the collapse of his and Joanna's cause in the succession war). That child, boy or girl, is heir to the throne. Second, this isn't the middle ages where men can get away with usurping their wives territories and even legitimate lines of succession; the only potential way for Alfonso to pass the throne to João II is if Joanna died young and childless. However, such a scenario would simply have Fernando and Isabel move into Castile with the support of the country and expel the Portuguese. So if your wanting a Castilian-Portuguese union your best bet is for Alfonso to marry Joanna to his own son João instead of marrying her himself. Or have Alfonso and Joanna have a son before the former dies, leaving Joanna as Queen Regnant of Castile. Then have João die without a son like OTL; the Portuguese throne then passes to Joanna's son. But without one of the two above scenarios this whole idea enters into very out-there territory at best, near ASB at worst.
Exactly... Castile’s line of succession was pretty clear, the only variable was Juana being the heiress or not at all in the succession but after Isabella you have the other Trastamara aka Juan II of Aragon and his children Ferdinand (of Aragon), Eleanor (of Navarre) and Juana (Queen of Naples). If Juana die without heirs will be much more complicated deny who Isabella is the legitimate Queen while if Isabella die childless Ferdinand will become King of Castile in his own right uniting it with Aragon. If he also die childless then his half-sister Eleanor will inhereit both Aragon and Castile plus her own Navarre (and before considering a Castile united to Portugal look at the (very recent) history of Navarre where Juan II of Aragon after marrying the Queen, being named King, strong of a his late wife’s will, in which she wanted Juan to rule Navarre until his own death, he was forced to fight nobility, his own son who claimed to be the rightful King of Navarre and his eldest daughter (who tried to claim the same after her brother’s death) while the younger daughter (aka Eleanor) and her husband supported Juan and waited for their crown (only of Navarre as Aragon was destined to John’s son by his second wife, aka Ferdinand, who had no right on the crown of Navarre).

You can have an united Castile-Portugal only in three ways:
1) Juana married Jõao instead of his father and their children inhereit both crowns (but Jõao was already married when Juana married Alfonso)
2) having Jõao diyong childless and a child of Juana and Alfonso inhereiting both crown
3) Juana and Alfonso have only a girl who marry the son of Jõao (work also with Jõao having only a daughter who married the son of Juana and Alfonso)

So you need an heir of Castile marrying an heir of Portugal unlike the OTL wedding (because Navarre is a clear example of what Castile will likely do if Jõao try to take that crown)

But what about the restructuring of Castillan nobility that I mentioned in the thread?

With most of the old aristocracy gone (probably exiled or imprisioned) and new one weaker and strongly linked to Portugal, what's there to stop Afonso from becoming full king of Castile and pass the throne to João. If anything, the threat of Fernando and Isabel invading makes the "new" aristocracy more amenable to Portugal, as they would fear being displaced. Sure, the Catholic kings could maybe get some of them to switch sides by giving them assurances, but it's not nearly certain that they could be successful in expelling the Portuguese.

I don't see why the usual rules need to apply...
 
I'm sorry. Won't do it again.




But what about the restructuring of Castillan nobility that I mentioned in the thread?

With most of the old aristocracy gone (probably exiled or imprisioned) and new one weaker and strongly linked to Portugal, what's there to stop Afonso from becoming full king of Castile and pass the throne to João. If anything, the threat of Fernando and Isabel invading makes the "new" aristocracy more amenable to Portugal, as they would fear being displaced. Sure, the Catholic kings could maybe get some of them to switch sides by giving them assurances, but it's not nearly certain that they could be successful in expelling the Portuguese.

I don't see why the usual rules need to apply...
If Alfonso and Juana want keep Castile they need to make peace with a big part of the nobility of Castile or they will never be able to fully control it... replacing almost the whole aristocracy of a country is impossible. Ferdinand and Isabella were unable to do it in Castile and they had a good control and full rights on their lands... plus look at Ferdinand after Isabella’s death or to his father, full King of Navarre in his first wedding and still involved in a brutal civil war against his own son (who contested his father’s right to continue to rule in Navarre after phi’s mother’s death). Jõao will not be able to inheriting Castile from his father exactly in the same manner in which Ferdinand had not inhereited Navarre from his father. Exiling or imprisoning most of the aristocracy would make easy to depict Alfonso as a tyrant and a foreign usurper instead of the husband of the legitimate Queen, specially when the legitimacy of Juana would be always doubtful and easily questionable between her father and mother.
 
I like the idea of Juana-João marrying (I used it in my own TL actually), but I didn't change too much from OTL (Juana is still defeated, her marriage dissolved and the three kids she had with João bastardized), because I'm not TOO clued up on Iberian history pre-Catholic Monarchs. If I ever get round to redoing it, I'd definitely consider a Juanista victory in the war.
 
Well, if Juana and Alfonso are successful, and Alfonso still dies when he did OTL, Juana will be ruling for a considerable time on her own or as regent for any children of theirs, which has the potential to be very interesting. Less so, but also true should she marry João.
 
Well, if Juana and Alfonso are successful, and Alfonso still dies when he did OTL, Juana will be ruling for a considerable time on her own or as regent for any children of theirs, which has the potential to be very interesting. Less so, but also true should she marry João.

If Affonso dies without her having kids, I could see a succession war 2.0. She'd need a new husband (Francis Phoebus of Navarre or @DracoLazarus' idea of her winding up to OTL Manoel I of Portugal are the most likely candidates), too. However, I could see very few people willing to offer a prince to a queen with a contested crown, and for her te wed domestically would be a nightmare.
 
If Affonso dies without her having kids, I could see a succession war 2.0. She'd need a new husband (Francis Phoebus of Navarre or @DracoLazarus' idea of her winding up to OTL Manoel I of Portugal are the most likely candidates), too. However, I could see very few people willing to offer a prince to a queen with a contested crown, and for her te wed domestically would be a nightmare.
Actually, Manuel wanted to marry Joanna IOTL if he did not get Isabella of Aragon.
 
Juana and Alfonso were only married for three years and Juana was 13-16. I don't think it's a done deal that they wouldn't have children if married longer or that Juana would not have been able to have children with someone else.
 
exactly in the same manner in which Ferdinand had not inhereited Navarre from his father.
Ferdinand didn't have any rights to Navarra his Father had it from his first marriage Ferninand is from his fathers second marriage those Trastamara Basterds just took it with Power neglecting the real heirs of Navarra
 
Ferdinand didn't have any rights to Navarra his Father had it from his first marriage Ferninand is from his fathers second marriage those Trastamara Basterds just took it with Power neglecting the real heirs of Navarra
Why you do not read what I wrote before writing? Juan’s reasons for continuing to rule Navarre were pretty good in truth and the rebellion of Charles and Blanche was wrong under any point of view as was against their mother’s last will. I was just telling to the poster who if Alfonso of Portugal was able to take and rule Castile either as King Consort or full King he still woukd be unable to left Castile to his son João (and cited Ferdinand as an example of why it would be impossible) but would need to pass it to a child by Juana
 
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La Beltraneja could marry Manuel as second husband, Isabel of Aragon marries Francis Phoebus and Joanna of Portugal marries Charles VIII.
 
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