WI Jing Ke Kills the King of Qin

How much trouble is Qin now in (in terms of court turmoil, etc)? Would Qin still be the state to unite the remaining five, just later? Or would the other states unite against Qin, leaving one of them (Chu maybe?) to unite the realm? Generally speaking, how long is unification delayed?

And, most interesting of all (to me), does said unified state adhere to legalize governing principles? If not, how is this ATL realm different from the Qin (or, for that matter, Han) dynasty? How does all this change the history and character of TTL's *China*?

previous
 
Well, the common-est view is that Qin's advantages were so extensive compared with the other states that their death was only a matter of time. Qin had the advantage of a very developed bureaucratic system (almost totalitarian in its nature, as witnessed at Changping with everybody over 15 in a county being sent to war) due to Shang Yang, Fan Ju and Li Si's reforms. Qin, unlike the other powers, was a state that could draw on large regional resources (the Sichuan Basin, as well as the Wei River Valley) without fear of attack from another front. Qin was also helped by the fact that it had no comparable enemies, it having crushed Wei, Zhao and Chu while a combined coalition practically destroyed Qi.

Jing Ke's assassination occurred around 227BC; this would mean that Qin Shi Huang was 33 at the time. Considering ancient royal practices it's not unlikely that Qin Shi Huang would, by that time, have a son around 16 years or older; mature enough to take power. Of course the fact that Qin Shi Huang's OTL successors were actually his 17th or 18th sons (which would make them aged around 2 or 3 in 227BC) could mean that most of Qin Shi Huang's offspring died relatively early - so in that case, if Qin Shi Huang dies then Qin would be in a right mess. Li Si might still be able to steady the ship, but there's only so much he can do before the Qin royal family/Qin bureaucracy start intriguing. The remnants of early conspiracies - Lao Ai, Zhao Ji, Lu Buwei and Lady Huayang - are still out there, and they will want their power back.

I personally think the character of Qin Shi Huang is relatively important in driving the Qin unification of China, so without him I think we'd see massive and unpredictable butterflies, especially if we consider the poor historical record on the people most likely to succeed him. Those who think otherwise can well point to the accumulated systemic advantages of Qin (especially after it had already destroyed Han and most of Zhao) and say that Chinese unification under said state was inevitable.

As for its impact on China - a Qin unification of China will mean a legalist totalitarian state, no doubt - but it's important to remember that most other states were pretty much heading in that direction anyway, due to the systems needed to a) mobilize large forces to send onto the battlefield and b) 'proof' the ruling classes from being infiltrated by spies from neighboring states. I think Qin Shi Huang's megalomaniacal tendency is responsible for the massive centralization of China under his reign, but his legacy in that field was short-lived anyway as the early Han certainly did not copy his example. One could argue that if a non-Qin state unified China this would mean that the center of power shifts eastward, which would place the economic/political heart of China in areas more suitable for riverine/oceanic navigation and with less need for massive hydraulic/public works projects - that by itself would change China's destiny by some way.
 
Last edited:
What if Qin unified China anyway, despite the death of its king at the hands of Jing Ke? Could not having such a paranoid man be First Emperor lead to the Qin dynasty lasting a longer time (because if I understand correctly all the power was centralized with Qin Shihuang personally, so once he died, so did the whole thing), or would it simply hasten its downfall?
 
What if Qin unified China anyway, despite the death of its king at the hands of Jing Ke? Could not having such a paranoid man be First Emperor lead to the Qin dynasty lasting a longer time (because if I understand correctly all the power was centralized with Qin Shihuang personally, so once he died, so did the whole thing), or would it simply hasten its downfall?

Either way, I imagine lots of bananas would be thrown. :p
 
Jing Ke's assassination occurred around 227BC; this would mean that Qin Shi Huang was 33 at the time. Considering ancient royal practices it's not unlikely that Qin Shi Huang would, by that time, have a son around 16 years or older; mature enough to take power. Of course the fact that Qin Shi Huang's OTL successors were actually his 17th or 18th sons (which would make them aged around 2 or 3 in 227BC) could mean that most of Qin Shi Huang's offspring died relatively early - so in that case, if Qin Shi Huang dies then Qin would be in a right mess. Li Si might still be able to steady the ship, but there's only so much he can do before the Qin royal family/Qin bureaucracy start intriguing. The remnants of early conspiracies - Lao Ai, Zhao Ji, Lu Buwei and Lady Huayang - are still out there, and they will want their power back.
Lao Ai, Zhao Ji, Lu Buwei and Lady Huayang are all dead by this time. I agree for the rest of your post.

However, what do you think of the suggestion that Ziying was actually Qin Shi Huang's brother? That would definitely leave an adult male old enough to take the throne instead. Also, Fusu in 212 BCE was sent to assist Meng Tian, which sounds like he has some experience already. I'm thinking that if Qin Shi Huang was born in 260 BCE, then his son Fusu could feasibly have been born in 245 BCE. That leaves an adult male also available for the throne. However, the Qin royal family in 228 BCE is quite obscure and I think it's hard to know what the succession would be. Aside from the fact that we know Qin Shi Huang had quite a few sons, we don't know enough about their ages to be sure how the succession would work: and the issue of how this scenario works out depends on it.
 
What if Qin unified China anyway, despite the death of its king at the hands of Jing Ke? Could not having such a paranoid man be First Emperor lead to the Qin dynasty lasting a longer time (because if I understand correctly all the power was centralized with Qin Shihuang personally, so once he died, so did the whole thing), or would it simply hasten its downfall?

You can certainly argue that Qin Shi Huang badly destabilized the Qin Dynasty with his massive public works projects and harsh laws and so on (certainly the traditional Chinese histories do). However, the more fundamental cause of Qin resentment - its political centralization and disenfranchisement of the old elites - is probably not something anybody, especially someone less mature than Qin Shi Huang, could have changed.

After all, Legalist philosophy argues that maximizing 'state power' through law is the best way of maintaining order in the world (backed up by the metaphysical argument that 'man's nature is evil', enunciated famously by Xunzi). Qin was a Legalist state, Li Si was a Legalist, and it's almost certain that a Legalist was in charge of royal education. It would take quite some PoD for Qin China to not take the Legalist route and maximize its own power versus the power of the old elites.

A potential solution to prolonging the Qin could be to have a 'mild Legalist' (Li Si was certainly not one, nor was Han Feizi) who recognizes the resentment of the old elites (that would require far-sightedness of some amount) and leaves some autonomy for the former states - in essence, recreating the Zhou system. Realistically such a person would have to receive tremendous backing in order for his program to succeed, unlikely in the case of a less-mature successor to Qin Shi Huang.

But ultimately I think that's the real issue that bedevils Qin China and a solution has to be found for the Qin to survive. It's important to remember that the peasant rebellion of Chen Sheng/Wu Guang wasn't what ended Qin - it was the reactionary uprising of the old Warring States nobility, led by the Xiangs.
 
Lao Ai, Zhao Ji, Lu Buwei and Lady Huayang are all dead by this time. I agree for the rest of your post.

Yes, they were - but more than a few members of their cliques were still in exile in the Qin borderlands, and with intriguing in Xianyang I don't see why they couldn't be invited back in as part of some misguided plan for power.

Fusu and a brother-Ziying are certainly possibilities.
 
You can certainly argue that Qin Shi Huang badly destabilized the Qin Dynasty with his massive public works projects and harsh laws and so on (certainly the traditional Chinese histories do). However, the more fundamental cause of Qin resentment - its political centralization and disenfranchisement of the old elites - is probably not something anybody, especially someone less mature than Qin Shi Huang, could have changed.

After all, Legalist philosophy argues that maximizing 'state power' through law is the best way of maintaining order in the world (backed up by the metaphysical argument that 'man's nature is evil', enunciated famously by Xunzi). Qin was a Legalist state, Li Si was a Legalist, and it's almost certain that a Legalist was in charge of royal education. It would take quite some PoD for Qin China to not take the Legalist route and maximize its own power versus the power of the old elites.

A potential solution to prolonging the Qin could be to have a 'mild Legalist' (Li Si was certainly not one, nor was Han Feizi) who recognizes the resentment of the old elites (that would require far-sightedness of some amount) and leaves some autonomy for the former states - in essence, recreating the Zhou system. Realistically such a person would have to receive tremendous backing in order for his program to succeed, unlikely in the case of a less-mature successor to Qin Shi Huang.

But ultimately I think that's the real issue that bedevils Qin China and a solution has to be found for the Qin to survive. It's important to remember that the peasant rebellion of Chen Sheng/Wu Guang wasn't what ended Qin - it was the reactionary uprising of the old Warring States nobility, led by the Xiangs.
Maybe this wouldn't be so hard: Wang Wan suggested to Qin Shi Huang that for the states of Qi, Yan, and Chu, the Emperor should set up his sons or kinsmen as local rulers. The idea didn't extend to Han, Zhao, or Wei though. Li Si argued against the idea, so nothing came out of it. Would that idea be enough? I'm not convinced that anybody in Qin envisioned recreating the Zhou system in a way as decentralized as how Xiang Yu did it.

I can't find any information about Wang Wan, even though he was officially a chancellor, during the Qin wars of unification. I'm thinking that his idea was not a totally original one, so someone else should probably think this. If Qin Shi Huang gets assassinated and Li Si somehow leaves the political scene, maybe Qin Shi Huang's successor will adopt Wang Wan's idea and embrace some parts of the Zhou system. I don't know if it it will be enough.
 
Top