WI: Jimmy Carter chooses Barbara Jordan as his VP

In 1974, she made an influential, televised speech before the House Judiciary Committee supporting the impeachment of President Richard Nixon. Jordan was mentioned as a possible running mate to Jimmy Carter in 1976.[1] Her speech at the 1976 Democratic National Convention is considered by many historians to have been the best convention keynote speech in modern history and was ranked 5th in "Top 100 American Speeches of the 20th century" list. She was the first African-American woman to deliver the keynote address.[1]

Is there any possible way that Jimmy Carter would have chosen Barbara Jordan to be his running mate in '76? Would the republicans be able to drudge out issues about her rumored lesbianisim and disablities? How does it effect Walter Mondale's career? Any other butterflys that may occur?
 
Is there any possible way that Jimmy Carter would have chosen Barbara Jordan to be his running mate in '76? Would the republicans be able to drudge out issues about her rumored lesbianisim and disablities? How does it effect Walter Mondale's career? Any other butterflys that may occur?

Didn't you do a thread on this a while ago?

Jordan has two strikes agaisnt her that you mention: a closet lesbian and a 1973 diagnosis of MS. Take your pick which gets leaked to the press. Plus, she really wasn't all that expereinced so she compounds Carter's lack of credentials.

And then of course, regardless of her sexual preference or health, she's a black woman in 1976! Carter's election heavily relied on Southern electoral votes and the popular margin was razor thin. I'd bet on a second term for President Ford.
 
True, but I am saying she was considered by delegates at the Convention...I was trying to see if there was any POD that would make Carter want to take that Gamble or make Mondale seem less attractive to the party and the public
 
True, but I am saying she was considered by delegates at the Convention...I was trying to see if there was any POD that would make Carter want to take that Gamble or make Mondale seem less attractive to the party and the public

I don't think so. Jordan seems to hold all the possibilities for a repeat of Seargeant Shriver in 1972. From the Democratic point of view, the election is theirs to lose; this is handy way to do that. Carter had enough delegates that the VP is entirely his choice and the NY Convention is about party unity for the first time since LBJ was running with JFK's bloody shirt in 1964. The primary group Carter needed to assuage were progressive midwesterners. The primary group he needed not to piss off were white middle class votes in the Upper South and lower Midwest; Barbara Jordan does both pretty easily, even if she was something of Southern version of a 'Liberal Lion.'
 
I don't think so. Jordan seems to hold all the possibilities for a repeat of Seargeant Shriver in 1972. From the Democratic point of view, the election is theirs to lose; this is handy way to do that. Carter had enough delegates that the VP is entirely his choice and the NY Convention is about party unity for the first time since LBJ was running with JFK's bloody shirt in 1964. The primary group Carter needed to assuage were progressive midwesterners. The primary group he needed not to piss off were white middle class votes in the Upper South and lower Midwest; Barbara Jordan does both pretty easily, even if she was something of Southern version of a 'Liberal Lion.'

But if they do loose a close race to Ford, what would the career of Barbara Jordan be in the party...Might she try for Governor of Texas in the 80's if her closet secrets don't come out? How might the Presidential Race in '80 turn out, especially if Rockefeller dies in 79? Who does Ford pick as his V.P.? Would the Race look more like 2008 with a wide open field of Candidates with no successor to the current administration?
 
But if they do loose a close race to Ford, what would the career of Barbara Jordan be in the party...Might she try for Governor of Texas in the 80's if her closet secrets don't come out? How might the Presidential Race in '80 turn out, especially if Rockefeller dies in 79? Who does Ford pick as his V.P.? Would the Race look more like 2008 with a wide open field of Candidates with no successor to the current administration?

Assuming Jordan is the pick than she probably has a bit more national notoreity, but she retired from the Houe in 1979 mostly due to health reasons. I don't think she'll seek the TX Governorship, because she'll probably get the same gig she did OTL, as a professor at UT. There may a butterfly post later on.

So Ford wins in 1976. Ford had chosen Bob Dole as his running mate for '76 so Rockefeller dying is immaterial in that respect. Most likely, Ford handles the crises of the late '70s a bit better than Carter does: for one, he won't give the Malaise Speech. However, the big change came with Volcker's appointment to the Fed. Something like that is probably likely and Alan Greenspan has a prominent role to play, so the 2nd Ford Administration will take a strong stance on fighting inflation and the like, but things aren't rosy by 1980. Deregulation probably occurs but may occur faster under Ford. Probably the biggest foreign affairs differences would be a different Panama Canal treaty and a different spin on the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Process (it still happens without Carter because Sadat had come around after the '73 war, but it may take a bit longer.)

In anycase, Americans aren't as upset in 1980 TTL as they were OTL. However, the Democrats are steamed: they haven't won national office since 1964, not even after Watergate. EMK is a possible choice, but he'll have to perform much better than he did to overcome Chappaquidick. Jerry Brown may be another choice. The probelm is that the 1980 election season was so open to movement by events: the '79 energy crisis and the Tehran Hostage crisis, both of which may have been changed by Ford's leadership. Whatever events occur, the Republicans will see a fight between Reagan and Dole which is probably over whether the Republicans embrace full on supply side economics and conservative social values. It's a pretty powerful message and Dole a pretty lackluster campaigner, so Reagan probably takes the nomination. HW Bush may be something of a spoiler for Dole or he may not run so he's probably not VP.

Because of Democratic hunger, I think they turn to EMK, basically because of the 'Kennedy' effect. Carter has been relegated to political obscurity because of his antics with the Jordan nomination (and managing to bungle the '76 election, in the eyes of the DNC). Now, if Reagan is nominated as the head of a conservative movement to take the Republican party, then John Anderson's independent bid probably still happens. It may even have more support at first. As for results, on the one hand Reagan is a gifted politician. On the other, Republicans have been in power since 1968 and Reagan OTL "Are you better off" may not work as well since it will be an insult to Ford. Hence, Reagan can't run as a change candidate but nor is he the candidate bearing the banner of the Administration. EMK on the other hand is burning to run as candidate with an inspiring vision, like his brothers, but he probably doesn't have one. I'd bet on Reagan, perhaps with a closer vote. In which case, Jordan's career isn't much affected. If you could get a Democrat to win (maybe somebody other than EMK), she might be a Supreme Court nominee (Clinton considered it but she was too sick), but her personal life and medical condition are still issues.
 
Making Ms Jordan his Vice Presidential candidate would strengthen the image of Carter as a "change" candidate. Many Americans wanted change in 1976,

Furthermore a black woman on the ticket whilst putting off some voters who might sometimes vote Democrat would energise others.
 
Making Ms Jordan his Vice Presidential candidate would strengthen the image of Carter as a "change" candidate. Many Americans wanted change in 1976,

Furthermore a black woman on the ticket whilst putting off some voters who might sometimes vote Democrat would energise others.

I wonder if a black woman on the ticket would be enough to tilt the balance on the other side of things to Reagan, as opposed to Ford.
 
Making Ms Jordan his Vice Presidential candidate would strengthen the image of Carter as a "change" candidate. Many Americans wanted change in 1976,

Furthermore a black woman on the ticket whilst putting off some voters who might sometimes vote Democrat would energise others.

It would kill Carter in the South and Texas, and probably in the industrial states as well. Since Carter only won because the South went Democratic one last time, and since he won both Ohio and Pennsylvania…*that presents him with a few problems.

Any very slight help she brings, is countered by far far bigger problems. In short (and as much as VPs usually don't matter): Carter loses if she's on the ticket. He almost lost anyway, and this puts him over the edge.
 
It would kill Carter in the South and Texas, and probably in the industrial states as well. Since Carter only won because the South went Democratic one last time, and since he won both Ohio and Pennsylvania…*that presents him with a few problems.

Any very slight help she brings, is countered by far far bigger problems. In short (and as much as VPs usually don't matter): Carter loses if she's on the ticket. He almost lost anyway, and this puts him over the edge.

I think this ticket could be seen as an earlier Southern Lock Strategy. I disagree, with the idea that Texas and the South wouldn't vote with Jordan on the Ticket. I think it' would increase the black voter turnout inthose states that were very close in OTL like Virginia, Maine, Oregon, Illinois maybe even California.

Ohio probably does slightly go to Ford and we can't forget how popular Barbara Jordan was within my Texas at the time. She was even Govenor for-A-Day in 72. And with her being a strong remainder that the democrats havent gone soft on Ford after pardoning Nixon due to her speech in 1974. I think you probably have to Texas go more decisvely to Carter/Jordan

I think in that case, with more turnout with Blacks or even women...You might see alot of those close states swing to Carter/Jordan not just everyone swaying into Ford/Dole.
 
I think this ticket could be seen as an earlier Southern Lock Strategy. I disagree, with the idea that Texas and the South wouldn't vote with Jordan on the Ticket. I think it' would increase the black voter turnout inthose states that were very close in OTL like Virginia, Maine, Oregon, Illinois maybe even California.

Ohio probably does slightly go to Ford and we can't forget how popular Barbara Jordan was within my Texas at the time. She was even Govenor for-A-Day in 72. And with her being a strong remainder that the democrats havent gone soft on Ford after pardoning Nixon due to her speech in 1974. I think you probably have to Texas go more decisvely to Carter/Jordan

I think in that case, with more turnout with Blacks or even women...You might see alot of those close states swing to Carter/Jordan not just everyone swaying into Ford/Dole.

In all honesty, I think you're trying to impose the politics of the 1990s on the 1970s. For example, California wouldn't vote Democratic until 1992. It wouldn't be considered a lock for the Democrats until 1996. In 1976, the only time since Harry Truman that CA had voted Democratic was during the 1964 landslide for LBJ. Carter was running not on Bill Clinton's New Southern Strategy / Southern Lock (an appeal on economic grounds) but on the dying vestiges of the Democratic coaliton of progressive midwesterners and Southerners (of all forms).

I dispute the statement "Barbara Jordan was popular in Texas." That is not to say I disagree with it: Jordan was a well-regarded politician from the state and broke many barriers. But being Governor for a Day is simply a matter of tradition: since the 1940s, it's been customary for the Governor and the Lt. Governor to leave the state and allow the President Pro Tempore of the Senate to serve as Governor (as provided by the State Constitution). It's a consolation prize, an excuse to have a party, political theater. It doesn't mean she'd won state-wide office. It does mean that she was chosen as President Pro Tempore, but that's more indicative of the fact she was a very compotent legislator and popular among Yarborough Democrats.

The fact that by election day 1976, Ford came as close as he did is a testament to just how poor a general election campaign Carter ran. I'd argue that simply because of her inexpereince (she'd only have been a Rep for 3 years in 1976) and her medical troubles Jordan's candidacy would produce problems. Because Jordan will have been a poltical no-body, there would have been a deluge of investigation about her. And then of course, there's ample reason to suggest she might protest to Carter about the choice because of her MS. If knowledge of the MS gets out, then it becomes yet another scandal for Carter. Know things may backfire, because Carter will have more ammo to accuse Ford's campaign of fighting a 'low' campaign of dirty tricks it can also swing the other way: because a VP candidate with a health problem is way more problematic than saying "I've lusted in my heart" in a Playboy interview.

In the '70s, the fact that Jordan is a woman and black is just as likely to backfire against Carter as it is to energize a base. Nixon had won in '68 and '72 because the Republicans seemed the like the senisble candidate, the candidate of middle America, the law and order candidate -- the candidate whose not pressing for massive change. Carter wasn't the change candidate, he was the clean candidate. Yes, Jordan's toughness on Nixon emphasize that point, but Ford will begin to look better if he can continue to talk about the need for national unity while Carter brings up dirty laundry.

Take your claim that Texas might go more solidly for Carter with Jordan on the ticket. [See this map] This claim overlooks the fact that in 1976, Carter was winning lots of votes in rural areas -- areas not dominated by blacks, but by poor southern whites -- the old Democratic coalition that is about to collapse. It was Ford who won in Texas' cities, despite the high populations of minorities concentrated there. The number one thing Carter can do to lose the votes he got is to put a black woman a heartbeat away from the Presidency.

Quite simply I can imagine Archie Bunker (of All in the Family) going nutso about the idea of a Carter-Jordan ticket, no matter the appeal to some. That alone stirs me to write this rebuttal. I leave you with this refrain: "We could use a man like Herbert Hoover again..."
 
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I disagree, with the idea that Texas and the South wouldn't vote with Jordan on the Ticket. I think it' would increase the black voter turnout inthose states that were very close in OTL like Virginia, Maine, Oregon, Illinois maybe even California.

I think in that case, with more turnout with Blacks or even women...You might see alot of those close states swing to Carter/Jordan not just everyone swaying into Ford/Dole.

Whenever Democratic black turn-out increased in the South, white Republican turn-out spiked to overcome it. Carter didn't, and wouldn't, win the South because of blacks but because of whites.

Nicomacheus beat me to the rest of it, but I generally agree with what he said.
 
Another issue to consider is what does Jessie Jackson do...

Jackson spent most of the early to mid 70s working to "become" not just the leader of the "Civil Rights" movement (read Black Community in the 70s) but the only leader/major public figure. During the 76 Democrat Convention he was interviewed on the floor (by Dan Rather), the famous or infamous (depending on your) view, "Ill take the Black vote to the highest bidder" interview, during the interview he damned by faint praise all elected African-Americans.

He wouldn't be happy about a Jordan nomination, as it would make her most prominent African American win or lose (unless the Carter-Jordan ticket imploes, which as bad as the Carter team was I doubt unless...)

So I suspect he'd make is opposition very apparrent to Carter (who apparently in 76 believed Jackson was MLK's hand picked heir) and if JEC still picked her, he;'d very quickly and quietly work against them.
 
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I would think that Jesse would support the ticket no matter if he choose Jordan or not. It' just does not seem in his nature to be selfish enough to derail the first ticket with a nominated African American on. He might pull a JFK in 56 by half heartadly following behind her coataills but not through all his support behind her.
 
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