I think this ticket could be seen as an earlier Southern Lock Strategy. I disagree, with the idea that Texas and the South wouldn't vote with Jordan on the Ticket. I think it' would increase the black voter turnout inthose states that were very close in OTL like Virginia, Maine, Oregon, Illinois maybe even California.
Ohio probably does slightly go to Ford and we can't forget how popular Barbara Jordan was within my Texas at the time. She was even Govenor for-A-Day in 72. And with her being a strong remainder that the democrats havent gone soft on Ford after pardoning Nixon due to her speech in 1974. I think you probably have to Texas go more decisvely to Carter/Jordan
I think in that case, with more turnout with Blacks or even women...You might see alot of those close states swing to Carter/Jordan not just everyone swaying into Ford/Dole.
In all honesty, I think you're trying to impose the politics of the 1990s on the 1970s. For example, California wouldn't vote Democratic until 1992. It wouldn't be considered a lock for the Democrats until 1996. In 1976, the only time since Harry Truman that CA had voted Democratic was during the 1964 landslide for LBJ. Carter was running not on Bill Clinton's New Southern Strategy / Southern Lock (an appeal on economic grounds) but on the dying vestiges of the Democratic coaliton of progressive midwesterners and Southerners (of all forms).
I dispute the statement "Barbara Jordan was popular in Texas." That is not to say I disagree with it: Jordan was a well-regarded politician from the state and broke many barriers. But being Governor for a Day is simply a matter of tradition: since the 1940s, it's been customary for the Governor and the Lt. Governor to leave the state and allow the President Pro Tempore of the Senate to serve as Governor (as provided by the State Constitution). It's a consolation prize, an excuse to have a party, political theater. It doesn't mean she'd won state-wide office. It does mean that she was chosen as President Pro Tempore, but that's more indicative of the fact she was a very compotent legislator and popular among Yarborough Democrats.
The fact that by election day 1976, Ford came as close as he did is a testament to just how poor a general election campaign Carter ran. I'd argue that simply because of her inexpereince (she'd only have been a Rep for 3 years in 1976) and her medical troubles Jordan's candidacy would produce problems. Because Jordan will have been a poltical no-body, there would have been a deluge of investigation about her. And then of course, there's ample reason to suggest she might protest to Carter about the choice because of her MS. If knowledge of the MS gets out, then it becomes yet another scandal for Carter. Know things may backfire, because Carter will have more ammo to accuse Ford's campaign of fighting a 'low' campaign of dirty tricks it can also swing the other way: because a VP candidate with a health problem is way more problematic than saying "I've lusted in my heart" in a
Playboy interview.
In the '70s, the fact that Jordan is a woman and black is just as likely to backfire against Carter as it is to energize a base. Nixon had won in '68 and '72 because the Republicans seemed the like the senisble candidate, the candidate of middle America, the law and order candidate -- the candidate whose
not pressing for massive change. Carter wasn't the change candidate, he was the clean candidate. Yes, Jordan's toughness on Nixon emphasize that point, but Ford will begin to look better if he can continue to talk about the need for national unity while Carter brings up dirty laundry.
Take your claim that Texas might go more solidly for Carter with Jordan on the ticket. [See this
map] This claim overlooks the fact that in 1976, Carter was winning lots of votes in rural areas -- areas not dominated by blacks, but by poor southern whites -- the old Democratic coalition that is about to collapse. It was Ford who won in Texas' cities, despite the high populations of minorities concentrated there. The number one thing Carter can do to lose the votes he got is to put a black woman a heartbeat away from the Presidency.
Quite simply I can imagine Archie Bunker (of
All in the Family) going nutso about the idea of a Carter-Jordan ticket, no matter the appeal to some. That alone stirs me to write this rebuttal. I leave you with this refrain:
"We could use a man like Herbert Hoover again..."