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WI Jiang Jieshi, instead of taking the risk of showing up with only a small-ish bodyguard in warlord territory in northwest China to urge them into action against the communists, had instead avoided going to the area until he positioned central troops to be the dominant force in the northwest?

His lack of security exposed him to being kidnapped and to making promises to call off his planned bandit extermination campaign against the Chinese Communists who had gathered in northern Shaanxi province after their Long March.

In the ATL, where he is not kidnapped, I assume he is not compelled to call off his anticommunist campaign, and can launch a serious assault on Mao's base no later than spring 1937 -

What is the most likely result from then on?

A) Jiang destroys the communists in place with his own central forces and by press-ganging reluctant warlord forces and commanders?

B) The communists, or communists and local warlords in coalition, drive back Jiang's offensive, at least for a year?

C) The communists are defeated, put into an untenable situation, but able to escape, in which case they flee to:

1. North to asylum in Outer Mongolia (creating an interesting situation for Stalin and the Mongolian communists, which may or may not push Mongolian politics into divergent paths)

2. West to Dunhuang region of western Gansu province, the furthest and most inaccessible region with a Han Chinese majority (but minority presence of Tibetans Mongols and Muslims) that Mao might be able to hope to fortify.
The advantages would be its remoteness, combined with demographic diversity. The disadvantage would be the Red Army might be unable to survive fighting against the fiercely combative and anticommunist Muslim cavalry operating in the region.

3. Further west to Xinjiang, for an even more remote refuge, closer to the USSR. Again the advantage is comparative safety from Jiang's forces, but the disadvantage is the area is more Turkic than Chinese, limiting the CCP's prospects as a national movement

4. East into Shanxi or Hopeh province - the advantage being fame and taking on a perceived role as national defenders against Japan, the disadvantage being near-certain military destruction by the Japanese. (this circumstance brings about near certain destructiong of the Reds between Nationalist and Japanese forces, but would also bring on near-certain conflict between the Japanese and the nationalists either during or at the end of that battle).

D) Japan attacks Jiang's territories and forces before he can complete his anticommunist campaigns, simply to prevent unification, even if Jiang is following a policy of appeasement at the moment.


...thoughts.
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