With regards to tactical nuclear weapons. Has anyone got a source?
Although there were plenty of hawks in the White House, the moment mushroom clouds go up over Cuba (if they do, how many people would happily nuke their own country?), I can imagine the Politburo quickly informing Kennedy they are not involved. Which also gives them immense prestige, as it is America and Cuba that have caused the problem. Cue huge 'solidarity' aid from the Warsaw Pact - will Kennedy blockade out food and medical supplies?
If this remains a 'limited' engagement with Cuba an irradiated pit at the end, JFK will have just doomed his chances in '64, the event butterflies a hawk like Goldwater. Does it take Hiroshima on the Spanish Main to elect President Rockefeller?
Whatever happens in America's neck of the woods, detente in some form is likely, anti-nuclear groups just got all they need (British Labour had briefly gone unilateralist around this time, chance they might swing back with popular support) plus Latin American antipathy to the US also got a massive boost.
However if it goes according to plan post-Castro Cuba will be interesting. He was pretty popular in the early days and had implemented some major social reforms. America is going to want her massive slice of the economy back, and given the atmosphere of the time I sadly doubt a centre-left democracy will be brought into place. More likely an Emergency Council run by pro-US officers and politicians across the spectrum.
Does capitalist Havana dent Mafia influence in Las Vegas? Does it prove a major gateway for cocaine in the 1970s and 80s?
I agree the United States will easily keep the lid on Cuba post-1961. Problem is, for the short to mid term they
will have to keep the lid on.