WI: JFK not killed, get's re-elected?

What would have happened if there had either been no assassination attempt, or the assassin had failed to kill or seriously incapacitate Kennedy?

Suppose that Kennedy goes on to win a second term. What happens? How are his domestic and foreign policies? I'm especially curious as to what he does with Vietnam.
 
Well there are plenty of threads about this already, but I'll rehash the general consensus (or at least my thoughts) in an easy to use format:

1964 Election
-Democratic Nomination: Kennedy is challenged by George Wallace in the primaries. He is less successful than he was in OTL because of Kennedy's appeal among many of the same ethnic working class voters that supported Wallace. The President easily wins renomination. Kennedy keeps Johnson on the ticket. He had no personal problems with LBJ (though his brother did) and though he may have wanted a friend with North Carolina Terry Sanford on the ticket, it's unlikely he would have taken such a big risk.
-Republican Nomination: Goldwater defeats Rockefeller for many of the same reasons as OTL. Rockefeller's divorce and remarriage harmed him greatly among conservatives, and whoever the President was made little impact. Goldwater wins the nomination after winning California and chooses a moderate, such as Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton, as his running-mate (he only chose Bill Miller in OTL because he bugged Johnson).
-General Election: Kennedy and Goldwater campaign across the country. Kennedy's theme is peace and prosperity, while also addressing issues like Civil Rights and poverty. Goldwater attacks the President for being too soft on Communism (the withdrawal from Vietnam being the obvious example) and for presiding over the continued expansion of the federal government. They engage in a series of televised debates, in which Kennedy's style and Goldwater's "wonkish" delivery portray a stark contrast. The President easily wins reelection, but loses the Deep South and several Western states to Goldwater.

Foreign Policy
-Vietnam: Kennedy begins the planned withdrawal of military advisers in 1963 and 64. Military and economic aide are maintained. There is some debate as to whether Kennedy would backtrack and deploy ground forces if the Communists appeared likely to win.
-Cuba: An effort towards rapprochement is made by the United States. It's unlikely that there are any official policy changes, but the two nations will be on better terms.
-Latin America: Kennedy continues to push for greater diplomatic ties between the United States and our neighbors to the South. Trade and democratic reforms will be promoted. America may still intervene in the Dominican Republic revolution, but it is much less likely with Kennedy instead of Johnson in the White House.
-Europe: Stronger diplomacy between America and Europe, especially the UK. Kennedy was always interested in European affairs, far more so than LBJ. The United States maintains a better image there and our alliances are strengthened.
-China: Moving towards rapprochement but no "Kennedy in China" scenario.
-Soviet Union: Continued disarmament talks, possibly leading to an arms reduction agreement.
-Third World: A more active commitment to the Peace Corps and economic development of the Third World. Kennedy will maintain the goal of improving America's image in these nations in a way Johnson could not afford due to Vietnam. Particular assistance will be given to regimes combating Communist insurgencies.

Domestic Policy
-Civil Rights: Kennedy will not be able to get the Civil Rights Act passed in 1963 or 1964. The House Rules Committee will be forced to discharge the Civil Rights Act in early 1964, and the full House will pass the bill. But the Senate filibuster will remain intact until after the elections when the Republicans are willing to work with the President. It's likely this happens early sometime in 1965. Voting Rights may happen that year or a year later. It was more politically popular than the Civil Rights Act anyway.
-War on Poverty: Kennedy gets federal aide to public education passed in 1965. Minimum wage and Social Security increases will also be passed. Something like VISTA will also get passed, as may a Job Corps element.
-Medicare and Medicaid: These programs will have a tough time getting passed. Medicaid was much more politically popular among Southern Democrats, so that may get passed. Medicare stands a good chance, but still has to go through the conservative Senate Finance Committee. If this gets accomplished, it will be later in the President's term and after a long legislative battle.
-The Economy: Kennedy will probably get his tax-cut through Congress in 1964 or 1965. This would help stimulate demand, and the economy will continue to do well throughout the '60s. Inflation will be lower due to a smaller US commitment to Vietnam. This means stronger economic growth going forward as well.
-Urban Crime: The race riots of the 1960s will still occur, and may be larger due to the later passage of Civil Rights legislation. There was little any President could do to end the causes of the riots: poverty, lack of opportunity, and issues of a local nature.
-Counterculture: The counterculture will still arise, but will be smaller and less radical without the Vietnam War. The Beatles, Rolling Stones, and Bob Dylan will all be penning tunes that will resonate with a youth seeking a different life from their parents. If anything, the movement will be viewed more positively by the mainstream of American society because it won't be tied to draft card burning and an opposition of the President.

Legacy
-Kennedy's legacy would be generally positive. If he is able to get his domestic agenda passed in his second term, he will be viewed as a hero among Democrats and progressives. The New Frontier will be seen as a general success. But on issues of race relations and foreign policy, Kennedy will be criticized by conservatives. Urban crime and a "retreat" in the face of Communism will harm his legacy.
-1968 Election: The 1968 election would be much more favorable to the Democrats than it was in OTL. Johnson will probably win the nomination without too much opposition, as Bobby isn't ready yet and the party bosses want to put forward the strongest candidate. Johnson probably chooses Humphrey as his running-mate. However, the Democratic Party is still fracturing along class, gender, and racial lines. This began during the 1950s and will continue during this time. Civil Rights is a polarizing issue, and one which would define 1968. The Republicans will probably nominate Nixon, Romney, or Rockefeller. If they nominate Nixon, his moderate views on Civil Rights, but opposition to policies like busing and support for tough law and order, will probably give him a narrow victory.
 
I saw a documentary on Goldwater that showed him getting along with Kennedy prior to the assassination.

It might be a relatively civil election.
 
The Passage of Power came off as arguing that LBJ probably would be dropped off the ticket because of the Bobby Baker scandal. Also, Kennedy would be the same as Johnson in Vietnam; I believe even RB agrees with this now, with hcallega and Norton the most prominent advocates of the withdrawal theory. The War on Poverty is butterflied away, though Medicare/Medicaid will be pushed for (and most likely fail). JFK is seen similarly to Johnson in 1968.

I also question the assumption that JFK could magically defeat Russell on the Senate. OTL there was a gain in only two seats in the Senate for the Democrats. Johnson passed civil rights because he was the greatest parliamentarian in history, not because of those two votes. Kennedy couldn't even pass his tax cuts, in fact he was legislatively the least successful of all Presidents of the New Deal consensus. All of this ignores the hellstorm released by the Watts Riots in 1965, which delayed another Civil Rights Act until 1968. Under Johnson.

So basically, my analysis is that Kennedy is pretty much like LBJ 1964, only that he can't pass Civil Rights (maybe Voting Rights, those were easier, but the race riots that year + lack of LBJ's skill doesn't make me optimistic), Medicare/Medicaid, and there is no mention of a War on Poverty. It's ugly.
 
The Passage of Power came off as arguing that LBJ probably would be dropped off the ticket because of the Bobby Baker scandal. Also, Kennedy would be the same as Johnson in Vietnam; I believe even RB agrees with this now, with hcallega and Norton the most prominent advocates of the withdrawal theory. The War on Poverty is butterflied away, though Medicare/Medicaid will be pushed for (and most likely fail). JFK is seen similarly to Johnson in 1968.

I also question the assumption that JFK could magically defeat Russell on the Senate. OTL there was a gain in only two seats in the Senate for the Democrats. Johnson passed civil rights because he was the greatest parliamentarian in history, not because of those two votes. Kennedy couldn't even pass his tax cuts, in fact he was legislatively the least successful of all Presidents of the New Deal consensus. All of this ignores the hellstorm released by the Watts Riots in 1965, which delayed another Civil Rights Act until 1968. Under Johnson.

So basically, my analysis is that Kennedy is pretty much like LBJ 1964, only that he can't pass Civil Rights (maybe Voting Rights, those were easier, but the race riots that year + lack of LBJ's skill doesn't make me optimistic), Medicare/Medicaid, and there is no mention of a War on Poverty. It's ugly.


I obviously argue quite the contrary view. Most of my evidence comes from Robert Dallek, who is a Kennedy fan but also the most respected biographer of the man. Here's my contrary arguments:

Vietnam: No one can be sure of Kennedy's intentions at the time of his death, but multiple sources argue he was on his way out. Dallek believes this to be likely, as did Robert McNamara.

Civil Rights: Johnson did an excellent job of cajoling members of the Senate to break the filibuster, Everett Dirksen being the most notable example. But I believe that it's likely that Dirksen would have lead his fellow Republicans in support of a Civil Rights Act after the 1964 election. Why? Because if the party nominates Goldwater and is whiped-out in the North, then they will be eager to show their integrationist credentials.

War on Poverty: Kennedy called on his team of economic advisers, namely Walter Heller, to produce a "war on poverty" plan. I would argue that there would be no "Great Society," which shifted funds from investments to entitlements, but the evidence (JFK Library) is in favor of a War on Poverty.

So there you have it. There isn't any evidence that Kennedy was planning on escalating in Vietnam. Republicans breaking a Dixiecrat filibuster on civil rights would be politically wise after 1964. The War on Poverty was in the works before Johnson took office.
 
I obviously argue quite the contrary view. Most of my evidence comes from Robert Dallek, who is a Kennedy fan but also the most respected biographer of the man. Here's my contrary arguments:

Vietnam: No one can be sure of Kennedy's intentions at the time of his death, but multiple sources argue he was on his way out. Dallek believes this to be likely, as did Robert McNamara.

Civil Rights: Johnson did an excellent job of cajoling members of the Senate to break the filibuster, Everett Dirksen being the most notable example. But I believe that it's likely that Dirksen would have lead his fellow Republicans in support of a Civil Rights Act after the 1964 election. Why? Because if the party nominates Goldwater and is whiped-out in the North, then they will be eager to show their integrationist credentials.

War on Poverty: Kennedy called on his team of economic advisers, namely Walter Heller, to produce a "war on poverty" plan. I would argue that there would be no "Great Society," which shifted funds from investments to entitlements, but the evidence (JFK Library) is in favor of a War on Poverty.

So there you have it. There isn't any evidence that Kennedy was planning on escalating in Vietnam. Republicans breaking a Dixiecrat filibuster on civil rights would be politically wise after 1964. The War on Poverty was in the works before Johnson took office.

We can battle with sources all day over Vietnam and domestic policies, and aren't going to convince each other. I take Caro over Dallek any day. Even Sorenson ended up saying Johnson was a better president than Kennedy would have been during the period. I'll agree to disagree in pursuit of a more interesting question: sure, it would be good politics for the Republicans to support civil rights. Until Watts.

Assuming Kennedy, pointing to his victory over Goldwater, can praise and persuade Dirksen as Johnson did (a tall order, but made shorter by his reelection), this ignores that once the riots broke out, Dirksen said "I have no doubts whatsoever about [the Civil Rights Act of 1964's] unconstitutionality." Quite a different order than what he said in OTL 1964 ("Stronger than all the armies is an idea whose time has come.") JFK just doesn't have enough time until the riots blow the country to hell.
 
... Johnson passed civil rights because he was the greatest parliamentarian in history, not because of those two votes. Kennedy couldn't even pass his tax cuts, in fact he was legislatively the least successful of all Presidents of the New Deal consensus. All of this ignores the hellstorm released by the Watts Riots in 1965, which delayed another Civil Rights Act until 1968. Under Johnson.

There would be the argument for keeping LBJ as VP , riding out any scandal, and telling Bobby to sit on it. LBJ was badly needed by Kennedy for his history & skill with the Congress. Maybe LBJ would fail in that role as VP, but it was something JFK had to consider.
 
Well there are plenty of threads about this already, but I'll rehash the general consensus (or at least my thoughts) in an easy to use format:

1964 Election
-Democratic Nomination: Kennedy is challenged by George Wallace in the primaries. He is less successful than he was in OTL because of Kennedy's appeal among many of the same ethnic working class voters that supported Wallace. The President easily wins renomination. Kennedy keeps Johnson on the ticket. He had no personal problems with LBJ (though his brother did) and though he may have wanted a friend with North Carolina Terry Sanford on the ticket, it's unlikely he would have taken such a big risk.
-Republican Nomination: Goldwater defeats Rockefeller for many of the same reasons as OTL. Rockefeller's divorce and remarriage harmed him greatly among conservatives, and whoever the President was made little impact. Goldwater wins the nomination after winning California and chooses a moderate, such as Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton, as his running-mate (he only chose Bill Miller in OTL because he bugged Johnson).
-General Election: Kennedy and Goldwater campaign across the country. Kennedy's theme is peace and prosperity, while also addressing issues like Civil Rights and poverty. Goldwater attacks the President for being too soft on Communism (the withdrawal from Vietnam being the obvious example) and for presiding over the continued expansion of the federal government. They engage in a series of televised debates, in which Kennedy's style and Goldwater's "wonkish" delivery portray a stark contrast. The President easily wins reelection, but loses the Deep South and several Western states to Goldwater.

Foreign Policy
-Vietnam: Kennedy begins the planned withdrawal of military advisers in 1963 and 64. Military and economic aide are maintained. There is some debate as to whether Kennedy would backtrack and deploy ground forces if the Communists appeared likely to win.
-Cuba: An effort towards rapprochement is made by the United States. It's unlikely that there are any official policy changes, but the two nations will be on better terms.
-Latin America: Kennedy continues to push for greater diplomatic ties between the United States and our neighbors to the South. Trade and democratic reforms will be promoted. America may still intervene in the Dominican Republic revolution, but it is much less likely with Kennedy instead of Johnson in the White House.
-Europe: Stronger diplomacy between America and Europe, especially the UK. Kennedy was always interested in European affairs, far more so than LBJ. The United States maintains a better image there and our alliances are strengthened.
-China: Moving towards rapprochement but no "Kennedy in China" scenario.
-Soviet Union: Continued disarmament talks, possibly leading to an arms reduction agreement.
-Third World: A more active commitment to the Peace Corps and economic development of the Third World. Kennedy will maintain the goal of improving America's image in these nations in a way Johnson could not afford due to Vietnam. Particular assistance will be given to regimes combating Communist insurgencies.

Domestic Policy
-Civil Rights: Kennedy will not be able to get the Civil Rights Act passed in 1963 or 1964. The House Rules Committee will be forced to discharge the Civil Rights Act in early 1964, and the full House will pass the bill. But the Senate filibuster will remain intact until after the elections when the Republicans are willing to work with the President. It's likely this happens early sometime in 1965. Voting Rights may happen that year or a year later. It was more politically popular than the Civil Rights Act anyway.
-War on Poverty: Kennedy gets federal aide to public education passed in 1965. Minimum wage and Social Security increases will also be passed. Something like VISTA will also get passed, as may a Job Corps element.
-Medicare and Medicaid: These programs will have a tough time getting passed. Medicaid was much more politically popular among Southern Democrats, so that may get passed. Medicare stands a good chance, but still has to go through the conservative Senate Finance Committee. If this gets accomplished, it will be later in the President's term and after a long legislative battle.
-The Economy: Kennedy will probably get his tax-cut through Congress in 1964 or 1965. This would help stimulate demand, and the economy will continue to do well throughout the '60s. Inflation will be lower due to a smaller US commitment to Vietnam. This means stronger economic growth going forward as well.
-Urban Crime: The race riots of the 1960s will still occur, and may be larger due to the later passage of Civil Rights legislation. There was little any President could do to end the causes of the riots: poverty, lack of opportunity, and issues of a local nature.
-Counterculture: The counterculture will still arise, but will be smaller and less radical without the Vietnam War. The Beatles, Rolling Stones, and Bob Dylan will all be penning tunes that will resonate with a youth seeking a different life from their parents. If anything, the movement will be viewed more positively by the mainstream of American society because it won't be tied to draft card burning and an opposition of the President.

Legacy
-Kennedy's legacy would be generally positive. If he is able to get his domestic agenda passed in his second term, he will be viewed as a hero among Democrats and progressives. The New Frontier will be seen as a general success. But on issues of race relations and foreign policy, Kennedy will be criticized by conservatives. Urban crime and a "retreat" in the face of Communism will harm his legacy.
-1968 Election: The 1968 election would be much more favorable to the Democrats than it was in OTL. Johnson will probably win the nomination without too much opposition, as Bobby isn't ready yet and the party bosses want to put forward the strongest candidate. Johnson probably chooses Humphrey as his running-mate. However, the Democratic Party is still fracturing along class, gender, and racial lines. This began during the 1950s and will continue during this time. Civil Rights is a polarizing issue, and one which would define 1968. The Republicans will probably nominate Nixon, Romney, or Rockefeller. If they nominate Nixon, his moderate views on Civil Rights, but opposition to policies like busing and support for tough law and order, will probably give him a narrow victory.

I agree completely,but with an exception: Cuba.
When was shot,Kennedy had instructed to kill Castro.
An attempt would be done in December with poison.
So i don't see that "the two nations will be on better terms".
 
There would be the argument for keeping LBJ as VP , riding out any scandal, and telling Bobby to sit on it. LBJ was badly needed by Kennedy for his history & skill with the Congress. Maybe LBJ would fail in that role as VP, but it was something JFK had to consider.

JFK ignored LBJ's advice in OTL, and sought to do nothing but make him as forgotten as possible. JFK selected LBJ to win in the South and to remove a powerful independent Majority Leader. Once that was done, Johnson was discarded.
 
I'd just like to say reading this thread in general is awesome and perfectly-timed with my interest in a surviving JFK.
 
Be missed by Oswald and be Re-Elected would be not the problem.
the Problem would be: Can JFK survived another term as President ?

He had the Addison's disease and hypothyroidism.
and some His treatment was controversial at last: Dr. Feelgood injected JFK with amphetamines in over doses !
also the drugs required for Addison's disease had the side effect of increasing his virility, what let to JFK Extra-marital relationships and the each one had bigger potential as the Lewinsky scandal!
like actress Marlin Monroe who killed herself or Judith Exner with close connection to US Mafia.

Either JFK dies in office do to bad health or get Impeach by both chambers of US Congress...
 
Hmm... first LBJ resigning due to scandal from traditional Texas politics, then JFK threatened with impeachemnt, or his health collapses. Deja Vu to Nixons downfall.

Does that make Rep John McCormack next in line for president? Or would the Democrats choose someone else as the sucessor VP to LBJ & then Kennedy?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_1966

But, assuming LBJ is discarded pre 1964 election who is the most likely candadate for VP?
 
Well there are plenty of threads about this already, but I'll rehash the general consensus (or at least my thoughts) in an easy to use format:

1964 Election
-Democratic Nomination: Kennedy is challenged by George Wallace in the primaries. He is less successful than he was in OTL because of Kennedy's appeal among many of the same ethnic working class voters that supported Wallace. The President easily wins renomination. Kennedy keeps Johnson on the ticket. He had no personal problems with LBJ (though his brother did) and though he may have wanted a friend with North Carolina Terry Sanford on the ticket, it's unlikely he would have taken such a big risk.
-Republican Nomination: Goldwater defeats Rockefeller for many of the same reasons as OTL. Rockefeller's divorce and remarriage harmed him greatly among conservatives, and whoever the President was made little impact. Goldwater wins the nomination after winning California and chooses a moderate, such as Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton, as his running-mate (he only chose Bill Miller in OTL because he bugged Johnson).
-General Election: Kennedy and Goldwater campaign across the country. Kennedy's theme is peace and prosperity, while also addressing issues like Civil Rights and poverty. Goldwater attacks the President for being too soft on Communism (the withdrawal from Vietnam being the obvious example) and for presiding over the continued expansion of the federal government. They engage in a series of televised debates, in which Kennedy's style and Goldwater's "wonkish" delivery portray a stark contrast. The President easily wins reelection, but loses the Deep South and several Western states to Goldwater.

Foreign Policy
-Vietnam: Kennedy begins the planned withdrawal of military advisers in 1963 and 64. Military and economic aide are maintained. There is some debate as to whether Kennedy would backtrack and deploy ground forces if the Communists appeared likely to win.
-Cuba: An effort towards rapprochement is made by the United States. It's unlikely that there are any official policy changes, but the two nations will be on better terms.
-Latin America: Kennedy continues to push for greater diplomatic ties between the United States and our neighbors to the South. Trade and democratic reforms will be promoted. America may still intervene in the Dominican Republic revolution, but it is much less likely with Kennedy instead of Johnson in the White House.
-Europe: Stronger diplomacy between America and Europe, especially the UK. Kennedy was always interested in European affairs, far more so than LBJ. The United States maintains a better image there and our alliances are strengthened.
-China: Moving towards rapprochement but no "Kennedy in China" scenario.
-Soviet Union: Continued disarmament talks, possibly leading to an arms reduction agreement.
-Third World: A more active commitment to the Peace Corps and economic development of the Third World. Kennedy will maintain the goal of improving America's image in these nations in a way Johnson could not afford due to Vietnam. Particular assistance will be given to regimes combating Communist insurgencies.

Domestic Policy
-Civil Rights: Kennedy will not be able to get the Civil Rights Act passed in 1963 or 1964. The House Rules Committee will be forced to discharge the Civil Rights Act in early 1964, and the full House will pass the bill. But the Senate filibuster will remain intact until after the elections when the Republicans are willing to work with the President. It's likely this happens early sometime in 1965. Voting Rights may happen that year or a year later. It was more politically popular than the Civil Rights Act anyway.
-War on Poverty: Kennedy gets federal aide to public education passed in 1965. Minimum wage and Social Security increases will also be passed. Something like VISTA will also get passed, as may a Job Corps element.
-Medicare and Medicaid: These programs will have a tough time getting passed. Medicaid was much more politically popular among Southern Democrats, so that may get passed. Medicare stands a good chance, but still has to go through the conservative Senate Finance Committee. If this gets accomplished, it will be later in the President's term and after a long legislative battle.
-The Economy: Kennedy will probably get his tax-cut through Congress in 1964 or 1965. This would help stimulate demand, and the economy will continue to do well throughout the '60s. Inflation will be lower due to a smaller US commitment to Vietnam. This means stronger economic growth going forward as well.
-Urban Crime: The race riots of the 1960s will still occur, and may be larger due to the later passage of Civil Rights legislation. There was little any President could do to end the causes of the riots: poverty, lack of opportunity, and issues of a local nature.
-Counterculture: The counterculture will still arise, but will be smaller and less radical without the Vietnam War. The Beatles, Rolling Stones, and Bob Dylan will all be penning tunes that will resonate with a youth seeking a different life from their parents. If anything, the movement will be viewed more positively by the mainstream of American society because it won't be tied to draft card burning and an opposition of the President.

Legacy
-Kennedy's legacy would be generally positive. If he is able to get his domestic agenda passed in his second term, he will be viewed as a hero among Democrats and progressives. The New Frontier will be seen as a general success. But on issues of race relations and foreign policy, Kennedy will be criticized by conservatives. Urban crime and a "retreat" in the face of Communism will harm his legacy.
-1968 Election: The 1968 election would be much more favorable to the Democrats than it was in OTL. Johnson will probably win the nomination without too much opposition, as Bobby isn't ready yet and the party bosses want to put forward the strongest candidate. Johnson probably chooses Humphrey as his running-mate. However, the Democratic Party is still fracturing along class, gender, and racial lines. This began during the 1950s and will continue during this time. Civil Rights is a polarizing issue, and one which would define 1968. The Republicans will probably nominate Nixon, Romney, or Rockefeller. If they nominate Nixon, his moderate views on Civil Rights, but opposition to policies like busing and support for tough law and order, will probably give him a narrow victory.
This is a very good write-up!
If I can, let me put in my two cents: Kennedy will go down as a good president, maybe ranking between 11th and 15th on the list of the greatest presidents. There would be no myth or legend OR assassination to give him higher status. With his health issues, he probably dies in the late 1970's, somewhere around the age of 60 or 61.
I agree with you in regard to Nixon winning in 1968. But it will be a bigger margin of victory over Vice President Johnson. With LBJ being from Texas and how Kennedy lost the deep south due to civil rights issues in 1964, would be two strikes against Johnson before he gets to the plate. The third strike would be that if elected, he would not fill out his full term in office, knowing his life span is short among male members of his family.
 
The one difference between the 1964 election OTL and ITTL is that Kennedy and Goldwater would have had town hall debates.
 
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