WI: JFK Handles Vietnam War

This has pretty much been done to death on this forum, but the consensus is that well, there is no consensus on JFK and Vietnam. What's the meaning of this bizarre paradox? The jist is that there is a lot of evidence either way as to whether or not Kennedy would have escalated US involvement to the point of war. On the one hand Kennedy wanted to get out and he organized a draw down, but he also wanted to see South Vietnam win and defeat the Viet Cong. On the one hand he was committed to not sending ground troops, on the other he increased US military prescence and used chemical weapons like Agent Orange to help SV. On the one hand LBJ kept most of JFK's advisors for the beginning of the OTL war, but on the other Johnson lacked Kennedy's self-restraint and foreign policy skill. (I'm talking post-Bay of Pigs when Kennedy brokered a ceaefire in Laos and stared down the USSR during the Cuban Missile Crisis while also avoding war. LBJ in contrast has recently been rated by historians as our worst President in foreign policy while getting high marks on other fronts).

Much like Lincoln and Reconstruction, we just don't know for sure what Kennedy would have done since JFK himself wasn't sure about what to do in Vietnam. At any rate, given Kennedy's poor health it was probably inevitable that he not be in office for the 1965 period when it looked like SV was going to fall without direct US aid. Kennedy at one point predicted that he would live to be 45, in fact he lived to be 46 and that was a year and a half before Rolling Thunder. One reason Kennedy died is that his back brace (which was essential for his spine and the constant pain it caused him) prevented the President from ducking or slumping in his seat to avoid the fatal bullet in Dallas. So really, given Kennedy's weak physical constitution he was very fortunate to have lived as long as he did and ironically his poor health spared him from making the difficult choice that plagued LBJ.
 

Poston

Banned
I'm going to venture Kennedy knows to use caution during the Gulf of Tonkin Incident and doesn't order air strikes on North Vietnam in 1964.

He continues the policy of withdrawaling advisors until spring 1965 when the Vietcong attack Plei Ku and other American airbases. Air strikes in retaliation do occur here after a war resolution grants the president such power. Declarations of war are out of date and need to be replaced in process.

The attacks continue until marines are needed to guard American bases and more. Kennedy increases munitions, training, and aid to South Vietnam through 1966 while refusing to take offensive action except to prevent attacks on US advisers and facilities. Special forces aren't used. Air power is, not as much by Johnson though.

Maybe 50,000 troops stay in Vietnam. Kennedy continues to try diplomatic channels with no avail. The Tet offensive occurs earlier because of smaller American prescence and allows the VK to get a stronger foothold than OTL. Troop levels exceed 100,000 to protect US assets in South Vietnam and prevent the South from collapsing. Kennedy also sends massively increased levels of aid to the South much of which is stolen or lost. Efforts to bring negotiated settlement continue to fail.

By 1968 with over 150,000 troops in South Vietnam Richard Nixon is elected president vowing to end the war with honor and prevent collapse. He begins to bomb North Vietnam continuously and take a more direct role than Kennedy 300,000 troops are in South Vietnam by 1970. Draft protests occur in greater number.
 
The problem is it wasn't Kennedy's idea, it was Eisenhower's. Kennedy had what his 2 succesors lacked, compassion. How much that would get in the way of the presidency and vietnam policy i can only guess. He started it, he has a sense of responsibility. He'll try his best to aid South Vietnam, but escalate it with more ground troops and more bombings? Maybe not.
 
The problem is it wasn't Kennedy's idea, it was Eisenhower's. Kennedy had what his 2 succesors lacked, compassion.

I don't think it's fair to say that LBJ and Nixon didn't have compassion at some level. Johnson genuinely cared about poverty and civil rights, while the war on cancer and environmentalism were all passion projects of Tricky Dick. And Kennedy's Vietnam policies weren't exactly humane: he had civilians concentrated in "strategic hamlets" and as I mentioned he used Agent Orange which had horrible effects on Vietnamese agriculture and people.

That said, Johnson and Nixon's domestic initiatives were arguably outweighed by their unspeakable policies in Vietnam. Millions were killed in barbaric bombing raids to support a war that ultimately failed. So many people died and they died for nothing. In contrast, Kennedy had less domestic accomplishments to his name but his legacy of making sure the world didn't go to hell over Berlin or Cuba outweighs his mistakes and certainly makes him a better President overall. So I understand how he could be viewed as more compassionate in comparison.
 
Search for Magniac's posts on this if you're seriously interested. Most informed person we've had on this subject. He wrote a superb essay on it at one stage.
 
and as I mentioned he used Agent Orange which had horrible effects on Vietnamese agriculture and people.

In the 1960s, that was just code for the mix of two OTC weedkillers in the USA. There were many other Agents used: Green, Pink, Purple, Blue, White, Orange, Orange II, Orange III, and Super Orange.

Once Operation Ranch Hand began in 1962, around 20 million gallons were sprayed over South Vietnam when Ranch Hand Missions were ended in 1971.

The Motto of that operation was

'Only You can prevent a Forest'
2,4,5-T (2,4,5-trichlorophenoxyacetic acid) is the chemical which received notoriety after it was extensively used as a defoliant in the Vietnam war. It is closely related to a number of other herbicides, such as 2,4-D (2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid), which are plant growth stimulants which cannot be metabolised by plants. Therefore if they are applied in high concentrations they cause lethal, uncontrollable and grossly distorted growth. 2,4-D was the first hormone herbicides and the first really selective weedkillers, which killed weeds but did not harm other plants or animals. 2,4-D is still extensively used in the USA.


24d.gif
245t.gif


2,4-D .....................................2,4,5-T


The differences from 2,4-D are shown in red

Agent Orange

Whereas 2,4-D have been used extensively all over the world for the past 50 years without any problems, their chemically similar derivative, 2,4,5-T has been surrounded with controversy. This is because it was widely used as a defoliant by the USA in the Vietnam war in the 1960s, and combined with 2,4-D, this spray was named Agent Orange. 2,4,5-T is extremely effective as a defoliant. It has great advantages in that is has low toxicity to animals and is cheap to manufacture.(Note:2,4,5-T was restricted use in 1970, and Banned in 1985)


245treac.gif



It is the second step in the reaction that has caused all the problems, since the temperature has to be carefully controlled. If it rises above 160°C a side-reaction between two of the sodium intermediates occurs producing the deadly tetrachlorodioxin.


dioxinr.gif


Although the 2,4,5-T molecule itself was non-toxic, the small quantities of the dioxin impurities caused many problems.

That dioxin from sloppy manufacturing was the problem to mammals
 
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We would be getting the hell out of Vietnam as fast as we could. JFK had some serious regent over allowing Diệm and his brother to be coup and the fact the two was killed. Kennedy really wrestle with Vietnam before his death, trying to keep the South afloat, trying to win hearts and minds, trying to fight the Communists. (Which we all know failure horribly, and I say it unwinnable war from the start, but that's for another day.)

So in short...

JFK order a withdraw of advisors while South Vietnam becomes a revolving door of military coups and countercoups as in OTL. By 1965, the South is overrun by the VC and NVA regulars. It is a blow and some would call him out, but the American public at this time cares little for some faraway nation in Southeast Asia they could not find in a map. (It was under LBJ in 64 and 65 we only really started to notice Vietnam more.)

He got bigger things to deal with. (Such as going to the Moon, rapprochement with Castro and Cuba, and detente with the Soviets.)
 
Search for Magniac's posts on this if you're seriously interested. Most informed person we've had on this subject. He wrote a superb essay on it at one stage.
This is probably one of their most in-depth threads on the subject. I'd agree that Magniac's posts are certainly worth a read.
 
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