Yeah, Jesus would have been butterflied away. If he is born and becomes a preacher/messianic figure, the outcome would depend on how Judea is being governed.
In OTL Antiochus IV essentially banned Judaism, which resulted in a revolt which ultimately led to the establishment of a new Jewish kingdom. If this is taking place after the Seleucids or Ptolemies reannex the Hasmonaean kingdom, the Jews are likely to still be repressed, so you could see Jesus (or some other messiah) lead a revolt to reestablish a Jewish kingdom. This revolt would likely prove destabilizing enough to cause Rome to intervene and conquer Syria/Egypt, with the new Nazarene kingdom as a client state. So Jesus becomes a Roman vassal rabbi-king.
If Judaism had been treated with the same tolerance traditionally given to them by the Greeks and not been persecuted by Antiochus IV, they would have remained part of the Seleucid empire, so the Jews would likely continue to Hellenize. In OTL the Jews were divided in two broad factions: traditionalists and Hellenizers. If Jews remain tolerated, there would be almost two hundred years between the non-establishment of the Hasmonaean kingdom and Jesus' adulthood, during which the Jews would be increasingly hellenized. Jesus would presumably find very little audience among these content, tolerated Jews, so he could either give up, or join with the traditionalists. He may find a small following among them, but his liberal preachings and messianic doctrine would likely be too heterodox for most.