WI: Jesse Jackson is the democratic candidate in 1988?

I am well aware that you acknowledged that Jackson would do poorly among whites in the general election, but not everyone here seems willing to acknowledge that, and my post was addressed to the group in general, not just you.

Anyway, with regard to Wisconsin, I wrote in my earlier post that he got at most 25% of the white vote there, and this seems to confirm it: "Mr. Jackson won nearly a quarter of the white vote, the most he has got in any major primary." https://www.nytimes.com/1988/04/10/...kson-made-history-while-losing-wisconsin.html

Obviously, if Jackson got about 12 percent of the white vote overall, that would not mean that he uniformly did so: in some paces like Wisconsin and California it may have been in the mid-twenties; in many conservative rural counties (and in parts of the Northwest and Southwest Sides of Chicago!) it was in the single digits--and not always the high single digits. Jackson's showing with the white vote in Wisconsin got attention precisely because it was such an improvement over his Super Tuesday showing: "Look back at Jackson's performance on Super Tuesday 1988, as Jon Cohen of the Washington Post did last week, and you'll see Clinton's point. Jackson's biggest share of the white vote that day was 16 percent in Massachusetts and Rhode Island. In 10 of the 16 states that voted, he didn't even reach double digits..." http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/human_nature/2008/02/open_primary.html

I reckon Wisconsin is partly because Jackson had labor backing there. Factory closures were a big issue there at the time, Jackson got involved early and labor was grateful for that. The same sort of dynamic happened in Maine, where there was a big strike in Jay, which Jackson injected himself into, resulting in a strong second behind Dukakis. I can't find anything on a breakdown of the votes in Maine but it seems clear from the results that it wasn't just black votes given the demographics of the state and where he won.

Super Tuesday of course incorporated the whole of the south - I don't think it's a surprise that Jackson was almost wholly non-viable with southern whites.
 
And not necessarily true, anyway. Mondale at least carried Minnesota (as well as DC which of course Jackson would also carry). I am not sure Jackson would do so.
This. The more I think about it, the more I struggle to see Jackson even reaching Mondale levels of support in a General Election scenario. I'm not sure there is any State where heightened African American turnout will negate the lose of White voters; mitigate certainly, but not negate.

I reckon Wisconsin is partly because Jackson had labor backing there. Factory closures were a big issue there at the time, Jackson got involved early and labor was grateful for that. The same sort of dynamic happened in Maine, where there was a big strike in Jay, which Jackson injected himself into, resulting in a strong second behind Dukakis. I can't find anything on a breakdown of the votes in Maine but it seems clear from the results that it wasn't just black votes given the demographics of the state and where he won.

Super Tuesday of course incorporated the whole of the south - I don't think it's a surprise that Jackson was almost wholly non-viable with southern whites.
The problem with States like Maine, and by an extension Michigan given that was another State he did unexpectedly well in, is that they were Caucuses. It is very easy to inflate a candidate's support beyond their traditional base in States like that should they have a dedicated base of support, which Jackson did among African Americans and the most liberal of Democrats. Vermont sticks out but, unfortunately, it is marred by a low turnout of 29%, which again presents Jackson's support as being more from dedicated supporters such as Bernie Sanders actually turning out, then Jackson winning over support in the State.

Wisconsin is the best result for Jackson among those presented on a State-wide level I believe, at least in a proper primary (though it was arguably influenced by Republicans crossing over for Dukakis and Gore).
 
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