WI: Jerry Litton Doesn't Die in a Plane Crash

His name is unknown today. But Jerry Litton was a charismatic Missouri Congressman who was killed in a plane crash after winning the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. Before Litton's death, Jimmy Carter had said that one day Litton would be President. And many agreed. The POD is Litton boards a different plane and lives to campaign for the Senate in 1976. Would he win the election? What would his political future be from 1977 onwards? Might Litton have become President, as Carter had incorrectly predicted?
 
(POD could be maintenance, it was a close friend of the family’s plane and it’s hard to stop him flying on it except fixing it or an earlier crash without Litton. However the plane apparently had quality care, so it’s just damn bad luck they didn’t catch it.)

Jerry Litton won the Democratic primary without the St Louis Dem base of the state because of one opponent’s geographical strength, which is not easy lol, no wonder he was considered an underdog. He’s up against the popular Attorney General John Danforth, rising Republican star who won against a rather weaker Dem IOTL by a decent margin. But yeah, Litton is just plain better than Danforth at the whole thing and Danforth doesn’t have the (back then it was real) incumbency bonus he’ll use to survive some tough times ahead IOTL. That and Litton spent a million dollars just on the primary….

Assuming Litton is the only change from OTL ‘76 I suspect he wins the 1984 nomination after a blow-out ‘82 Senate victory (if he wants it). Whether or not he beats Reagan, well, at the least Dialogue with Litton proved he was the vanishingly rare Dem who even vaguely understood the modern media landscape of the day so who knows, nearly a decade of butterflies out—certainly his organizing/campaigning skills plus conservative Missouri Dem is pretty darn useful in the era.

Dude went from single digit name recognition in February 1976 on announcement to a twenty point victory in the primary with a forty-five per cent vote share against two major opponents. Like try and stop him, lol.

Edit:
Two Democrats Vie in Missouri For Party Nomination to Senate
New York Times said:
A million‐dollar campaign by Representative Jerry Litton appears to have narrowed the wide lead once held by Representative James W. Symington
[…]
A statewide poll published last Sunday by The Kansas City Star showed Mr. Symington barely holding his lead of 29.6 to 28.5 percent over Mr. Litton. Mr. Hearnes had 18.8 percent. Twenty‐one percent were undecided.

God willing, what might have been…
By Robert L. Slater
The St. Joseph News-Press said:
Jerry Litton had that thing about him. Charisma. Energy. Self-confidence. Unequaled communication skills. A “burning in his gut” to make a difference.

He seemed equally at ease talking to a banker in a $1,000 suit and a rancher with manure on his boots.

The Missourian Many Thought Would Be President
KCUR 89.3 podcast hosted by Steve Kraske, with guests Kristi Wyatt & Steven Jacques
 
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If he wins and assuming reelection and no other butterflies, he could be a plausible contender in 1988. A strong bid by him might keep out Al Gore and possibly Gephardt too (given an overlapping base). He'd likely have a decent shot in Iowa. Another question is whether he can get a lot of the establishment support that OTL went to Dukakis.

If he fails to win the nomination and Dukakis or another Democrat still loses to GHW Bush, he'd be a contender for 1992 as well, though whether the same thinking (that 1992 was a lost cause) keeps out Litton as it did other leading Dems in 1992 is an open question.

No idea what his governing style would be like, but it would probably butterfly the Clintons' national career if he wins in '88. (And even a losing bid might make the party more reluctant to go with an Arkansas governor sharing a similar political profile four years later.)
 
I think you need a more descriptive title for this one @Amadeus, dude is too unknown, alas.

No idea what his governing style would be like,

Forty years ago this week, Missouri lost a giant in U.S. Rep. Jerry Litton
By Steve Kraske
Kansas City Star said:
A lot of people, including Litton himself, believed the one-time cattleman was headed to the White House.

“He was on a path to fulfill his dream,” says Kristi Wyatt, a former top aide to Litton who now works at the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce.

Litton, who was 39 when he died, was an LBJ-like whirling dervish of a human being, prone to 24-hour workdays — I’ve got witnesses — and stopping by bowling alleys at 1 a.m. just to shake a few hands.
In a conversation with then-presidential contender Jimmy Carter, Litton bemoaned the proliferation of federal agencies.

Yes, Carter noted, Congress created 84 just last year.

“It was an off-year,” Litton cracked.

Another time, Hubert Humphrey was talking about the popularity of a farm bill. “We had 100 congressmen at the head table that day,” Litton replied. “I haven’t seen that many congressmen together since the pay-raise vote.”

Govtrack considers him one of the leading figures of 1973-1976. He’s also part of the one-third conservative Dem faction though on the left edge for sure especially if you prefer DW-Nominate so moderate could be fair, and was described as a fairly conservative Dem by Kristi Wyatt on the podcast. So likely at least as conservative as Clinton or Carter. He’d have a workable Senate and House in ‘84 or ‘88 and perhaps Litton’s existence has improved the Democratic situation here and there.

But like what is he going to do? A quarter of his bills were related to taxation, and a fifth each on government details and agricultural. So new tax overhaul maybe and a farm bill for sure (with Bob Dole’s backing), probably major government reorganization. A lot depends on what Congress is looking like and what Litton’s dream might have been.
 
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In 1976 Danforth won with 57% of the vote. Litton was a skilled politician, but I don't know if he could beat Danforth.

If Litton loses a close race, what could he do next? Missouri's other Senate seat is already taken by Democrat Thomas Eagleton. Might he run for Attorney General or Governor?
 
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