Jeb Bush wins the race for Florida Governor in 1994 and he decides to run in 2000. Does he end up becoming president like his brother?
 
He will almost certainly be the Republican nomination. But as he demonstrated in 1994 and 2016 Jeb Bush is not as good politician as George W. George W. Bush ran a brilliant campaign-and Al Gore received more votes despite running an awful one. Jeb might lose.

True he's safe in Florida. But I'm not sure that he's guaranteed to win all of the same states his brother did. You switch almost any Bush state to Gore and Gore is President.
 
All the ones that @dw93 said (Graham, Kerry, Shaheen, Biden) but also Sam Nunn, Barbara Boxer, Zell Miller, Barbara Mikulski, Tom Harkin, Bob Kerrey, Dick Gephardt, Evan Bayh, Andrew Cuomo, John Edwards, just to name a few.
I would take Zell Miller out of consideration. IRC, he was starting to go to the dark side in the late '90s.
 
True, but he was still considered by the Gore campaign.
True. I think Gore would be best served with a northerner or a westerner. Regional Balance IMHO is going to be important after 8 years of two Democrats from the South.
 
True. I think Gore would be best served with a northerner or a westerner. Regional Balance IMHO is going to be important after 8 years of two Democrats from the South.

I agree. Boxer, Gephardt, Bayh, Harkin, Kerrey, Kerry, and Cuomo could fit well.
 
I agree. Boxer, Gephardt, Bayh, Harkin, Kerrey, Kerry, and Cuomo could fit well.
I still think Graham, Shaheen, or Kerry would be best considering how close Florida and New Hampshire were OTL. Either one could've made Gore President. Although I guess the Gore Campaign might write Florida off of their list if Jeb! gets the nod in 2000, seeing how it's his home state, so going for New Hampshire might be a better bet.
 
I agree that tactically contesting New Hampshire over Florida makes sense if the Governor of the State is the nominee. But Gore's decision to pick Lieberman always seemed like a subtle stab at Bill Clinton at a time when their relationship was at a low point. Even if Florida is unwinnable-he might make the same decision for that reason.

This bears repeating because the notion that Jeb is the smarter brother drowns this fact out. Jeb Bush is not as good at politics as his brother or his father. He won't have a campaign manager like Karl Rove with him. His campaign may not contest some of the Clinton/Gore 1996 states that the Bush 2000 campaign did-believing them to be more pro-Gore than those states were. Jeb's campaign may not make the same effort his brother's did in Tennessee, West Virginia, Arkansas, etc. Not saying Gore wins those states. Gore's loss of Tennesee seems inevitable in retrospect.

Still, taking away the Bush 2000 campaign's strengths might make for a strange map. Just about any change would make Gore President. Jeb has to win every state his brother did historically to win despite probably running a weaker campaign. Gore can pick up New Hampshire and be President.

And in some respects-the fact that Jeb isn't perceived as the kind of unintelligent figure George W. was might actually help the Gore campaign. Gore isn't going to project condescension towards Jeb during the debates for instance. Then again Gore was helped by the revelation of George W. Bush's drunk driving so that might end up being a bit of a toss up.
 
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