I like him, but his English wasn’t as great as Trudeau nor was he as charismatic, and even Trudeau didn’t exactly win a convincing victory at the convention, so he probably loses to Winters (or Sharp, on the off chance butterflies mean he’s able to stay in the race).
Of course, assuming Winters wins a minority government, and that he meets a similar end as OTL, we likely have another leadership election a year or two later where Marchand might be better positioned.