In the 1997 election Chretien came uncomfortably close to losing his seat of St-Maurice to the BQ and their star candidate. Later it would be discovered that the money funnelled to that riding was illegal, but at the time no one knew. Let's say that things go worse, the Liberals win 7-8 less seats and thus a minority. One of those seats is Chretien's. The most recent precedent is Mackenzie King, who was twice defeated in his own riding as PM (York North, Prince Albert) and sought reelection in another riding without resigning. Would Chretien do the same or would the humiliation be too great? I highly doubt he'd cede willingly to Paul Martin, though at that stage Martin's covert rebel campaign was just about to be seeded.