WI Jean Charest becomes leader of the Progressive Conservatives in 1993?

I think they might have done better in the election, I mean the two seats Campbell won can't be to hard to outmatch.
 
I think they might have done better in the election, I mean the two seats Campbell won can't be to hard to outmatch.

I feel the opposite is true. Charest won't have Campbell's initial surge of popularity for being a woman PM, and that will hurt him IMO.
 
I feel the opposite is true. Charest won't have Campbell's initial surge of popularity for being a woman PM, and that will hurt him IMO.

He might not have reached the same initial heights that Campbell did, since there naturally would've been a lot more excitement about her election than there would have been with Charest, but a) she was an awful campaigner and b) Charest was very popular in Quebec, where up until a few weeks before the election the PCs still had a decent hope of winning somewhere around 20 or so seats. Plus, a better overall campaign likely means the party is able to hold onto more seats in places like the Atlantic, Ontario, and maybe the west (though obviously Campbell would've an advantage over Charest in the region; ironically, though, a better campaign likely means Campbell herself is able to win re-election, likely positioning herself for a run for the leadership once Charest (presumably) resigns.

So overall I think the PCs would do a lot better, but probably not well enough to pass the Bloc Quebecois or Reform (though it is plausible). An outright win really isn't possible unless there are earlier butterflies. If I had to guess I imagine the Liberals win about as many seats as they did IOTL, if not more (with greater vote-splitting between the PCs and the Bloc/Reform likely countering Liberal losses in the East), the Bloc/Reforms in the high-30s or low-40s, and the PCs with around 30+ seats.
 
The ridings seats the PC won historically in 1993 were Charest's own, and St. John in New Brunswick which elected their popular Mayor, Elsie Wayne. I think the latter may even have been a gain. Presumably they still win both ridings with Charest as leader. So almost by definition they couldn't have done worse.

Does anyone know in how many ridings the PC came within 5% of winning. Wikipedia lists the closest ridings -all Liberal/ Reform or Reform/ NDP contests but doesn't provide a convenient riding-by-riding breakdown.
 
That table is hard to read, but it looks like a slightly better performance would have given the PC maybe half a dozen more seats, five from the Liberals and one from the BQ. Its hard to tell if this would have included Campbell's. Assuming the additional votes are taken from the BQ and Reform totals, this also helps the Liberals vs the BQ in Quebec, and the NDP vs Reform out West.
 
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