WI: Java, Sumatra and Singapore don't fall...

Wimble Toot

Banned
By chance or intervention these islands don't fall or surrender to the Japanese. How does the war in the Pacific develop?
 
The Japanese are screwed. They run out of oil in 18-24 months tops, and by that I mean the reserve is zero - no ships sail, no planes fly, no wheels turn in factories, and the production of chemicals that use petroleum as feedstock is reduced to zero. Before the red light on the gas gauge goes on, the war is over simply because the allies can go where they want and do what they want - absent mobility of air and naval forces many islands that were taken as intermediate bases can be skipped because there won't be a threat to the LOC. Starvation in many Japanese held islands arrives much sooner, as shipping to bring supplies decreases rapidly - only coal powered merchants are sailing.
 
Hypothetically this could allow reinforcements & supplies to filter through to Mindanao before the primary US ground force in Bataan is eliminated. The Japanese could eliminate the outlying US garrisons/PI Army regiments, but its resources expended to do so. If they don't some PI infantry regiments acquire arms and at least a few months of training. More important is Allied aircraft filter into the Mindanao airfields and harass and bleed away Japanese strength.

With Singapore intact the remaining British blue water submarines fan out into the S China Sea, Yellow Sea, & beyond, picking off Jpanese cargo ships and the occasional warship. Getting a IJN carrier laid up for a couple months repair at this point means a lot. It also enables the RN ro raid into these seas as the USN did, with carriers or surface ships. The 8th March dispersal of a Japanese convoy near Lae bought time for the Australians in New Guinea. The RN might do the same for the US by raiding a Japanese supply convoy to Luzon.

there wis also the question of how much in naval strength the IJN loses in the course of losing the southern campaign. Did the failure to take Java or Sumatra include the Akagi or Hyriu settling to the sea bottom?

Politcally this forces the Jpanese leaders to face their true situation far earlier. Without the hope of the Allies rolling over and giving up to Japanese economic demands by the end of 1942 the Zaibatsu will be in a panic. With the Strike South strategy discredited, and probably the Navy as well, or worse the Army, Tojos government will be out & the new cabinet consider their negotiating position for peace.

This situation means a smaller emergency surge of war material to the Pacific threatre in 1942, and less in 1943. No S Pacific offensives on the scale of OTL, smaller preparations for the Central Pacific offensive in 1943. This leaves a bonus of cargo shipping for use to the ETO/MTO in 1943, or even later 1942. More aircraft, more amphibs, more ammunition, more ground combat forces to the ETO/MTO. In 1945 that effect is huge. Its possible Operation Anvil would be executed in early 1944 as Eisenhower wanted, the Op OVERLORD can be executed earlier, that the air offensive against Germany builds up sooner.
 
Burma probably holds as well. So more aid is able to be sent to the Chinese.

Reinforcements also slowly flow form Britain, the Commonwealth and the Empire into the fight in Malaya. A fight which the Japanese with significant forces busy in China can't win. Especially when the British start to send more modern equipment including aircraft and tanks. I would expect US forces to make an appearance in strength sooner or later. Once the Malayan peninsular is free and the Wallies start to slowly fight their way through South East Asia.

This strengthens the Pacific first advocates in the US as with an active major front when there isn't one in Europe I foresee more men and equipment finding their way to be used against the Japanese. However with less need for island hoping more amphibious warefare equipment especially landing craft is available for the European theatre so I think in the long run it would ballance its self out to a similar time table for D Day as OTL.

The course of the war is largely the same. However post war the British position east of Suez is not as fatally weakened as OTL. Australia and New Zealand look less to the US and more to the mother country as they did pre WW2. The British retreat from Empire less quickly and perhaps some of the worst mistakes are avoided in their decolonisation.
 
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