Is there any way we could engineer things (without third power ultimatums or changes before 1894) so that when Japan and China sign their treaty ending their war of 1894-1995, the terms involve no cession of any Chinese territories to Japan?
Say the terms are Korean independence from China (and acceptance of Japanese influence there) and perhaps monetary indemnities from China to Japan, but no cession of the Liaotung peninsula or Taiwan or the Penghus. (assume along with this that there are no wartime ops to seize the Penghus).
Those would be the explicit terms of the alt-"Shimonoseki", Japan's objective is mainly to get China out of the way, but not weaken it or give them an Alsace-Lorraine like grievance. Japan's understanding of it's own goal is that it's putting Korea onto the fast track to total Japanese domination, up to and including annexation eventually.
If that's how the war ended, would other powers intervene? Which ones, and how would they do it?
And going back a step, what is the more realistic way to get to this Sino-Japanese war endgame, is it simply through a Bismarckian limitation of Japan's appetites (thinking of Prussian restraint versus Austria after Koniggratz)? Or would the most realistic path be to have a better Chinese military performance?
Would the Chinese even come to terms if for example all the Japanese campaigning were in Korea and not Chinese territory?