WI Japan's war aims/demands in Sino-Japanese war were limited to Korea?

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Is there any way we could engineer things (without third power ultimatums or changes before 1894) so that when Japan and China sign their treaty ending their war of 1894-1995, the terms involve no cession of any Chinese territories to Japan?

Say the terms are Korean independence from China (and acceptance of Japanese influence there) and perhaps monetary indemnities from China to Japan, but no cession of the Liaotung peninsula or Taiwan or the Penghus. (assume along with this that there are no wartime ops to seize the Penghus).

Those would be the explicit terms of the alt-"Shimonoseki", Japan's objective is mainly to get China out of the way, but not weaken it or give them an Alsace-Lorraine like grievance. Japan's understanding of it's own goal is that it's putting Korea onto the fast track to total Japanese domination, up to and including annexation eventually.

If that's how the war ended, would other powers intervene? Which ones, and how would they do it?

And going back a step, what is the more realistic way to get to this Sino-Japanese war endgame, is it simply through a Bismarckian limitation of Japan's appetites (thinking of Prussian restraint versus Austria after Koniggratz)? Or would the most realistic path be to have a better Chinese military performance?
Would the Chinese even come to terms if for example all the Japanese campaigning were in Korea and not Chinese territory?
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Just to be clear to everyone, I am referring to the Sino-Japanese war of 1894-1895, not the 20th century Sino-Japanese War. Obviously in the latter, Korea would not have been a war aim for Japan since it was already annexed to Japan after 1910.

...so a clarification...and a bump.
 
Here's an idea: You could have Japan develop is such a way that they believe they can prosper through trade with an allied China rather than forcibly taking their markets like how they tried in the second sino-japanese war.

The terms of the peace treaty would be alliance and mutual trade deals instead of territorial or monetary concessions. Basically, Japan would attempt a rapprochement in order to cooperate in resisting European Powers.

I definitely know that at the time in China, despite the defeat, there was a large amount of respect and reverence for the Japanese method of aggressive industrialization and militarization as a means of resistance against the West.

If the Chinese stay stable enough and promise enough of their market shares to the Japanese, you might be able to butterfly away the future Japanese occupations in favor of true bilateral cooperation.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
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Monthly Donor
I'm curious to get LordKalvert's opinion in particular. I know what he thinks Russia *should* have done about a rising Japan (crush it), but what *would* it have done in reaction to a more restrained Japanese imposed settlement on China?
 
alliance and mutual trade deals

would anyone think this in the late 19th century, though? it's the height of neo-imperialism. Japan's ultimate goal in China would have been, like other powerful nations, directly controlling its resources.
 
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