WI: Japanese Victory at Midway

Three different ways you can take this, but I wonder about the outcome of each long term.

1. The Japanese take Midway, but at a high cost to themselves with most of their ships and planes being destroyed and a relatively low cost to the Allies

2. The Japanese force pushes the Allied navies out, with slightly more losses for the Allies than the Japanese.

3. A total Japanese Victory, with minimal casualties for them and almost the entire Allied force involved in the fight being destroyed.

Does any of these change the strategic situation at all? Is #3 even possible? What changes does this make to the Allied war effort?
 

destiple

Banned
Japs make plans to attack Hawaii, US essentially adopts a sea denial strategy around Hawaii
large number of shore based aircraft dive bombers fighters , torpedo planes are kept to keep the jap carriers away, , lots of BB and supporting ships to be used at night to destroy any enemy beachhead but these surface ships stay within range of land based airpower.
US submarines play a more active/offensive role
its a matter of time that more jap carriers are sunk in the offensive roles by US airpower or subs
and then japs are on the defensive again
so maybe delays timeline by 6 months
 

SsgtC

Banned
Six month to one year delay in US victory. New and far better ships and aircraft are coming and coming fast. Carrier and fast battleship construction gets sped up even more. The Navy probably works harder on getting the Corsair deck qualified. The Navy bites the bullet and transfers Ranger to the Pacific (they know she won't last long out there but they need the hulls).
 
Six month to one year delay in US victory. New and far better ships and aircraft are coming and coming fast. Carrier and fast battleship construction gets sped up even more. The Navy probably works harder on getting the Corsair deck qualified. The Navy bites the bullet and transfers Ranger to the Pacific (they know she won't last long out there but they need the hulls).

To which one are you responding?
 
They can’t win without Pearl Harbor, either.
Correct.

Japan was outmatched completely by the US in WWII. They didn’t realize that fighting a democracy was different than the imperial wars with Russia or Germany. Once they decided to launch a surprise attack on the US they were in it until the US decided the war was over.
 
Correct.

Japan was outmatched completely by the US in WWII. They didn’t realize that fighting a democracy was different than the imperial wars with Russia or Germany. Once they decided to launch a surprise attack on the US they were in it until the US decided the war was over.

Was there any way they could have met their aims in China?
 
And something that the Chinese could live with.
Thing is...it doesn’t matter whether they get a peace agreement. Because the IJA won’t stop. More than that they CAN’T stop. If they try they get shot by their subordinates who won’t stop. The state and even higher officers can’t control the army. And so the war WILL go on.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Thing is...it doesn’t matter whether they get a peace agreement. Because the IJA won’t stop. More than that they CAN’T stop. If they try they get shot by their subordinates who won’t stop. The state and even higher officers can’t control the army. And so the war WILL go on.
It really is screwed up that Japan EVER allowed the situation to get that bad. Makes you wonder why no one ever attempted a Purge of the Army.
 
The US built 24 Essex class carriers and scrapped several more being built. 19,000 B-24, 12,000 each F6F & F4U and around 9,000 B-29s. 2,700 Liberty ships, around 60,000 Sherman’s, etc. IMHO agree with the above. They lost the second the first bomb dropped on Pearl. All that remained was figuring out how long their defeat would take.
 
Your OP

Edit: all three, but scenario 3 is worst case (and the one year delay). The other two result in shorter delays
Don't all scenarios come to an end once/shortly after the US deploys nukes? Not like Midway stops atomic research.
 

SsgtC

Banned
Don't all scenarios come to an end once/shortly after the US deploys nukes? Not like Midway stops atomic research.
Yeah, but even IOTL some Army officers tried to stage a coup to keep fighting after the bombs dropped. Here, Japan wouldn't be nearly as devastated as IOTL (the US wouldn't have had bombers in range). Japan won't stop just because one or two cities a month are getting wiped out
 
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