WI: Japanese victory at Imphal and Kohima leads to Indian Campaign

[GauchoBadger]

In my standards, one interesting AH scenario i have heard of is Japan's planned invasion of India in WW2, in 1944. The japanese and their allies were making inroads into Assam, the Burma Road had already been abandoned in panic. Fortunately for the Allies, the IJA and the Indian National Army were strategically defeated at the battles of Kohima and Imphal, on the border between modern Burma and India, preventing the Kohima supply and munitions depot from falling into enemy hands, which could possibly result in Japan and the INA vomiting troops into the indian plain.
So, I ask: what if the Axis had decisively defeated the Allies at Kohima and Imphal, captured supplies, and started commiting efforts to an invasion of India?
(My guess is that the eastern Axis would still lose, in some "indian Stalingrad" of sorts. However, i am still curious as to what the effects on post-war arrangements would be if the japanese invade India and achieve at least partial success).

 

[wtw]

By that time there was a serious supply problem starting to hit the Japanese, granted they have proven that they do not need much to keep going, the Bengal region would probably be as far as the got before British and US forces push them back.

 

[GauchoBadger]

How popular was Bose and the INA among the indian populace? How much unrest can they inspire?
How would Gandhi react to this situation?

 

[Zheng He]

From a purely military standpoint I would say not much. The Japanese offensive will run out of steam before the Allies run out of space. Another problem is the monsoons, those come in May and those will slow down any offensive operations (as they did in 1942).

I guess from a political standpoint this could be bad for the British. They will look incompetent, losing a major battle against the Japanese when they are getting rolled up everywhere else. Not sure how this butterflies into other areas but it probably does in some way.

Keep in mind that by this time in the war, the RAF (with help from the USAAF and IAF) had total air superiority in this theater so any Japanese success on the ground is going to be slowed down by opposition from above.

 

[sloreck]

As always, logistics. even assuming the Japanese can loot enough food to keep going, although that will cost them any good will and the INA may not like seeing fellow Indians starving, that does not solve their problems. Ammunition of all types, and fuel for any motor vehicles has to come a long way, and the final journey is over crap roads and very limited RRs in the face of Allied air dominance.

 

[Echenberg]

If I remember correctly, Renya Mutaguchi, commander of the 15th army at the battle of Imphal, replied to a subordinate officer when questioned the viability of supply line through Burmese rainforest, roughly: "Japanese are herbivores. If one ran out of food, one can eat abundant grass and leaves on the way". A leadership change would be absolutely necessary, it seems.

 

[Astrodragon]

Japanese soldiers exit the jungle into the plains, and get to meet Imperial armoured forces and artillery.
The end.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Japanese Logistics were......very optimistic - the 3 principle Divisions were unable to defeat the weakest of the 4 Imperial formations (17th Indian Division) which fell back in good order to the plains inflicting heavy defeats on at least 2 Japanese Infantry Regiments that tried to cut it off and destroy it - and at the same time the 17th retained its transport, guns and nearly all of its supplies and more importantly its cohesion.

After that rather poor start things got worse for the IJA.

And this agaisnt an enemy (14th Army) that had spread itself out in the expectation of taking the offensive.

The issue for the Japanese is once the Imperial forces understand that the Japanese are actually the ones conducting an offensive 'all' they had to do was re-concentrate their forces closer to their logisitic hubs - which is what they did - allowing their greater firepower and logistics to bring them victory - which is what they did.

I cannot percieve a way in which the Japanese could do any better than they did OTL - they had taught their enemy all they knew over 2 years of war and found that their once easy to defeat enemy had bettered the lesson.