WI Japanese tries to colonize Formosa in 1594, earlier end to Imjin War

Just one of several ideas I've been considering for the Before 1900s thread. The main point is the establishment of a Japanese settlement in northern Taiwan. I am not sure how workable is this TL, and how many changes can result, but I'll try.

  • 1594 – Based on suggestions by Ryukyuan king Shō Nei (long considered to be a ruse to divert Japanese resources away from war in Korea), Toyotomi Hideyoshi attempts to set up a forward base in the Taipei basin in Formosa for a direct attack on China. Imjin War grinds to a stalemate (OTL)
  • 1596 – Imjin War ends. Efforts focused increasingly on Formosa instead.
  • 1600s – By now, the fledgling outposts set up by the Japanese are under constant attack from tropical diseases and aborigines.
  • 1609 – Battle of Sekigahara, Tokugawa victory. Small numbers of Pro-Toyotomi supporters flee to Formosa, creating the Nanryukyu Domain. Satsuma forces conquer the Ryukyuan kingdom and pursued the Toyotomi loyalists to Nanryukyu. However, despite subjugating the domain, heavy losses pressed the Satsuma to withdraw with relatively generous peace terms, retain the daimyo as a vassal to Satsuma, and by extension, the Tokugawa, but otherwise independent.
How does this first changes affect the island and the region as a whole? Can the Japanese hold the Taipei area at all? And how does an earlier end to the Imjin War affect the Ming and Joseon? Are they still too weakened to fend off the Qing? Feel free to point out any problems in the TL. Constructive criticism is always welcome. :)
 
I don't know much about the other points you raise, but the Imjin War wasn't a major factor in the fall of the Ming. The Ming fell because of a few things:
1. Massive amounts of corruption following (And indeed during) Wanli's reign.
2. A famine in Shaanxi (I might be wrong on where exactly the famine was, but I'm sure there was a famine somewhere) leading to rebellions in the reigon and widespread looting by bandits and rouge militiamen alike.
3. Peasant Rebellions (Somewhat linked to point 2), most notable amongst them the ones led by Li Zicheng and Zhang Xianzhong.
I'd say a earlier end to the Imjin War will not affect the Ming's chances against the Qing. Interesting scenario nonetheless.
 
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Taipei Basin at that time was inhabited by the Ketagalans, an indigenous Taiwanese group, so I wonder how the pro-Toyotomi supporters (and Ryukyuans, possibly) interact with them.
 
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I'm really not sure if attacking China's southern coast at the time is ready a good idea though. Taiwan would probably serve best as a base for coastal raids, but not invasions.
 
I'm really not sure if attacking China's southern coast at the time is ready a good idea though. Taiwan would probably serve best as a base for coastal raids, but not invasions.
Neither was attacking China in general (as the Japanese) but that never stopped Hideyoshi. :3

The point isn't to make a successful D-Day out of this, but see how the Japanese go with Taiwan when that idea crash and burn.
 
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