There were hard times for Japan during the Tenpo famine(1833~1837). During this period, there were not only death and hunger but also natural disasters (1834 Kogo fire, 1835 Sanriku earthquake, etc) and attack from foreign ships. How possible is it that the Tokugawa shogunate is replaced during this time by a revolt that sprung up due to the Tenpo famine? How big would the revolt be? who would lead it? would this lead to the new Shogunate based on the western part of Japan?