WI: Japanese Revolt?

There were hard times for Japan during the Tenpo famine(1833~1837). During this period, there were not only death and hunger but also natural disasters (1834 Kogo fire, 1835 Sanriku earthquake, etc) and attack from foreign ships. How possible is it that the Tokugawa shogunate is replaced during this time by a revolt that sprung up due to the Tenpo famine? How big would the revolt be? who would lead it? would this lead to the new Shogunate based on the western part of Japan?
 
I would think that if Japan replaced the Shogunate it probably would be MORE anti-foreign, because it was put there in part by foreign attacks. It may also just be led by the Ashiga because they were the nearest to a stable government without actually having a stable government.
 
I would think that if Japan replaced the Shogunate it probably would be MORE anti-foreign, because it was put there in part by foreign attacks. It may also just be led by the Ashiga because they were the nearest to a stable government without actually having a stable government.

The past Shogun dinasty will NOT return, that is sure. They had a shacky, and who grown quickly weaker and weaker, rule, kinda discredited in the heads of many and not respected anymore (this is WHY Sangoku era and all this happened).

My bet would be a southern lords coalition maybe, later one.
 
I would think that if Japan replaced the Shogunate it probably would be MORE anti-foreign, because it was put there in part by foreign attacks. It may also just be led by the Ashiga because they were the nearest to a stable government without actually having a stable government.
probably. even if the original shogunate survives, but it will also be anti-foreign...like the Qing dynasty in the latter half of the 19th century.
 
Well if a revolt has enough support we could see an earlier Imperial restoration. After all, the Meiji restoration happened about 30 years after the OTL revolt, so its not impossible. And with an older Emperor we might see him actually rule instead of act as a figurehead to the Genro.
 
Well if a revolt has enough support we could see an earlier Imperial restoration. After all, the Meiji restoration happened about 30 years after the OTL revolt, so its not impossible. And with an older Emperor we might see him actually rule instead of act as a figurehead to the Genro.

How would an earlier Imperial restoration be? If the emperor was restored in the 1830s, it'd be this guy:
Ninko Emperor
well, he was quite anti-economic development. Would this mean that Japan actually may go backwards rather than go forwards?
His plans for making peasant class the ideal member of society would bring interesting ramifications...
 

Neirdak

Banned
There were two famous revolts during the Tenpo famine, which means that many other probably occurred. One was led by Ōshio Heihachirō and the other one by Ikuta Yorozu (a few months later). Both of them were Neo-Confucianism scholars. "Things Seen and Unseen: Discourse and Ideology in Tokugawa Nativism" by Harry D. Harootunian has a nice chapter about following authority and Neo-Confucianism during this era, you can find great quotes of both of them in this book.

Ōshio Heihachirō was a former police inspector and a Neo-Confucianism scholar of the Ōyōmei (Wang Yangming) school in Osaka. He resigned from his position in 1830, because the city magistrate of Osaka was so corrupt that he refused to serve under him. Then he opened a Neo-Confucianist school. During the Tenpo-famine, he sold his books to feed the refugees and the peasants, after petitioning the magistrates. He wrote a famous manifesto about moral corruption. In 1837, he tried to take power in Osaka and managed to burn a fifth of the city. Mori Ōgai wrote a nice novella about him. It could help you.

The second revolt was led Ikuta Yorozu in the North Eastern region of Japan. Ikuta Yorozu was a samurai retainer of Tatebayashi Domain in Kōzuke Province, he was banished for writing a book named Iwa ni musu koke (Moss Growing on a Stone) that set forth proposals for domainal administrative reforms in 1828.
In 1836 he moved with his family to the village of Kashiwazaki in Echigo.

The Echigo region was suffering from a series of natural calamities around this time that had left the farmers of the region in a desperate state. Ikuta's appeals to local magistrate for aid were fruitless. Inspired by the revolt of Ōshio Heihachirō in the second month of 1837, Ikuta rallied anti-Bakufu sympathizers in the region and in the sixth month of 1838 attacked the Tokugawa forces stationed at Kashiwazaki. His rebellion failed to gain the support of local farmers.

You have a few possibilities, you can try to have those two leaders meet each others in North Eastern Japan, but it would only create a small revolt. I think you could use multiple events and trends of this time. My personal method would use :

- Kōgo Fire of Edo (1834)
- The 7.6 magnitude earthquake in the Sanriku region (1835)
- The two revolts we spoke about
- Mizuno Tadakuni and Tenpō Reforms (OTL 1845)
- and the Western Ideas movement (which began in Osaka/Tekijuku) of Ogata Kōan in 1839.

First of all, let's imagine that the Bakufu (Shogunate) decides to enact the Tenpō Reforms earlier due to the traumas of the Kōgo Fire of Edo and the 7.6 magnitude earthquake in the Sanriku region (1835). Let's say that they are implemented in 1836.

The Tenpō Reforms weren't simply sumptuary or economic laws, but they were also political and were meant to consolidate Tokugawa control. They banned most forms of entertainment and displays of wealth. This proved extremely unpopular with the commoners and merchants (who were numerous in Osaka). The Reform also banned Rangaku (Dutch Learning). Another part of the Reform included the Agechi-rei which was to have daimyō in the vicinity of Edo and Ōsaka surrender their holdings for equal amounts of land elsewhere, thereby consolidating Tokugawa control over these strategically vital areas. The ordinances also included the returns of peasants in Edo to their village to improve food production and the abolishment of kabunakama (merchant monopoly association).

In 1837, Ōshio Heihachirō (as in OTL) begins his revolt, but is this time helped by various supporters of the former daimyōs of Osaka region, including samurai retailers and lesser daiymo. The merchants also join the revolt due to the sumptuary laws. A few months later, Ikuta Yorozu's rebellion begins and is followed by more numerous anti-Bakufu sympathizers and is able to gain the support of the peasants.

Another revolt begins near Edo, helped by sympathizers of former daiymos of the region. Meanwhile, in Osaka, Ogata Kōan joins the rebellion and speaks about the necessities of reforms and the power of western ideas. It pushes hidden christians and western ideas sympathizers to join the movement. A secret meeting is set to Kyoto between Ogata Kōan, Ōshio Heihachirō, Ikuta Yorozu and the Emperor himself. :)
 
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There were two famous revolts during the Tenpo famine, which means that many other probably occurred.
......
A secret meeting is set to Kyoto between Ogata Kōan, Ōshio Heihachirō, Ikuta Yorozu and the Emperor himself. :)
"I jumped out of the bathtub and raced into the streets, yelling, 'EUREKA! EUREKA! WE HAVE FOUND THE ANSWER!'" :D:D:D
this is quite excellent, goes along with some plans of mine.
So after this, Japan will become even more isolationist, right?
Okay, I can open up Korea fully by 1830. So it could accept all the Japanese merchants and materials of Westernisation (rubbing hands gleefully) good, all going according to plan...(evil cackle):D:D

EDIT: on top of that, can we expect the Dutch being kicked out of Japan? Japan may be like, "they are the root of all evil and against Neo-Confucian ideals" and throw them away...
 
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Neirdak

Banned
"I jumped out of the bathtub and raced into the streets, yelling, 'EUREKA! EUREKA! WE HAVE FOUND THE ANSWER!'" :D:D:D
this is quite excellent, goes along with some plans of mine.
So after this, Japan will become even more isolationist, right?
Okay, I can open up Korea fully by 1830. So it could accept all the Japanese merchants and materials of Westernisation (rubbing hands gleefully) good, all going according to plan...(evil cackle):D:D

EDIT: on top of that, can we expect the Dutch being kicked out of Japan? Japan may be like, "they are the root of all evil and against Neo-Confucian ideals" and throw them away...

According to what I wrote, it would be the opposite and lead to earlier Meiji in Japan (westernization) and to more foreign exchanges. :cool:

I included Ogata Kōan in the revolt and this guy is well known for importing Western medical knowledge into Japan during Japan's isolationist era and for establishing the Tekijuku (適塾) school that later developed into Osaka University in 1938. Ogata used his small but precious collection of Dutch books, including a Dutch-Japanese dictionary and a Dutch encyclopedia, to teach his pupils to read scientific Dutch texts. He was one of the pillars of Westernization/Rangaku.

Among the alumni of Tekijuku you have :

- Fukuzawa Yukichi (Japanese Voltaire and political reformer. He published the first English-Japanese dictionary).
- Ōmura Masujirō (father of the modern japanese army).
- Ōtori Keisuke (Shogunate commander, historian and diplomat to China and Korea).
- Takeda Ayasaburō (military architect, navigator)
- Shōzan Sakuma (telegraph)
- Udagawa Yōan (chemistry)
- ...
- to have fun : look at Tanaka Hisashige (Japanese Edison)

By the way if you need four guys for dirty work for the Emperor or the Shogun, have a look at the Bakumatsu Shidai Hitokiri.

What's your aim ?

*looks who the OP is* Oh I see.

If your aim is to export the Westernization to Korea, simply have this revolt fail utterly. Normally the Shogunate would execute all revolters or crucify them, a solution is to exile all of them to Satsuma and later outside of Japan, but you won't be able to butterfly Admiral Perry and Meiji. You would need a earlier POD to modernize Korea through Japanese westernizers only.

BUT :

I have a stupid idea : Use the Tsushima Island like OTL Dejima in Nagasaki and have the foreigners who trade with Japan forced to stay there. Originally built in 1634 to house Portuguese traders, Dejima was used by the Dutch as a trading post from 1641 until 1853. So in 1634 or in 1641 or later, make sure that Japan tells the Gaijins that they can only trade with Japan from Tsushima Island (POD).

During the Bakufu (Shogunate), the foreign relations policy of Japan (or Sakoku) under which no foreigner could enter nor could any Japanese leave the country on penalty of death stated that the trade with Dutch and China was restricted in Nagasaki and that trade with Korea was to be made from Tsushima domain. Trade with the Ainus in Matsumae Domain and trade with the Ryukyu was limited to Satsuma Domain.

A very isolationist Shogun decides, in 1634 or 1641, that trade with Western countries (China, Europe and Korea) is now to be made in Tsushima Domain (and on Tsushima Island exclusively) in order to avoid the contact of foreigners with Japanese citizens (except the inhabitants of Tsushima). Tsushima Island is ideally situated between Korea and Japan and can become a major trade hub for Dutch traders to Japan AND to Korea.

Pusan (Korea) 50km- Tsushima - 50km Iki (Japan)

With a continuously isolationist Japan during the Bakufu (Shogunate), the Dutch will automatically switch to Korea (seeking profits) and propagate their western ideas there too. They could even directly build a trade port in Korea. If you can get one open-minded Korea (at least more open-minded than the Shogunate which is easy), you can surely get a Korean Meiji before Japanese Meiji of 1868, especially if you think that trade from Tsushima will create less direct western contact for Japanese population than trade from Nagasaki.

I just destroyed the pre-Commodore Perry Westernization of Japan. *will commit Seppuku*
 
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real good, I must say.
However, may I ask this:
let's say the POD was 1788, Korea opens up its ports and Japan is left in a Neo-Confucian madness with chaos all over.
Would the Dutch and Japanese sailors/merchants escape to Korea?
Can we make that faster with the British attacking Japan during the Napoleonic Wars? (assuming there is a reason for doing so)
very interested in hearing your answer, Neirdak and others..:D:D:D
 

elkarlo

Banned
The past Shogun dinasty will NOT return, that is sure. They had a shacky, and who grown quickly weaker and weaker, rule, kinda discredited in the heads of many and not respected anymore (this is WHY Sangoku era and all this happened).

My bet would be a southern lords coalition maybe, later one.

You mean the Kyushu western Honshu clans? I think they'd be the larger driving force in creating a new dynasty.
 

elkarlo

Banned
How would an earlier Imperial restoration be? If the emperor was restored in the 1830s, it'd be this guy:
Ninko Emperor
well, he was quite anti-economic development. Would this mean that Japan actually may go backwards rather than go forwards?
His plans for making peasant class the ideal member of society would bring interesting ramifications...

That would have interesting consequences. As the samurai class was being crushed by debt. I wonder how that would affect this time line?
 
According to what I wrote, it would be the opposite and lead to earlier Meiji in Japan (westernization) and to more foreign exchanges. :cool:
snip
I am aware this would be bringing up a dead thread, but I will post on here because Neridak seems not to be a regular user of this forum. And I do want him to answer this question. If others have an answer, that will certainly be entertained.
My question would be this: could this POD in 1830s Japan bring the ramification of a divided nation? Or does the ideological basis of Shintoism-Confucianism simply not allow that? You mention that it would be impossible to make Meiji come slower- could this POD, then, make the Meiji Ishin fail?
thanks.
 
I am aware this would be bringing up a dead thread . . .

I will not comment on the issues concerning Japan, but OP's (original posters) are generally allowed to post on their own threads without restrictions. In other words, the OP can theoretically post years after the last post without the thread being locked as long as the content is relevant. As a result, there is no particular need to "bump" your own thread, as people generally don't respond because they don't know enough about the scenario to comment. In addition, although there is no specific definition regarding the limit for necromancy, six months to a year is generally the unspoken rule, so a week or so isn't even enough to be considered an issue, and several months should be fine as well.

Necromancy generally only applies to members searching for and posting in a thread that had remained inactive for years, and members repetitively doing so have been kicked and/or banned, although a one-time offense does not carry such a penalty. Providing "justification" for a true case of resurrecting a dead thread is essentially irrelevant to the mods, as they only take the time limit (and the OP exception) into consideration. The only exception is when a post is through and relevant to the OP, although this is very rare.

On the other hand, consistently bumping threads without providing significant contributions is technically not against the rules, although it will generally be frowned upon by others due to poor etiquette, and the member in question may be disciplined if the mods decide that it is a form of trolling, as it can become extremely disruptive in some cases.

Hope this explanation helps other members as well.
 
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I will not comment on the issues concerning Japan, but OP's (original posters) are generally allowed to post on their own threads without restrictions. In other words, the OP can theoretically post years after the last post without the thread being locked as long as the content is relevant. As a result, there is no particular need to "bump" your own thread, as people generally don't respond because they don't know enough about the scenario to comment. In addition, although there is no specific definition regarding the limit for necromancy, six months to a year is generally the unspoken rule, so a week or so isn't even enough to be considered an issue, and several months should be fine as well.

Necromancy generally only applies to members searching for and posting in a thread that had remained inactive for years, and members repetitively doing so have been kicked and/or banned, although a one-time offense does not carry such a penalty. Providing "justification" for a true case of resurrecting a dead thread is essentially irrelevant to the mods, as they only take the time limit (and the OP exception) into consideration. The only exception is when a post is through and relevant to the OP, although this is very rare.

On the other hand, consistently bumping threads without providing significant contributions is technically not against the rules, although it will generally be frowned upon by others due to poor etiquette, and the member in question may be disciplined if the mods decide that it is a form of trolling, as it can become extremely disruptive in some cases.

Hope this explanation helps other members as well.
ah, okay. Thanks for the explanation and comment.
btw, haven't seen you for some time, haven't we? :D:D
hope to see you around more, I'll soon be in much need of your help...:)
 
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