WI: Japanese involvement in Sino-Franco War

In 1883, the French had been trying to gain alliance with the Japanese against China to help their war in Vietnam, but at that time the Japanese were averse to the idea of jumping into a conflict with China. As time went on though the Japanese attitude began to shift, especially after the failed Gapsin Coup in December of 1884. It was President Ferry's hope that Japan could be brought into the war with this latest event, however Henryk Sienkiewicz didn't communicate President Ferry's renewed offer of a military alliance with Japan to the Japanese and in just a few months the Tonkin Affair would bring the war to a close. What if Sienkiewicz had done as he'd been instructed and managed to secure a military alliance with the Japanese? We're still a decade out from the OTL Sino-Japanese War, can Japan's involvement so late in the game really turn the tide of the conflict? What would be the main theater for the Japanese, North Vietnam or Korea?
 
Korea, most likely.
This would be good news for the French, who would be able to extract more gains from China, such as Taiwan.
There is also the possibility of Russia dogpiling in, as i mentioned before. In case of such a massive Qing defeat in this war, i could see major unrest within China. Either there's an earlier Boxer Rebellion of sorts or the Qing are overthrown.
 
Korea, most likely.
This would be good news for the French, who would be able to extract more gains from China, such as Taiwan.
Not good news for the Japanese. I would expect the French to stiff them of any reward for their assistance. Probably a little pain but no gain.
 
Worry about Japan and Russia were key factors the Qing government accepted peace terms. At this point the Qing army was reasonably capable. They managed to get Russia to back down in Xinjiang in 1881 and won some battles against the French. In some cases the Chinese were better armed than the French. They had some Remington Lee and Winchester Hotchkiss repeaters while the French had single shot Gras. However the prospect of losing Taiwan was too much for keeping France out of Vietnam.

Perhaps the war faction would keep China in the war if the French hadn’t destroyed the Chinese navy in their surprise attack, allowing China better prospects of reinforcing Taiwan. This could then led to wider foreign involvement.
 

raharris1973

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Screwed relative to OTL, because they don't get Taiwan. But compared to the history they know, the French alliance and the opportunity to hit Korea at the same time, and the likely gain of influence/control over Korea.

There is also the possibility of Russia dogpiling in, as i mentioned before.

What would be the likely Russian pickings at this point?

And what would Britain, Germany and the US think about this dog piling?
 
What would be the likely Russian pickings at this point?
If the Russians were to dogpile on at this moment then they're gonna want to reverse the 1881 Treaty of St. Petersburg and make gains in Xinjiang.
And what would Britain, Germany and the US think about this dog piling?
Britain isn't going to be happy about this at all. There were supporters of an Anglo-Sino alliance to check the Russians in Central Asia only a few years earlier so maybe that gets revived. Bismark may very well see this as an opportunity to help bolster the revived League of the Three Emperors by diplomatically supporting the Russians and warm relations with the French. If that happens, I don't see the British going to war with most of Europe and Japan to defend the Qing, but I can see them extending a helping hand to the Chinese after the war. The US is going to be fairly annoyed by this, but the OTL Open Door Note is well over a decade away.
 

raharris1973

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If the Russians were to dogpile on at this moment then they're gonna want to reverse the 1881 Treaty of St. Petersburg and make gains in Xinjiang.

Britain isn't going to be happy about this at all. There were supporters of an Anglo-Sino alliance to check the Russians in Central Asia only a few years earlier so maybe that gets revived. Bismark may very well see this as an opportunity to help bolster the revived League of the Three Emperors by diplomatically supporting the Russians and warm relations with the French. If that happens, I don't see the British going to war with most of Europe and Japan to defend the Qing, but I can see them extending a helping hand to the Chinese after the war. The US is going to be fairly annoyed by this, but the OTL Open Door Note is well over a decade away.

If Bismarck lines up with the continentals and Japan in this case, Germany could also probably grab a Chinese port out of the deal. Qingdao or perhaps Amoy or Xhoushan or some other location. The German's only ultimately moved on Qingdao in OTL 1897, but had been scouting around for years.
 
France stiffed China when they helped them develop their navy, check out the substandard 2nd rate ships they produced at the Foochow Arsenal and which the French destroyed quite easily. Plus they held up the battleships they had being built in Europe so they would not be available for the Sino-French War.

Japan got stiffed the first time when they took Port Arthur by European pressure and politics. Russia picked it up instead. Japan was pretty much acting alone except for British help. Britain had the best navy in the world, and Japan wanted the best navy in Asia. Same reason they dropped the French model for their army after Prussian whupped them in 1870, they then went to the Prussian model.

I can't see Japan helping out France or China in this one. As in Korea being the problem between China and Japan.
 
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