WI: Japanese-Ethiopian "Molotov-Ribbentrop" Pact?

Britain would probably never cede Somaliland to Ethiopia, even if the Ethiopians could provide large amounts of labor the allies already had that in the form of African, Chinese and Indian workers.
Not even with an alternate German-trained Ethiopian Army serving on the East African and/or Middle Eastern Fronts?
 
So basically Japan acts the way China acts in Africa today, but 90 years earlier?

Ethiopia does not have a coast, so the Japanese will either crash with the Italians, or the British might be willing to let them transport things through Somaliland.

A Japan that can get most of its needs raw materials from Africa sounds interesting enough.

But it is a long way from Tokio to Addis Ababa.

And we all want to see an Japanese-Italian War in the late 1930s, with Japanese carriers in the Mediterranean, don't we?
I guess one should be used to it given the anglocentric bias on the forum, but the railroad into Ethiopia isn't in either Italian or British territory, but rather in French Somaliland (Djibouti) which leads to Addis Adaba. Its the French, not the British or Italians, who control the Ethiopian transport infrastructure. Unless if the action also involves the British building a rail line to the Ethiopian border and the Ethiopians connecting that as well, then getting access rights through British Somaliland is useless: the same can be said about Italian Eritrea.

Not even with an alternate German-trained Ethiopian Army serving on the East African and/or Middle Eastern Fronts?
The sum total of French and British territorial colonial adjustments in favor of their allies following the First World War was to transfer some scraps of useless desert and a part of Somalia to Italy. At most Ethiopia would get the Thai treatment: some internal restrictions on its sovereignty lifted. More likely it would be broadly ignored.

Building a capable professional military capable of fighting in the Middle East or German East Africa is essentially impossible: the Ethiopian army at Adwa was not a standing army, but rather a large mobilized levy force. Ethiopia did not have the financial capability to deploy a meaningfully sized professional army that would be combat effective, and the Entente has plenty of colonial possessions with an abundance of manpower to throw at the problem if they need more peasant conscripts.
 
I guess one should be used to it given the anglocentric bias on the forum, but the railroad into Ethiopia isn't in either Italian or British territory, but rather in French Somaliland (Djibouti) which leads to Addis Adaba. Its the French, not the British or Italians, who control the Ethiopian transport infrastructure. Unless if the action also involves the British building a rail line to the Ethiopian border and the Ethiopians connecting that as well, then getting access rights through British Somaliland is useless: the same can be said about Italian Eritrea.
What about French Somaliland being ceded to Ethiopia?
 
What about French Somaliland being ceded to Ethiopia?
Again, its like with Italy: the British and French were both extremely reluctant to give up their colonies, and there's very little chance of Ethiopia actually being able to provide something to both make their contribution worth it. And even if it was that they did make such a contribution, they have to actually have the power to make it so that either the French or British feel compelled to give something up, instead of simply proceeding to ignore their promises post war, just as they did to a far more powerful Italy. I can't see any such possibility.

On the other hand it isn't impossible that the French allow transit for Japanese goods through. The French in the 1930s had been passive before Japan in China during the first part of the decade, concerned about their relative weakness in the region, and rejected cooperation with the Anglo-Americans (at least this is my recollection from La France en Chine: 1843-1943, which to be fair I did read a year and a half ago and is a continent and an ocean away so I can hardly check it). A combination of coercion via threats against French interests in China, incentives with economic agreements (Japan and French Indochina had vigorous exchanges of Indochinese rice, coal, and I presume rubber in exchange for Japanese manufactured goods like textiles - some sort of alteration in their favor of the French is what I'd see as a possibility, but I am sure there are other, more direct routes), and crises in Franco-Italian relations which happened at several occasions, would probably be more than enough for the French to enable wide shipments of goods into Ethiopia. Historically the Germans sent arms to Ethiopia during the Italian-Ethiopian war which I can only presume had to be transported through the French railroad, it being the only route into the country, so therefor the French don't seem to have been particularly picky concerning it.
 
in regards to a stronger Ethiopia, why would it menace the Italian colonies? It isn't like she can simply invade Italian Eritrea and/or Somaliland without consequences to her sovereignty.

I was thinking of an Anglo-Ethiopian invasion.

No way you get English troops to invade somewhere far from Istanbul when the much more daring attempt at Gallipoli failed hard. They are needed to prevent the fall of France.
But (a big) if Ethiopian troops are good enough to get results, by starting from Medina or Suez and in their own, against the Ottomans you can be sure Ii could no longer be ignored (and probably denied anything useful). After all, it means any future attempt at expansion by them can only be stopped with a decent number of modern troops.
 
No way you get English troops to invade somewhere far from Istanbul when the much more daring attempt at Gallipoli failed hard. They are needed to prevent the fall of France.
But (a big) if Ethiopian troops are good enough to get results, by starting from Medina or Suez and in their own, against the Ottomans you can be sure Ii could no longer be ignored (and probably denied anything useful). After all, it means any future attempt at expansion by them can only be stopped with a decent number of modern troops.
When I was referring to an Anglo-Ethiopian invasion from Egypt, I meant the British Commonwealth forces that fought in the Sinai-Palestinian Campaign. That reminds of something - the Jewish Legion, could there be a few volunteer battalions mobilized from Ethiopia's Jewish populace?

Having Ethiopian troops capture Mecca and/or Medina would be a terrible idea which is why I proposed that Ethiopian forces either participate in the East African or Sinai-Palestinian Fronts.
 
Again, its like with Italy: the British and French were both extremely reluctant to give up their colonies, and there's very little chance of Ethiopia actually being able to provide something to both make their contribution worth it. And even if it was that they did make such a contribution, they have to actually have the power to make it so that either the French or British feel compelled to give something up, instead of simply proceeding to ignore their promises post war, just as they did to a far more powerful Italy. I can't see any such possibility.

On the other hand it isn't impossible that the French allow transit for Japanese goods through. The French in the 1930s had been passive before Japan in China during the first part of the decade, concerned about their relative weakness in the region, and rejected cooperation with the Anglo-Americans (at least this is my recollection from La France en Chine: 1843-1943, which to be fair I did read a year and a half ago and is a continent and an ocean away so I can hardly check it). A combination of coercion via threats against French interests in China, incentives with economic agreements (Japan and French Indochina had vigorous exchanges of Indochinese rice, coal, and I presume rubber in exchange for Japanese manufactured goods like textiles - some sort of alteration in their favor of the French is what I'd see as a possibility, but I am sure there are other, more direct routes), and crises in Franco-Italian relations which happened at several occasions, would probably be more than enough for the French to enable wide shipments of goods into Ethiopia. Historically the Germans sent arms to Ethiopia during the Italian-Ethiopian war which I can only presume had to be transported through the French railroad, it being the only route into the country, so therefor the French don't seem to have been particularly picky concerning it.
Perhaps Ethiopia joins the Entente shortly after World War 1 breaks out (in support of the Franco-Russian alliance) and is convinced that it will be a short war initially, only to end up losing hundreds of thousands of men in the European or Middle Eastern Fronts. Or is that implausible?

If Franco-Italian relations worsen over colonial tensions, could this lead to support for Ethiopia during any alt-Italian invasion of Ethiopia?
 
What would you recommend?

I would suggest they do what they did historically, concern yourself with richer, nearby areas . What is the thinking here? Today Ethiopia , tomorrow the world? :biggrin: I can't see what Japan gains out of this. It annoys a Great Power to have some influence over a distant backwater. That would be insane, even by post- WWI Japanese standards , which is saying a lot.
 
I would suggest they do what they did historically, concern yourself with richer, nearby areas . What is the thinking here? Today Ethiopia , tomorrow the world? :biggrin: I can't see what Japan gains out of this. It annoys a Great Power to have some influence over a distant backwater. That would be insane, even by post- WWI Japanese standards, which is saying a lot.
I'm not proposing any military alliance where Japanese forces are based in Ethiopia but rather the cementing of Japanese-Ethiopian ties that see closer economic cooperation and assistance in modernization. Then again, I'm starting to think this is a bit implausible.
 
I'm not proposing any military alliance where Japanese forces are based in Ethiopia but rather the cementing of Japanese-Ethiopian ties that see closer economic cooperation and assistance in modernization. Then again, I'm starting to think this is a bit implausible.

I still can't see what Japan would get out of it. There isn't much Ethiopia can give Japan. It already had much better technology than Ethiopia.
 
I still can't see what Japan would get out of it. There isn't much Ethiopia can give Japan. It already had much better technology than Ethiopia.
Japan would receive exports of raw materials, investment opportunities and a chance to expand her influence throughout the world. In return, Ethiopia receives Japanese assistance in her modernization process which includes a Japanese Military Mission accompanied by shipments of surplus Japanese equipment.
 
Japan would receive exports of raw materials, investment opportunities and a chance to expand her influence throughout the world. In return, Ethiopia receives Japanese assistance in her modernization process which includes a Japanese Military Mission accompanied by shipments of surplus Japanese equipment.

Not by much and probably not worth the cost. Ethiopia was and is a poor backwater. They didn't have much to export.
 
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