WI: Japanese-Ethiopian "Molotov-Ribbentrop" Pact?

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...ethiopian-alliance-in-the-20s-and-30s.450176/

In the thread above, I proposed a potential Japanese-Ethiopian Pact that is somewhat similar to how the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact functioned. Its main points are:
  • Economic cooperation.
  • Importation and Exportation of raw resources to the other.
  • Technological assistance.
  • Military assistance.
  • Recognition of spheres of influence in other's regions.
  • Not concluding any mutual defense pact.
What could happen as a result of this?
 

oberdada

Gone Fishin'
So basically Japan acts the way China acts in Africa today, but 90 years earlier?

Ethiopia does not have a coast, so the Japanese will either crash with the Italians, or the British might be willing to let them transport things through Somaliland.

A Japan that can get most of its needs raw materials from Africa sounds interesting enough.

But it is a long way from Tokio to Addis Ababa.




And we all want to see an Japanese-Italian War in the late 1930s, with Japanese carriers in the Mediterranean, don't we?
 
So basically Japan acts the way China acts in Africa today, but 90 years earlier?

Ethiopia does not have a coast, so the Japanese will either crash with the Italians, or the British might be willing to let them transport things through Somaliland.

A Japan that can get most of its needs raw materials from Africa sounds interesting enough.

But it is a long way from Tokio to Addis Ababa.
In the link I posted, there was the POD of Ethiopia receiving British Somaliland in exchange for joining ww1.
 
It wasn't really given to Italy. No way it would be given to Ethiopia... To join WW1, and contribute how exactly?
I was thinking Ethiopia could contribute through sending much of her manpower to German East Africa and/or the Middle East. Also, didn’t the Italians receive Trans-Juba from British East Africa?
 
I was thinking Ethiopia could contribute through sending much of her manpower to German East Africa and/or the Middle East. Also, didn’t the Italians receive Trans-Juba from British East Africa?

Which is the point - of course Italy was a colonial rival, but even then, not much was given. Giving land (or even sea access) to Ethiopia would be akin to an insult; British diplomacy would be wary of doing such a thing. Lastly, you need to find a POD to prevent the internal strife of 1913-16 (when the scandalous Iyasu V was ousted) and a way to ferry all those men (no small feat).

All of this for what amounted, in British planning, to a minor Front (German East Africa) and a very dubious invasion (inviting nearby Christians to invade Islamic areas seems a great way to boost resistance).

I'm not fully averse, but there are a lot of problems with the Plan.
 
Which is the point - of course Italy was a colonial rival, but even then, not much was given. Giving land (or even sea access) to Ethiopia would be akin to an insult; British diplomacy would be wary of doing such a thing. Lastly, you need to find a POD to prevent the internal strife of 1913-16 (when the scandalous Iyasu V was ousted) and a way to ferry all those men (no small feat).

All of this for what amounted, in British planning, to a minor Front (German East Africa) and a very dubious invasion (inviting nearby Christians to invade Islamic areas seems a great way to boost resistance).

I'm not fully averse, but there are a lot of problems with the Plan.
How much would Rome care about Ethiopia receiving British Somaliland when she's focused on fighting against Austria-Hungary? How much would Ottoman resistance actually intensify if Ethiopia joined the Entente and Ethiopian troops were fighting against their own?
 
How much would Rome care about Ethiopia receiving British Somaliland when she's focused on fighting against Austria-Hungary? How much would Ottoman resistance actually intensify if Ethiopia joined the Entente and Ethiopian troops were fighting against their own?

A lot. After all, Adwa was a national shame. Besides, WW1 was not a time for sane diplomacy - as the post-War demands and overall settlements showed.

The Arab revolt worked because it pitted Muslims against Muslims; bring Christians from a somewhat nearby nation and fear will run high.
 
A lot. After all, Adwa was a national shame. Besides, WW1 was not a time for sane diplomacy - as the post-War demands and overall settlements showed.

The Arab revolt worked because it pitted Muslims against Muslims; bring Christians from a somewhat nearby nation and fear will run high.
IIRC, most Italians didn't really care about Adwa until Mussolini started putting a good amount of emphasis on it so I'm not sure.

Let's say this happens anyway - what do you think will happen?
 
IIRC, most Italians didn't really care about Adwa until Mussolini started putting a good amount of emphasis on it so I'm not sure.

Let's say this happens anyway - what do you think will happen?

I would agree, but treating Ethiopia as an equal of Italy would put salt in fresh wounds.

Assuming you somehow present a strong Ethiopia, I would still expect it to be less effective than the Arab Revolt.

Ethiopia would emerge as a minor, but not irrelevant, Secondary Power; but if Fascism still happens, there would be a greater rivalry (and yes, a higher likelyhood of Japan being a potential friend).
 
In regards to what @Evil Crusader said about another POD, I did some thinking and here's a rough sketch:

POD - On his deathbed in 1902-03, Ras Makonnen Wolde-Mikael requests that Emperor Menelik II adopt Lij Tafari Makonnen after he has died and Menelik decides to grant his close friend this one last request. Shortly before Ras Makonnen dies, Tafari is moved to Addis Ababa where Menelik brings him under his wing and allows for him to finish his traditional education while planning for him to receive an education abroad in either Paris or St. Petersburg when he's older. As he grows older, Tafari adopts Menelik's reformist views and grows more experienced in administering all corners of the Empire of Ethiopia while planning his own plans for extensive modernization in the future. The Russo-Japanese War goes largely as IOTL but Menelik takes an interest in this war, establishing diplomatic relations with Tokyo through his links in the UK and Russia where he becomes more interested. He learns of the quite successful modernizing process in Japan whereas Japan learns of Ethiopia's victory at Adwa in 1896, against Italy and this leads to comparisons with the 1905 Battle of Tsushima. Many in the Japanese government seemed to favor Ethiopia as an ally against European colonialism as Japan attempted to expand her influence to Africa but Menelik rejects any overtures at a military alliance, fearing that it would give the surrounding powers a casus belli to partition Ethiopia. This is accepted but both countries continue their respective modernization practices, although more Ethiopian students would be sent to Tokyo to receive a formal education as Menelik and Tafari become determined to modernize Ethiopia similarly to Japan. This includes Addis Ababa turning towards Germany as a model of modernization alongside the Russian Empire, alarming the surrounding colonial powers as a German Military Mission is invited to Ethiopia in 1905-06. The Imperial Ethiopian Army is established in 1907, consisting of a small core of professional 100,000 well-trained and well-equipped men while surrounding it with ill-trained and lightly-armed peasant troops. The Emperor continues to grow old and sickly as time passes while Tafari focuses on consolidating his power over the Ethiopian government and gaining the favor of the commanders in the IEA in time for what seems to be nearing Menelik's death. Menelik dies in 1913, having managed to choose Ras Tafari Makonnen as his successor and soon enough, Ras Tafari Makonnen has been named Emperor Haile Selassie I while promising to bring Ethiopia to her deserved glory. First, he focuses on strengthening ties with Europe and Japan as more students are sent to the European Continent to bring back the knowledge required to modernize and Westernize the Ethiopian Empire. World War 1 breaks out largely as IOTL, Haile Selassie watching as the initially pan-European War expands to the international colonial empires and draws in more participants as he wants to see which side is winning. Both Entente and CP members pester the Ethiopian government to join, attempting to lure him in with promises of territory and modernization assistance but he recognizes that he is surrounded by the Entente on all sides. Haile Selassie chooses to remain neutral, wishing to focus on modernization - this sees increased construction of more railroads, improving communications and further urbanization while HS turns towards other sources of assistance. The US becomes more interested in Ethiopia, providing her with large sales of cotton and military equipment while Japan provides Ethiopia with the latter as well - HS finally chooses a side to join in 1915. Ethiopia enters the Great War on the Entente's side as war is proclaimed against the CP while relatively large detachments of men are sent abroad to serve alongside Entente forces in German East Africa and the Middle East. World War 1 continues largely as IOTL - except an earlier victory might be won against the Ottomans - while an Ethiopian Expeditionary Force is sent to the Western Front in 1917-18, attached to the French Army. The 369th Infantry Regiment serves alongside the Ethiopians who had become somewhat popular amongst the African-American community as Germany capitulates in 1918, officially ending the World War. Haile Selassie manages to gain French Somaliland but his claims to Yemen are rebuffed as the Kingdom of Yemen becomes an Italian protectorate, despite the significant amount of Ethiopian troops that had taken Yemen and defeated the main Ottoman force. This angers Haile Selassie, although he is smart enough to conceal his anger at the 1919 Paris Peace Conference and receives a small portion of financial reparations that Berlin was forced to cede. Despite this, Ethiopian modernization continued into the post-war years while a professionally trained and battle-hardened IEA is turned against the reactionary aristocrats after they revolt against Haile Selassie's new decree instituting effective land and tax reforms. Their forces are crushed and drafted into the IEA in 1918-19 as he turns towards the manifesting refugee situation of the Russian Civil War where Haile Selassie accepts Russian refugees fleeing the chaos of the RCW. Through the newly-opened embassy in Peking, Ethiopia accepts as many as 200,000 refugees that settle throughout Ethiopia and calls for international aid to assist these refugees as Ethiopia's international position is boosted among the nations of the world for accepting their Christian brethren. However, HS increasingly turns towards Japan as he focuses on cementing their ties and Tokyo convinces him to sign the Shidehara-Selassie Pact (between their respective Foreign Ministers) in 1925 which successfully cemented Japanese-Ethiopian ties with the marriage of Amha Selassie to Kuroda Masaka in the late 20s-early 30s.

Thoughts? Problems?
 
I would agree, but treating Ethiopia as an equal of Italy would put salt in fresh wounds.

Assuming you somehow present a strong Ethiopia, I would still expect it to be less effective than the Arab Revolt.

Ethiopia would emerge as a minor, but not irrelevant, Secondary Power; but if Fascism still happens, there would be a greater rivalry (and yes, a higher likelyhood of Japan being a potential friend).
What fresh wounds? What are you implying here?

How less effective are we talking here?

Do you think Ethiopia would go fascist?
 
What fresh wounds? What are you implying here?

How less effective are we talking here?

Do you think Ethiopia would go fascist?

The bad memories of Adwa, of course - no one likes being reminded of defeat. Plus, a stronger Ethiopia is a serious menace for Italian colonies.

I would expect any Ethiopian invasion to falter pretty quick, too. There's just no way they can do much against stiff local resistance.

I meant, if Italy went Fascist as per OTL.
 
The bad memories of Adwa, of course - no one likes being reminded of defeat. Plus, a stronger Ethiopia is a serious menace for Italian colonies.

I would expect any Ethiopian invasion to falter pretty quick, too. There's just no way they can do much against stiff local resistance.
I don't know how much of a bad memory Adwa was to Italy so I can't comment much on this but in regards to a stronger Ethiopia, why would it menace the Italian colonies? It isn't like she can simply invade Italian Eritrea and/or Somaliland without consequences to her sovereignty.

I was thinking of an Anglo-Ethiopian invasion.
 
Britain would probably never cede Somaliland to Ethiopia, even if the Ethiopians could provide large amounts of labor the allies already had that in the form of African, Chinese and Indian workers.
 
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