WI: Japanese-Ethiopian alliance in the 20s and 30s?

Doesn't change that the country cannot support a modern military without a huge expensive amount of investment, that I don't foresee without huge ASB wings flapping. All the gear, all the bullets and beans, would have had to been donated by the Allied Powers, since there was no way Ethiopia could support a modern (WWI) Army. Otherwise, all the Ethiopians would be good for was Coolie Labor, and the British and French already had plenty of that, no matter how brave or how badly they wanted to fight.

Even if equipped, by 1935, it would be down to a Palace Guard, because keeping a good sized modern army equipped is very expensive, and Ethiopia just doesn't have the economy for that.

Fighting in WWI will not change this
Not even with the establishment of a modern economy through extensively reforming Ethiopia?
 
Not even with the establishment of a modern economy through extensively reforming Ethiopia?
Won't happen that fast.

The closest example, was Meji era Japan, that took 40 years, and unlike Ethiopia, Japan had enough of an economy to be able to export fine luxury goods, that were in demand in the West to pay for industrialization and modernization

In 1900, the Ethiopian main exports was Coffee and Hides, yes there were Gold mines, had been there since antiquity, and was expected to be mostly played out, like the other mining sites that had been active for over a thousand years.

During the initial Race For Africa, all the resource rich areas got gobbled up, and even not so rich areas.

Ethiopia was poor.
Very poor. So was left for Italy. French and British didn't want it.
 
Italy had an GDP per capita in 1930 of about 2500 USD (1990). This translates to about 65 Sterling per capita in 1930. Their population was about 41 million in 1930. This means the total Italian GDP was around 2665 million Sterling. Italy spent about 4% of their total GDP on their military in 1930 so that brings Italy's military budget to 106.6 million Sterling. If Ethiopia has an economy that is about 4% of Italy's and is willing to spend the same percentage on their military when most other countries were spending 1% or less, Ethiopia has at most 4.3 million sterling to spend. However, Ethiopia didn't spend anything close to that figure since they entered the war in 1936 still using ridiculously obsolete equipment for their military. So where would the millions of sterling come to develop a port (from virtually nothing), train sailors (from nothing) and buy just a handful of ships (from nothing) come from?
Have you a citation for this figure.
I'd remind you that in this timeline diverges almost twenty years prior to the (putative) Italian second invasion and also has a significantly larger Ethiopia, incorporating British Somaliland. Given that it was part of the victorious Entente the economic picture would be somewhat more favourable also.

In fact the Italian meddling with Ethiopia may well be entirely butterflied by the different relationship with Britain (as Britain had, since 1925, supported Italian demands against Ethiopia and recignised it as being part of Italy's sphere of interest in Africa)
 
I brought up the idea of Ethiopia utilizing Russian naval officers to staff a potential Ethiopian Navy and then train the sailors necessary for such a force - could that work?

I was considering a combination of economic cooperation, trade and military assistance.
There were also rather a lot of Swedes active in Ethiopia in the thirties (and indeed later).
 

nbcman

Donor
Have you a citation for this figure.
I'd remind you that in this timeline diverges almost twenty years prior to the (putative) Italian second invasion and also has a significantly larger Ethiopia, incorporating British Somaliland. Given that it was part of the victorious Entente the economic picture would be somewhat more favourable also.

In fact the Italian meddling with Ethiopia may well be entirely butterflied by the different relationship with Britain (as Britain had, since 1925, supported Italian demands against Ethiopia and recignised it as being part of Italy's sphere of interest in Africa)

I've searched repeatedly and couldn't find a value for Ethiopia's GDP in the mid 1930s. This table lists the GDP per capita which includes values for 1929. Italy has a per capita GDP of 4544 (2007 USD) while Ethiopia is at the bottom of the list at 588 (however it was for 1950!). As cited previously, Italy's population around 1930 was 41 million while Ethiopia's is harder to find. This site has a population of about 16 million for Ethiopia but the population figures vary wildly during the early 1900s. Most other sites have lower populations that are closer to 10 million, such as Wiki that has the total Italian East Africa population at 12 million in 1939. No matter, we will calculate using the higher population value and the 1950 GDP value for Ethiopia. This would mean Italy's economy is 41 million x 4544 = 186,304 million versus Ethiopia 588 x 16 million = 9,408 million. This means that OTL Ethiopia in 1930 had a GDP at most 5% of Italy's but it was most likely in the range of 2 to 4% of Italy's GDP. Adding British Somaliland adds maybe another 200,000 people and very little economically since the British set up the protectorate primarily to supply meat to their Aden base. The Ethiopians are just too poor to achieve much without extensive economic gifting from an external source or by divine / ASB intervention.

So how is Ethiopia going to dig themselves out of this economic hole? It would take a growth rate of 5% per year to double their economy by 1935 but there is a small thing called the Great Depression which is going to impact their growth in 1929. It would probably take growth closer to 10% per year in the 1920's to allow the Ethiopian economy to grow enough while allowing for some shrink in the late 1920s and early 1930s.
 
The Italians had 6 battleships, 19 cruisers, 59 destroyers, 67 torpedo boats, and 116 submarines.
But most of that cant be risked past Suez even if they are allowed to send it by GB, sending more than CAs with the tension level with Fr/GB is simply risking losing the fleet and home waters without anyway to get home....
 
I'm not seeing what Japan gets out of this alliance.

The 1920s Imperial Japanese Navy's battleships and battlecruisers, at this time, are mixed coal and oil firing. Where are the friendly ports for them to refuel, or are they going to develop long-range colliers and fleet oilers earlier?

The Anglo-Japanese Alliance is no longer in effect by 1922, and the Washington Naval Treaty is in effect. Japan has fewer ships now, and the Royal Navy would not appreciate them being near the Gulf of Aden.

Japan gains access to... a poor country with an uncertain amount and type of resources to be utilized, which it can't feasibly supply, loses a lot of the value in resources due to the expense of shipping them literally halfway across the world, spread the IJN and IJA even thinner.

All this, and China is on their doorstep. It just doesn't add up.
 
I've searched repeatedly and couldn't find a value for Ethiopia's GDP in the mid 1930s. This table lists the GDP per capita which includes values for 1929. Italy has a per capita GDP of 4544 (2007 USD) while Ethiopia is at the bottom of the list at 588 (however it was for 1950!). As cited previously, Italy's population around 1930 was 41 million while Ethiopia's is harder to find. This site has a population of about 16 million for Ethiopia but the population figures vary wildly during the early 1900s. Most other sites have lower populations that are closer to 10 million, such as Wiki that has the total Italian East Africa population at 12 million in 1939. No matter, we will calculate using the higher population value and the 1950 GDP value for Ethiopia. This would mean Italy's economy is 41 million x 4544 = 186,304 million versus Ethiopia 588 x 16 million = 9,408 million. This means that OTL Ethiopia in 1930 had a GDP at most 5% of Italy's but it was most likely in the range of 2 to 4% of Italy's GDP. Adding British Somaliland adds maybe another 200,000 people and very little economically since the British set up the protectorate primarily to supply meat to their Aden base. The Ethiopians are just too poor to achieve much without extensive economic gifting from an external source or by divine / ASB intervention.

So how is Ethiopia going to dig themselves out of this economic hole? It would take a growth rate of 5% per year to double their economy by 1935 but there is a small thing called the Great Depression which is going to impact their growth in 1929. It would probably take growth closer to 10% per year in the 1920's to allow the Ethiopian economy to grow enough while allowing for some shrink in the late 1920s and early 1930s.
According to Haile Selassie, Ethiopia's population was around 9-11 million people strong by 1935-36 - if that helps.

How could Ethiopia get her economic growth to increase?
 
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trurle

Banned
I'm not seeing what Japan gets out of this alliance.

The 1920s Imperial Japanese Navy's battleships and battlecruisers, at this time, are mixed coal and oil firing. Where are the friendly ports for them to refuel, or are they going to develop long-range colliers and fleet oilers earlier?

The Anglo-Japanese Alliance is no longer in effect by 1922, and the Washington Naval Treaty is in effect. Japan has fewer ships now, and the Royal Navy would not appreciate them being near the Gulf of Aden.

Japan gains access to... a poor country with an uncertain amount and type of resources to be utilized, which it can't feasibly supply, loses a lot of the value in resources due to the expense of shipping them literally halfway across the world, spread the IJN and IJA even thinner.

All this, and China is on their doorstep. It just doesn't add up.
For very small assistance, Japan may get small yet valuable returns in Ethiopia (especially in now Eritrea) mining concessions:
Here resources in order of decreased availability (simply distance from coast)
1) Alid Volcano - mischmetal (useful for lighters and incendiaries) and zircons (refractory crucibles)
2) Danakil depression - barium (useful for vacuum tube getters and cathodes - IOTL, Japan imported all barium untill 1943) and platinum (again, refractory industrial goods)
3) Gimbi- iridium, rhodium, ruthenium, platinum (refractories)
4) Shakiso - poly-metallic, including nickel (alloy steel), molybdenum (light bulbs and marine-grade alloy steel - IOTL Japan started domestic mining of molybdenum from 1931), tantalum (refractories), bismuth (fuses, medicines) etc. Actually molybdenum has huge synergistic effect on industry - more productivity due better lighting, more pressure to develop power networks, less tungsten diverted from tool steel applications. Also, reduced maintenance and better longevity of existing assets due rust reduction in salt spray zone (very important for Japan).
5) Kenticha mine - tantalum (refractories) and niobium (rockets, capacitors)

Some of application were not recognized by Japan in time IOTL - but with extra foresight and consistent policy the resources above can be obtained for small transport expenditures and virtually garbage - obsolete firearms (especially Murata rifles) plus ammunition stocks for them. The Murata rifles stock would be pretty average compared to OTL mix of rifles the Ehiopia had in 1935, may be increasing Ethiopian infantry power by 30-50%.
Navy: obsolete destroyers up to Harusame-class whose value for Ethiopia would be mostly deterrent rather than battle force.
Some automobiles (Japan produced Ford model A since 1928 too), plus radios for better liaison.
 
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Some of application were not recognized by Japan in time IOTL - but with extra foresight and consistent policy the resources above can be obtained for small transport expenditures and virtually garbage - obsolete firearms (especially Murata rifles) plus ammunition stocks for them. The Murata rifles stock would be pretty average compared to OTL mix of rifles the Ehiopia had in 1935, may be increasing Ethiopian infantry power by 30-50%.
Navy: obsolete destroyers up to Harusame-class whose value for Ethiopia would be mostly deterrent rather than battle force.
Some automobiles (Japan produced Ford model A since 1928 too), plus radios for better liaison.
Could the Japanese test any new equipment in Ethiopia?
 
According to Haile Selassie, Ethiopia's population was around 9-11 million people strong by 1935-36 - if that helps.

How could Ethiopia get her economic growth to increase?

Time. Industralization needs an educated population, complete reliance on expat staff is both dangerous and not workable for long term. But even with all the money in the world, one just can't cramp the grade school curriculum into a child's brain in one year. And do not forget Ethiopia had a very illiterate population to begin.

Japan started with a more literate population, and it was one of the least powerful industralised countries among the belligerent countries in WWII.
 
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