WI: Japanese-Ethiopian alliance in the 20s and 30s?

I like that POD but there would be an impact to French-Soviet relations since the Soviets were awarded ownership of the Fleet in 1924. Maybe someone pays the equivalent price as the Soviets got for scrapping the ships that get handed over to the Ethiopians?
Perhaps the White Russians hold onto the Imperial Treasury in Siberia and its moved to Ethiopia alongside the rest of the White Russian fleet?
 

nbcman

Donor
Perhaps the White Russians hold onto the Imperial Treasury in Siberia and its moved to Ethiopia alongside the rest of the White Russian fleet?
According to this article of unknown truth as are many of the stories of the 'lost Russian gold', $4 Million US dollars were converted from Russian Gold and then burned when it was too expensive to store.

The lion’s share of the money received by the government of Admiral Kolchak and later “inherited” by his successors - Generals A.I. Denikin and P.N. Wrangel – was used for the purchase of arms, uniforms, and other military supplies. A sizable sum of money (over $4 million) was used to order bank notes in the USA. (The financiers of the White movement hoped to use the reliable American currency to stabilise the money supply in the regions under their control.) Ultimately, however, in order to avoid the high costs associated with storing the currency, the American notes were incinerated. The money was literally thrown to the wind.

Maybe the US dollars are handed over to the Soviets and some of the ships are saved. However, I have no idea how many ships $4 M USD would have saved.
 

trurle

Banned
Ethiopia also has gold. Perhaps the Asosa zone fold deposits are found a century earlier?
Japan had gold too, and average concentration of deposits in Japan is larger. In particular, huge Taio deposit in Kyushu was extensively developed in 1st half of 20th century. Furthermore, trade commodity like gold was less useful in the era of restricted trade before WWII compared to ores of alloy elements.
 

Zachariah

Banned
Apart of my POD is Ethiopia entering World War 1 on the side of the Entente, receiving professional training and an influx of new military equipment to arm an Ethiopian Expeditionary Force serving in either the Middle East or Europe. Depending on how large it is, the EEF is going to make up the nucleus of a new professional Ethiopian Army under an earlier Haile Selassie and receives additional training under a Japanese Military Mission in the 20s and 30s. This means that Ethiopia could defeat the Italians if such an invasion comes along similarly to OTL - why do you think mostly nothing would change?

With a POD this early, and Ethiopia on the side of the Entente as an active participant in WW1, plenty of stuff's still up for grabs. For instance, an Entente Ethiopia's going to be kept fairly busy, as an active counterweight to both the Ottomans and German East Africa. They're not going to be deployed to Europe- even precluding racism, there's not a chance in hell of that happening, and at that early stage in their divergence from OTL, they'd only get slaughtered anyway. But they would have a very, very good chance of being relatively successful- with Ethiopian manpower on the Entente's side (fighting alongside the Black South African, Indian, and other colonial troops which were considered unsuitable for European service as a matter of racial supremacist policy- who may or may not be more inclined to consider themselves more closely aligned with the Ethiopians instead as a result), it could easily swing the tide in their favor, and force the German colonial forces into surrender, leading to an Allied victory in East African Campaign by 1917. And of course, by then, the Ottoman Empire's already been torn apart by the Arab Revolt of 1916, leaving the Ethiopians (and their Japanese allies and observers) in the perfect position to capitalize and run rampant on the Middle Eastern front.

Only for them to then almost inevitably get treated in the same manner to the Japanese at the Paris Peace Conference, when the Ethiopians send their own delegation there. Course, the Japanese would, courtesy of their greater clout and influence in East Africa and the Middle East, stand a marginally improved chance of being acknowledged as one of the "big five" ITTL, but not by much. Ethiopia would at that stage be the chief occupier of several formerly Central Powers' territories, and would attempt to lay claim to at least a few of them, probably primarily in East Africa and along the North-East coast of the Red Sea. They'd be massively invested in the inclusion of the Racial Equality Clause in the League of Nations' covenant, far more so than the Japanese delegation who proposed it, and they'd be immensely angered at it being thwarted by the Australians, South Africans and British. And even more so than the Japanese, they'd have the door slammed in their faces, and all of those German and Ottoman overseas possessions they'd liberated and occupied stripped away from them, to be awarded as "mandates" to the British Empire, France and quite possibly Italy instead.

For Ethiopia, this would have an immediate impact, driving them away from cooperation with the West and toward more nationalistic policies (such as Pan-Africanism) even more than it did the Japanese. And it'd definitely cement their alignment with the Japanese. Along with cementing Japan's (fairly ironic) perceived status as the world's primary proponent of racial equality, and probably setting into motion a feedback loop which would make TTL's post-WW1 'Yellow Peril' in the African, Middle-Eastern and even Indian colonies even worse than the Red Scare IOTL, and far longer lasting; and which, in turn, would make Ethiopia's Pan-African ideology increasingly nationalistic, militaristic and fascist in nature as well. How would this Japanese-Ethiopian alliance end? Most likely, with the Stresa Front forged with the threats posed by both Germany in Europe and the Japanese-led Co-Prosperity Sphere's expansion beyond East Asia into East Africa, via their alliance with the Ethiopians, in mind. And with both the British and French either maintaining their neutrality, or joining in with Mussolini, in invading Ethiopia.

If it's the latter, barring a miracle (or plot-induced suicidal tendencies), the Japanese only put up a token resistance, and the greatly improved Ethiopia still gets rolled over ITTL, partitioned between the three Colonial Powers, thereby becoming a martyr for the Japanese cause and enabling them to drum up far greater support from those advocating independence from the Western Colonial Powers; but if it's the former, and Ethiopia has grown powerful and influential enough by this stage, and manages to repel the initial Italian invasion force, then it might not only be the Japanese who rally to their side, and join them in declaring war against Italy. IOTL, Hitler's Nazi Germany was the only nation to provide the Ethiopians with material support in the 2nd Italo-Ethiopian War. ITTL, with the Spanish Civil War yet to get under way, mightn't he potentially join in to an even greater extent, sending the Condor Legion over to fight on the Ethiopians' side? And if so, couldn't such a conflict have had the potential to kick off an alternate, earlier WW2...?
 
With a POD this early, and Ethiopia on the side of the Entente as an active participant in WW1, plenty of stuff's still up for grabs. For instance, an Entente Ethiopia's going to be kept fairly busy, as an active counterweight to both the Ottomans and German East Africa. They're not going to be deployed to Europe- even precluding racism, there's not a chance in hell of that happening, and at that early stage in their divergence from OTL, they'd only get slaughtered anyway. But they would have a very, very good chance of being relatively successful- with Ethiopian manpower on the Entente's side (fighting alongside the Black South African, Indian, and other colonial troops which were considered unsuitable for European service as a matter of racial supremacist policy- who may or may not be more inclined to consider themselves more closely aligned with the Ethiopians instead as a result), it could easily swing the tide in their favor, and force the German colonial forces into surrender, leading to an Allied victory in East African Campaign by 1917. And of course, by then, the Ottoman Empire's already been torn apart by the Arab Revolt of 1916, leaving the Ethiopians (and their Japanese allies and observers) in the perfect position to capitalize and run rampant on the Middle Eastern front.

Only for them to then almost inevitably get treated in the same manner to the Japanese at the Paris Peace Conference, when the Ethiopians send their own delegation there. Course, the Japanese would, courtesy of their greater clout and influence in East Africa and the Middle East, stand a marginally improved chance of being acknowledged as one of the "big five" ITTL, but not by much. Ethiopia would at that stage be the chief occupier of several formerly Central Powers' territories, and would attempt to lay claim to at least a few of them, probably primarily in East Africa and along the North-East coast of the Red Sea. They'd be massively invested in the inclusion of the Racial Equality Clause in the League of Nations' covenant, far more so than the Japanese delegation who proposed it, and they'd be immensely angered at it being thwarted by the Australians, South Africans and British. And even more so than the Japanese, they'd have the door slammed in their faces, and all of those German and Ottoman overseas possessions they'd liberated and occupied stripped away from them, to be awarded as "mandates" to the British Empire, France and quite possibly Italy instead.
You summed up what I was thinking better than I could ever word it! Although, you don't think there'd be some Ethiopian detachments in Europe - I was thinking the Salonika Front but I wasn't completely sure about that so Ethiopian forces might be more concentrated in Eastern Africa and the Middle East. Regarding claims to formerly Central Power territories, the only one I can see Ethiopia wanting to claim is Yemen (as apart of potentially re-establishing the Axumite Empire) - would the Entente refuse to cede Ethiopia even this?
 
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In terms of fighting experience, I think Ethiopia would be like Siam in OTL. Siam (Thailand) send an EF to France and gained some fighting experience from doing so., but they didn't have a modernized army. Ethiopia would probably have some decent or mediocre industry, due to Japanese investment, but that would only occur between 1918-1929, and after the great depression through the late 1930s. assuming that Italy invades Ethiopia, they would probably win, even with Japanese advisors and equipment. Because even though the Ethiopian Army would have modern equipment, a large part of it would still have out of date rifles, and even spears, because she doesn't have the industry to produce that much, considering that Japanese investment would be in small time frames. Japanese equipment was also mediocre, much like Italian equipment. Casualties would be lower for the Ethiopians and higher for the Italians though, but that's if Italy was to invade (which they probably wouldn't).
 
due to Japanese investment, but that would only occur between 1918-1929,

So where are these Japanese Dollars coming from, especially after the Great Kanto Earthquake?
Before that, Japanese Investment was in Japan, and what they got from the before and after the Boxer Rebellion and the Russian War

They don't have the extra money
 
So where are these Japanese Dollars coming from, especially after the Great Kanto Earthquake?
Before that, Japanese Investment was in Japan, and what they got from the before and after the Boxer Rebellion and the Russian War

They don't have the extra money
Well, that's assuming that they do have that extra money, which they don't.
 
Now, a timeline like this can split in 2:
1: Italy invades Ethiopia (very unlikely)
2: Italy leaves Ethiopia alone

Let's start with 1 first because it's more fun and is a GIANT change in world history. Japan would probably break relations with the Italians and refuse to sign the tripartite pact. Hitler probably wouldn't give jack about Asia, and Italy is Germany's only major ally. America would declare war on Japan cus of Pearl Habor and their surprise attack into the Philipines (They wouldn't attack Malaya and the Dutch East Indies, as they would be helping someone who is allied to their de facto enemy). However, Hitler doesn't declare war on America, because Japan isn't allied to them. The War in the Pacific would probably result in a Sino-American victory, and the war would last maybe until 1944 or early 1945 (US doesn't have to focus so much into Europe). The war in Europe may lead to a German victory, with some puppets in Ukraine, the Baltics, the Caucasus, and Belorussia. USSR wouldn't have the lend-lease like in OTL, and Britain couldn't possibly win a war on their own against Germany.

2 is just like OTL, though Ethiopia isn't stupid and doesn't declare war on the allies, so there is no British invasion of Ethiopia.
 
In terms of fighting experience, I think Ethiopia would be like Siam in OTL. Siam (Thailand) send an EF to France and gained some fighting experience from doing so., but they didn't have a modernized army. Ethiopia would probably have some decent or mediocre industry, due to Japanese investment, but that would only occur between 1918-1929, and after the great depression through the late 1930s. assuming that Italy invades Ethiopia, they would probably win, even with Japanese advisors and equipment. Because even though the Ethiopian Army would have modern equipment, a large part of it would still have out of date rifles, and even spears, because she doesn't have the industry to produce that much, considering that Japanese investment would be in small time frames. Japanese equipment was also mediocre, much like Italian equipment. Casualties would be lower for the Ethiopians and higher for the Italians though, but that's if Italy was to invade (which they probably wouldn't).
Even with a modernized military, Ethiopia still loses the Second Italo-Ethiopian War (if it comes along)? How much better is Japanese equipment in comparison to Italian arms?
 
I never said that Ethiopia would win the war (if Italy invaded, which they most likely wouldn't), just that it would be harder for the Italians because certain Ethiopian units are equipped with Japanese equipment (at most it'd be 5%, though most likely 2.5% or lower.), which is only a little bit better then Italian ones
Also, I was saying that the war would go the same, just with no British invasion of Ethiopia (Ethiopia isn't owned by the Italians in the timeline)
 
I never said that Ethiopia would win the war (if Italy invaded, which they most likely wouldn't), just that it would be harder for the Italians because certain Ethiopian units are equipped with Japanese equipment (at most it'd be 5%, though most likely 2.5% or lower.), which is only a little bit better then Italian ones
Also, I was saying that the war would go the same, just with no British invasion of Ethiopia (Ethiopia isn't owned by the Italians in the timeline)
With a POD in the 20s, I'm pretty sure that Japanese equipment could become standardized and the Imperial Ethiopian Army would be much more well-equipped than their counterparts IOTL.
 
It's a low bar, since much of it pretty much was a feudal militia
Is no one paying attention to the POD? Ethiopia enters World War 1 on the side of the Entente in 1916, sending forces to the Middle East and German East Africa where these detachments undergo training under Entente advisors for combat.
 
Is no one paying attention to the POD? Ethiopia enters World War 1 on the side of the Entente in 1916, sending forces to the Middle East and German East Africa where these detachments undergo training under Entente advisors for combat.

Doesn't change that the country cannot support a modern military without a huge expensive amount of investment, that I don't foresee without huge ASB wings flapping. All the gear, all the bullets and beans, would have had to been donated by the Allied Powers, since there was no way Ethiopia could support a modern (WWI) Army. Otherwise, all the Ethiopians would be good for was Coolie Labor, and the British and French already had plenty of that, no matter how brave or how badly they wanted to fight.

Even if equipped, by 1935, it would be down to a Palace Guard, because keeping a good sized modern army equipped is very expensive, and Ethiopia just doesn't have the economy for that.

Fighting in WWI will not change this
 
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