WI: Japanese-Ethiopian alliance in the 20s and 30s?

nbcman

Donor
They don't need to match the Italian navy. The need to either drive odd, neutralise or deter the proportion of the Italian navy dispatched against them. Hence a coastal/defensive navy with submarines, torpedo boats, minelayers et cetera would be effective.
OK. The RM had at least 60 Destroyers which they could dispatch to the Red Sea not to mention numerous other vessels. How many vessels can poor Ethiopia support that can contend with a fraction of that? And even if they could put a handful of Japanese built vessels into the water, how is that going to help either Japan or Ethiopia by creating another potentially unfriendly navy astride the British sea lanes in the Red Sea?
Ethiopia also has gold. Perhaps the Asosa zone fold deposits are found a century earlier?
Then the UK or France would have taken them as a colony as opposed to leaving them for the Italians to try to grab them in the late 1800s.
 
OK. The RM had at least 60 Destroyers which they could dispatch to the Red Sea not to mention numerous other vessels. How many vessels can poor Ethiopia support that can contend with a fraction of that? And even if they could put a handful of Japanese built vessels into the water, how is that going to help either Japan or Ethiopia by creating another potentially unfriendly navy astride the British sea lanes in the Red Sea?
43 in total I believe.
Of which only, at most, ten might be available for service against Ethiopia. The others will be engaged on other duties (closer to home), undergoing refit/refurb/repair et cetera.
Given a reasonable Ethiopian force of coastal subs and MTBs the Italians will have significant problems.
 

nbcman

Donor
43 in total I believe.
Of which only, at most, ten might be available for service against Ethiopia. The others will be engaged on other duties (closer to home), undergoing refit/refurb/repair et cetera.
Given a reasonable Ethiopian force of coastal subs and MTBs the Italians will have significant problems.
I'm counting at least 57 DDs that were completed by the end of 1934 - 6 of which were reclassed as torpedo boats in the late 1920s. But still more than 50. And I think that they could support more than 10 DDs since the Red Sea Flotilla had 7 DDs plus other vessels based out of Massawa.

But posters haven't answered the question on how the Ethiopians with an economy one tenth or less of Italy (my guess is less than 5% since Ethiopia in 2017 has an GDP of 4.2% of Italy; but note that Ethiopia had 10+% annual GDP growth from 2005 - 2015) were going to pay for a force of coastal subs and MTBs. If you suggest Japan would help, why would Japan risk annoying the UK by funding an Ethiopian Navy thousands of kms away from where their interests lay in East Asia?
 
Italy would blockade the Somaliland cutting off Ethiopia from Arms and any other support at which point its a bloodier version of otl.
Which could draw in the Japanese Navy against Italy in the Indian Ocean. Potentially leading to Japan siding with Britain following the Italian declaration of war in 1940. If the Italo-Japanese confrontation could last that long.
 

nbcman

Donor
Which could draw in the Japanese Navy against Italy in the Indian Ocean. Potentially leading to Japan siding with Britain following the Italian declaration of war in 1940. If the Italo-Japanese confrontation could last that long.
The British would have to be involved to permit Japanese refueling since it is over 8000 kms sailing distance from Taiwan to Somalia. Otherwise, the Japanese fleet doesn't have the legs to enter the IO.
 
There are Chromium and Nickel deposits much closer to Japan, like China and Philippines.
In the '30s, there wasn't much mining going on in Ethiopia
Earlier mining in Ethiopia could happen if the Ethiopian government conducts some kind of sweep to examine what potential resources it could export to Japan as apart of this Japanese-Ethiopian Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.
 
The British would have to be involved to permit Japanese refueling since it is over 8000 kms sailing distance from Taiwan to Somalia. Otherwise, the Japanese fleet doesn't have the legs to enter the IO.
Ethiopia annexes British Somaliland so perhaps the Japanese can be given basing rights as apart of a potential J-E Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (in creating an Ethiopian Navy)? London could see Japanese use of Zeila and a Japanese Military Mission to Ethiopia as a sort of compensation in regards to the non-renewable Anglo-Japanese accords.
 
I'm counting at least 57 DDs that were completed by the end of 1934 - 6 of which were reclassed as torpedo boats in the late 1920s. But still more than 50. And I think that they could support more than 10 DDs since the Red Sea Flotilla had 7 DDs plus other vessels based out of Massawa.
8 Turbine-class
4 Sauro-class
2 Sella-class
3 Leone-class
2 Mirabello
4 Freccia
4 Folgore
4 Maestrale
12 Navigatori-class
43

Not all ships supposedly available are actually available for immediate service. Many will be undergoing maintenance (routine or responsive), refitting, engaged in other duties or positioned to face other threats, real and perceived.

But posters haven't answered the question on how the Ethiopians with an economy one tenth or less of Italy (my guess is less than 5% since Ethiopia in 2017 has an GDP of 4.2% of Italy; but note that Ethiopia had 10+% annual GDP growth from 2005 - 2015) were going to pay for a force of coastal subs and MTBs. If you suggest Japan would help, why would Japan risk annoying the UK by funding an Ethiopian Navy thousands of kms away from where their interests lay in East Asia?
A small coastal submarine of around 250 tonnes would have cost around Stg£100,000 (the German Type VV was around Stg£300k). A small torpedo boat would have cost £60 to 80k, a larger one around £300k. Not impossible to afford.
Even a 'mini-monitor' with four 8" guns would be a possibility (around half-a-million Sterling).

Prices are based on the RTN procurements of the late 1930s.
 

nbcman

Donor
Earlier mining in Ethiopia could happen if the Ethiopian government conducts some kind of sweep to examine what potential resources it could export to Japan as apart of this Japanese-Ethiopian Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

You keep using the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as an example. I do not think it means what you think it means.

Text of the Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact
The Government of the German Reich and The Government of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics desirous of strengthening the cause of peace between Germany and the U.S.S.R., and proceeding from the fundamental provisions of the Neutrality Agreement concluded in April, 1926 between Germany and the U.S.S.R., have reached the following Agreement:
Article I. Both High Contracting Parties obligate themselves to desist from any act of violence, any aggressive action, and any attack on each other, either individually or jointly with other Powers. Article II. Should one of the High Contracting Parties become the object of belligerent action by a third Power, the other High Contracting Party shall in no manner lend its support to this third Power. Article III. The Governments of the two High Contracting Parties shall in the future maintain continual contact with one another for the purpose of consultation in order to exchange information on problems affecting their common interests. Article IV. Should disputes or conflicts arise between the High Contracting Parties shall participate in any grouping of Powers whatsoever that is directly or indirectly aimed at the other party. Article V. Should disputes or conflicts arise between the High Contracting Parties over problems of one kind or another, both parties shall settle these disputes or conflicts exclusively through friendly exchange of opinion or, if necessary, through the establishment of arbitration commissions. Article VI. The present Treaty is concluded for a period of ten years, with the proviso that, in so far as one of the High Contracting Parties does not advance it one year prior to the expiration of this period, the validity of this Treaty shall automatically be extended for another five years. Article VII. The present treaty shall be ratified within the shortest possible time. The ratifications shall be exchanged in Berlin. The Agreement shall enter into force as soon as it is signed.
[The section below was not published at the time the above was announced.] Secret Additional Protocol. Article I. In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement in the areas belonging to the Baltic States (Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), the northern boundary of Lithuania shall represent the boundary of the spheres of influence of Germany and U.S.S.R. In this connection the interest of Lithuania in the Vilna area is recognized by each party. Article II. In the event of a territorial and political rearrangement of the areas belonging to the Polish state, the spheres of influence of Germany and the U.S.S.R. shall be bounded approximately by the line of the rivers Narev, Vistula and San. The question of whether the interests of both parties make desirable the maintenance of an independent Polish States and how such a state should be bounded can only be definitely determined in the course of further political developments. In any event both Governments will resolve this question by means of a friendly agreement. Article III. With regard to Southeastern Europe attention is called by the Soviet side to its interest in Bessarabia. The German side declares its complete political disinteredness in these areas. Article IV. This protocol shall be treated by both parties as strictly secret.
Moscow, August 23, 1939.
For the Government of the German Reich v. Ribbentrop Plenipotentiary of the Government of the U.S.S.R. V. Molotov

There is no economic assistance or trade agreements in the M-R Pact. Nor is there any guarantee to come to the aid of the other power if they are attacked, only that they will not lend support if the other power is attacked by a Third power.
 
You keep using the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact as an example. I do not think it means what you think it means.

There is no economic assistance or trade agreements in the M-R Pact. Nor is there any guarantee to come to the aid of the other power if they are attacked, only that they will not lend support if the other power is attacked by a Third power.
I can't think of any other example to describe a Japanese-Ethiopian-style "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" so I'm using that a loose example.
 

nbcman

Donor
8 Turbine-class
4 Sauro-class
2 Sella-class
3 Leone-class
2 Mirabello
4 Freccia
4 Folgore
4 Maestrale
12 Navigatori-class
43

Not all ships supposedly available are actually available for immediate service. Many will be undergoing maintenance (routine or responsive), refitting, engaged in other duties or positioned to face other threats, real and perceived.


A small coastal submarine of around 250 tonnes would have cost around Stg£100,000 (the German Type VV was around Stg£300k). A small torpedo boat would have cost £60 to 80k, a larger one around £300k. Not impossible to afford.
Even a 'mini-monitor' with four 8" guns would be a possibility (around half-a-million Sterling).

Prices are based on the RTN procurements of the late 1930s.

Italy had an GDP per capita in 1930 of about 2500 USD (1990). This translates to about 65 Sterling per capita in 1930. Their population was about 41 million in 1930. This means the total Italian GDP was around 2665 million Sterling. Italy spent about 4% of their total GDP on their military in 1930 so that brings Italy's military budget to 106.6 million Sterling. If Ethiopia has an economy that is about 4% of Italy's and is willing to spend the same percentage on their military when most other countries were spending 1% or less, Ethiopia has at most 4.3 million sterling to spend. However, Ethiopia didn't spend anything close to that figure since they entered the war in 1936 still using ridiculously obsolete equipment for their military. So where would the millions of sterling come to develop a port (from virtually nothing), train sailors (from nothing) and buy just a handful of ships (from nothing) come from?

I can't think of any other example to describe a Japanese-Ethiopian-style "Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact" so I'm using that a loose example.

Than what type of pact are you considering? Economic assistance and trade? Mutual defense and military assistance?
 
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I'm thinking a Japanese-trained Ethiopian Navy could match the Italians' but I can't claim to know much on whether or not the Italian or Japanese Navy was superior.
I think reflagged IJN is the only way to go, I would suggest AMC that could be "sold" commercially as the WNT would ban the sale of any old warships.

Italy was the #4 navy in the world. There is no way the Ethiopians can match it coming from zero in 1920 - let alone to be able to afford all those vessels and to crew them. Edit: their only hope is for the British to block the Italian Navy from passing thru the Suez Canal.
Actually joint 4/5 and IJN is 3rd so it might be able to deploy more than them.

Unlikely. Main problem is what Japanese were reliant for refueling in foreign (mostly British) ports to reach Africa before first long-range transports were made in 1936. With such problem, Japanese were losing any earlier conflict in Africa automatically - because of British objections severing supply line.
I think this works with selling a couple of large converted AMC tanker that could range to hunt Italian shipping. That or a small Japanese CA squadron say two ships with a couple or more of tankers to support them? Even a couple of 8" ships would make RMs life hard as it would not want to deploy the main fleet beyond Suez due to the threat of GB cutting them off if tensions rise.

Ethiopia annexes British Somaliland so perhaps the Japanese can be given basing rights as apart of a potential J-E Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact (in creating an Ethiopian Navy)? London could see Japanese use of Zeila and a Japanese Military Mission to Ethiopia as a sort of compensation in regards to the non-renewable Anglo-Japanese accords.
I think the idea that GB/RN would like to invite the IJN into the Indian ocean that early on is very suspect....to put it mildly.
 
I think the idea that GB/RN would like to invite the IJN into the Indian ocean that early on is very suspect....to put it mildly.
I'm not sure about this either - if this does happen, the RN would be able to crush the IJN easily if it decided to go after European colonies along the Red Sea.
 
Italy had an GDP per capita in 1930 of about 2500 USD (1990). This translates to about 65 Sterling per capita in 1930. Their population was about 41 million in 1930. This means the total Italian GDP was around 2665 million Sterling. Italy spent about 4% of their total GDP on their military in 1930 so that brings Italy's military budget to 106.6 million Sterling. If Ethiopia has an economy that is about 4% of Italy's and is willing to spend the same percentage on their military when most other countries were spending 1% or less, Ethiopia has at most 4.3 million sterling to spend. However, Ethiopia didn't spend anything close to that figure since they entered the war in 1936 still using ridiculously obsolete equipment for their military. So where would the millions of sterling come to develop a port (from virtually nothing), train sailors (from nothing) and buy just a handful of ships (from nothing) come from?

Than what type of pact are you considering? Economic assistance and trade? Mutual defense and military assistance?
I brought up the idea of Ethiopia utilizing Russian naval officers to staff a potential Ethiopian Navy and then train the sailors necessary for such a force - could that work?

I was considering a combination of economic cooperation, trade and military assistance.
 
I brought up the idea of Ethiopia utilizing Russian naval officers to staff a potential Ethiopian Navy and then train the sailors necessary for such a force - could that work?
Why Russian? They are not really a very good navy and would Japanese on unofficial temporary secondment not be better as they could be supplied free and would work for the potential none European anti colonialism ideology?
 
Why Russian? They are not really a very good navy and would Japanese on unofficial temporary secondment not be better as they could be supplied free and would work for the potential none European anti colonialism ideology?
Having experienced Russian veterans is better than nothing for the Ethiopian Navy and considering Ethiopia has chosen to take in these refugees in the aftermath of ww1 and during the Russian Civil War, I think they might be eager to assist their fellow Orthodox brethren.
 
Having experienced Russian veterans is better than nothing for the Ethiopian Navy and considering Ethiopia has chosen to take in these refugees in the aftermath of ww1 and during the Russian Civil War, I think they might be eager to assist their fellow Orthodox brethren.
If we are allowed an early POD what about having Wrangel's Fleet or part of it go to Ethiopia?

The best part might be some submarines, say a few AG class but that would be hard to keep working without lots of Japanese support?
 

nbcman

Donor
If we are allowed an early POD what about having Wrangel's Fleet or part of it go to Ethiopia?

The best part might be some submarines, say a few AG class but that would be hard to keep working without lots of Japanese support?
I like that POD but there would be an impact to French-Soviet relations since the Soviets were awarded ownership of the Fleet in 1924. Maybe someone pays the equivalent price as the Soviets got for scrapping the ships that get handed over to the Ethiopians?
 
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