WI: Japanese-Ethiopian alliance in the 20s and 30s?

Ethiopian Navy was plainly impossible until approximately 1925, due problems with transportation from inland (which is a must to build ports). Roads must be built first. In practice, Ethiopian can hope at best case for torpedo boats and may be some obsolete Japanese destroyers by 1935. In particular, Ethiopia may hope to buy some of Harusame-class destroyers which Japanese scrapped in 1924-1926 IOTL.

As i understand, H.S. I ascension from regent to emperor was a formality. He had enough of absolutist power from 1916 already to enact severe reforms, and i see no significant speedup in reforms after 1930 IOTL.
You might be right about this.

With a professional well-trained and well-equipped army under his command, HS could've instituted more radical reforms without the nobility being able to resist. The reason reforms came so slowly was due to Haile Selassie's careful maneuvering to prevent himself from being removed by the influential reactionary nobility - I would say HS would be able to implement more reforms and faster with an army that could destroy the nobility's own armies and either force the nobles to submit or get rid of them.
 

trurle

Banned
As far as later impacts go, WWII specifically (assuming it at least begins in a similar fashion as IOTL) could be interesting in terms of the Japanese and Italians' conflict of interest. I don't know if Ethiopia be enough to keep these two sides from uniting into the Axis, but I think it could be. Might we see a more aggressive Japanese presence in Africa generally? Driving out the colonial powers, or at least hampering their forces to some degree and encouraging rebellion of the natives. That goes nicely with a sort of Ethiopian-driven Pan-Africanism, assuming the Japanese prove to be benevolent rulers (or occupiers) which is...dicey at best. Obviously if they dig into Africa, however, they may not have the resources to fight the US at the same time, so could that divert Pearl Harbor?
Unlikely. Main problem is what Japanese were reliant for refueling in foreign (mostly British) ports to reach Africa before first long-range transports were made in 1936. With such problem, Japanese were losing any earlier conflict in Africa automatically - because of British objections severing supply line.
 

nbcman

Donor
What if Ethiopia utilized naval officers from the former Imperial Russian and White Armies? I was thinking that Ethiopia could take in White Russian refugees in the aftermath of World War 1 in order to not only boost her international position and save fellow Orthodox Christians but to utilize all that experienced manpower in modernization. Regarding the Ethiopian Navy, how badly would it lose during this alt-Second Italo-Ethiopian War?
Ethiopian was a feudal and primarily subsistence farming country. They couldn’t afford even a few military vessels let alone enough to seriously contend with the Italians. It is impossible for the 1930 Ethiopian economy to be able to support a serious military force. A navy would be an utter waste of scarce Ethiopian resources.
 
Ethiopian was a feudal and primarily subsistence farming country. They couldn’t afford even a few military vessels let alone enough to seriously contend with the Italians. It is impossible for the 1930 Ethiopian economy to be able to support a serious military force. A navy would be an utter waste of scarce Ethiopian resources.
Do you think an earlier and more successful Ethiopian modernization would do nothing for the country?
 

nbcman

Donor
Do you think an earlier and more successful Ethiopian modernization would do nothing for the country?
That’s not what I said. Even with a significant improvement in Ethiopia’s economy, they are too far behind Italy in the early 1900s to catch up to naval parity by the mid 1930s. They may put up a few more torpedo boats or destroyers but they can’t get to a large enough economy to support multiple capital ships like Battleships and Cruisers.
 
That’s not what I said. Even with a significant improvement in Ethiopia’s economy, they are too far behind Italy in the early 1900s to catch up to naval parity by the mid 1930s.
What else would you recommend that Ethiopia should focus on for a naval strategy?
 
I had a alliance in my timeline where Japanese troops aided Ethiopia in a war with Italy. They even manned an amphibious assault on Somalia.
 

nbcman

Donor
How could this happen?
Ethiopia can’t make it happen. An over aggressive Italy in the late 1920s or early 1930s would spook France and Britain which could lead them to want to block additional Italian adventurism. Clearly Ethiopia is on better terms with Britain since the OP had them handing over their Somali territory to Ethiopia.
 
Ethiopia can’t make it happen. An over aggressive Italy in the late 1920s or early 1930s would spook France and Britain which could lead them to want to block additional Italian adventurism. Clearly Ethiopia is on better terms with Britain since the OP had them handing over their Somali territory to Ethiopia.
Perhaps more Italian aggression in Albania and/or Yugoslavia?
 
Or Italians will not risk the conquest at all. May be Albania will look better risk-payoff investment for Mussolini if Ethiopian army will be significantly improved by Japanese. IOTL, the Italy nearly went to war in Albania in 1934.
Of course, sheer distance will mean only small trade and minimal assistance from Japan will be available.

Equipping Ethiopians won't be cheap.
As is frequently pointed out, what do the Japanese give up to make this happen? Arming them over military forces to China will be a hard sell to many. Is it worth risking assassination?
 
Equipping Ethiopians won't be cheap.
As is frequently pointed out, what do the Japanese give up to make this happen? Arming them over trying to take over China will be a hard sell to many. Is it worth risking assassination?
Perhaps a Japanese-Ethiopian Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact where Japan receives raw materials from Ethiopia and Ethiopia receives Japanese assistance in modernization?
 

trurle

Banned
Perhaps a Japanese-Ethiopian Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact where Japan receives raw materials from Ethiopia and Ethiopia receives Japanese assistance in modernization?
Ethiopia have the following ores rare in Japan:
Chromite (Cr)
Millerite (Ni)


IOTL, Japanese has difficulty supplying enough of Cr and Ni for high-alloy steels from domestic resources - Ethiopian export may be handy.
 
Ethiopia have the following ores rare in Japan:
Chromite (Cr)
Millerite (Ni)

IOTL, Japanese has difficulty supplying enough of Cr and Ni for high-alloy steels from domestic resources - Ethiopian export may be handy.
Meanwhile, Ethiopia could utilize Japanese military advisors to properly modernize her military and Japanese investment could allow for added revenues that go towards modernization. Is there anything else?
 
Ethiopia have the following ores rare in Japan:
Chromite (Cr)
Millerite (Ni)


IOTL, Japanese has difficulty supplying enough of Cr and Ni for high-alloy steels from domestic resources - Ethiopian export may be handy.

There are Chromium and Nickel deposits much closer to Japan, like China and Philippines.
In the '30s, there wasn't much mining going on in Ethiopia
 
Last edited:

trurle

Banned
There are Chromium and Nickel deposits much closer to Japan, like China and Philippines.
In the '30s, there wasn't much mining going on in Ethiopia
Of course. The problem was actually not with the mines itself, but with willingness to sell the ore. US (who had Philippines at time) was since start of 20th century net importer of nickel and chromium, Classical problem - industrialized countries need more alloying elements than they can mine on their own territory. And after 1932 China was not selling to Japan at all.
 
Italy was the #4 navy in the world. There is no way the Ethiopians can match it coming from zero in 1920 - let alone to be able to afford all those vessels and to crew them. Edit: their only hope is for the British to block the Italian Navy from passing thru the Suez Canal.
They don't need to match the Italian navy. The need to either drive odd, neutralise or deter the proportion of the Italian navy dispatched against them. Hence a coastal/defensive navy with submarines, torpedo boats, minelayers et cetera would be effective.
 
Of course. The problem was actually not with the mines itself, but with willingness to sell the ore. US (who had Philippines at time) was since start of 20th century net importer of nickel and chromium, Classical problem - industrialized countries need more alloying elements than they can mine on their own territory. And after 1932 China was not selling to Japan at all.
Ethiopia also has gold. Perhaps the Asosa zone fold deposits are found a century earlier?
 
Top