WI: Japanese-Ethiopian alliance in the 20s and 30s?

I was talking with @Oldbill and reading through AH's Japanese-Ethiopian alliance threads when I came up with the potential TL idea of a Japanese-Ethiopian alliance being established during or after ww1. The POD is Ethiopia joining the Entente in 1916, following the Battle of Segale where Ras Tafari enters into talks with the Entente. London is willing to cede British Somaliland to Ethiopia in exchange for Ethiopia sending men to reinforce Allied forces in the Middle East and/or the Western Front. Tafari manages to pressure Empress Zewditu into declaring war on the CP in favor of the Russian Empire, a fellow Orthodox Christian ally. World War 1 goes largely as IOTL, except Ethiopian forces are serving in the Middle East and even on the Western Front where they're attached to the French Army. In 1918, Empress Zewditu dies from the 1918 flu pandemic and this allows for Ras Tafari to become Emperor of Ethiopia. In 1919, an Ethiopian delegation attends the Paris Peace Conference where they receive a small portion of financial reparations from the CP and its delegation meets with the Japanese one. Hearing of Ethiopia's victory against Italy in 1896, Tokyo seems interested in the possibility of a Japanese-Ethiopian alliance. Tokyo and Addis Ababa manage to cement their relationship through the conclusion of a pact and the marriage of Amha Selassie to a Japanese princess in the 20s and 30s.

What happens next? How could this potential Japanese-Ethiopian alliance end? What else could happen?
 
It wouldn't change anything expect maybe a bloodier Italian conquest due Japanese arms some advisers
Apart of my POD is Ethiopia entering World War 1 on the side of the Entente, receiving professional training and an influx of new military equipment to arm an Ethiopian Expeditionary Force serving in either the Middle East or Europe. Depending on how large it is, the EEF is going to make up the nucleus of a new professional Ethiopian Army under an earlier Haile Selassie and receives additional training under a Japanese Military Mission in the 20s and 30s. This means that Ethiopia could defeat the Italians if such an invasion comes along similarly to OTL - why do you think mostly nothing would change?
 

trurle

Banned
It wouldn't change anything expect maybe a bloodier Italian conquest due Japanese arms some advisers
Or Italians will not risk the conquest at all. May be Albania will look better risk-payoff investment for Mussolini if Ethiopian army will be significantly improved by Japanese. IOTL, the Italy nearly went to war in Albania in 1934.
Of course, sheer distance will mean only small trade and minimal assistance from Japan will be available.
 
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This means that Ethiopia could defeat the Italians if such an invasion comes along similarly to OTL - why do you think mostly nothing would change?
Italy would blockade the Somaliland cutting off Ethiopia from Arms and any other support at which point its a bloodier version of otl.
 
Italy would blockade the Somaliland cutting off Ethiopia from Arms and any other support at which point its a bloodier version of otl.
Even if Ethiopia is cut off from any arms support, this Japanese-trained Ethiopian Army (alongside an Ethiopian Navy and Air Force) could drive the Italians back into their adjacent colonies with some alt-Christmas Offensive. Not to mention, Ethiopia could be industrialized at this point after having concluded an alliance with Tokyo early on and be able of producing her own arms by the time the Italian invasion comes around.
 
Even if Ethiopia is cut off from any arms support, this Japanese-trained Ethiopian Army (alongside an Ethiopian Navy and Air Force) could drive the Italians back into their adjacent colonies with some alt-Christmas Offensive.
Unless Ethiopia can drive them into the sea, Italy will just send more men

Not to mention, Ethiopia could be industrialized at this point after having concluded an alliance with Tokyo early on and be able of producing her own arms by the time the Italian invasion comes around.
Do they have the national resources to produce their own Arms, Gunpowder, and heavy weapons ?
 
Unless Ethiopia can drive them into the sea, Italy will just send more men

Do they have the national resources to produce their own Arms, Gunpowder, and heavy weapons ?
I'm thinking a Japanese-trained Ethiopian Navy could match the Italians' but I can't claim to know much on whether or not the Italian or Japanese Navy was superior.

I believe so - there's also the fact that Ethiopia has access to a huge stockpile of equipment from the World War.
 

trurle

Banned
Do they have the national resources to produce their own Arms, Gunpowder, and heavy weapons ?
Technically yes, but i doubt the decision to industrialize will be easy. The mental atmosphere in Ethiopia during interbellum was "toxic" - grand delusions of imperial greatness combined with extreme poverty and several rifts in society preventing effective cooperation.
 
Technically yes, but i doubt the decision to industrialize will be easy. The mental atmosphere in Ethiopia during interbellum was "toxic" - grand delusions of imperial greatness combined with extreme poverty and several rifts in society preventing effective cooperation.
With an earlier Haile Selassie, that mindset and Ethiopia's general situation by the mid-30s are going to be much better than IOTL.
 

nbcman

Donor
I'm thinking a Japanese-trained Ethiopian Navy could match the Italians' but I can't claim to know much on whether or not the Italian or Japanese Navy was superior.

I believe so - there's also the fact that Ethiopia has access to a huge stockpile of equipment from the World War.
Italy was the #4 navy in the world. There is no way the Ethiopians can match it coming from zero in 1920 - let alone to be able to afford all those vessels and to crew them. Edit: their only hope is for the British to block the Italian Navy from passing thru the Suez Canal.
 
Italy was the #4 navy in the world. There is no way the Ethiopians can match it coming from zero in 1920 - let alone to be able to afford all those vessels and to crew them.
What if Ethiopia utilized naval officers from the former Imperial Russian and White Armies? I was thinking that Ethiopia could take in White Russian refugees in the aftermath of World War 1 in order to not only boost her international position and save fellow Orthodox Christians but to utilize all that experienced manpower in modernization. Regarding the Ethiopian Navy, how badly would it lose during this alt-Second Italo-Ethiopian War?
 
He was 24 y.o. when taking charge of Ethiopia in 1916. Not much room for improvement.
In this scenario, he becomes Emperor in 1918 (Zewditu dies during the 1918 flu pandemic) and that means there could be much room for improvement - at least, by Ethiopia's standards at the time. Do you think Ethiopia wouldn't be able to improve itself and modernize successfully with an earlier HS?
 

trurle

Banned
What if Ethiopia utilized naval officers from the former Imperial Russian and White Armies? I was thinking that Ethiopia could take in White Russian refugees in the aftermath of World War 1 in order to not only boost her international position and save fellow Orthodox Christians but to utilize all that experienced manpower in modernization. Regarding the Ethiopian Navy, how badly would it lose during this alt-Second Italo-Ethiopian War?
Ethiopian Navy was plainly impossible until approximately 1925, due problems with transportation from inland (which is a must to build ports). Roads must be built first. In practice, Ethiopian can hope at best case for torpedo boats and may be some obsolete Japanese destroyers by 1935. In particular, Ethiopia may hope to buy some of Harusame-class destroyers which Japanese scrapped in 1924-1926 IOTL.
In this scenario, he becomes Emperor in 1918 (Zewditu dies during the 1918 flu pandemic) and that means there could be much room for improvement - at least, by Ethiopia's standards at the time. Do you think Ethiopia wouldn't be able to improve itself and modernize successfully with an earlier HS?
As i understand, H.S. I ascension from regent to emperor was a formality. He had enough of absolutist power from 1916 already to enact severe reforms, and i see no significant speedup in reforms after 1930 IOTL.
 
As far as later impacts go, WWII specifically (assuming it at least begins in a similar fashion as IOTL) could be interesting in terms of the Japanese and Italians' conflict of interest. I don't know if Ethiopia would be enough to keep these two sides from uniting into the Axis, but I think it could be. Might we see a more aggressive Japanese presence in Africa generally? Driving out the colonial powers, or at least hampering their forces to some degree and encouraging rebellion of the natives. That goes nicely with a sort of Ethiopian-driven Pan-Africanism, assuming the Japanese prove to be benevolent rulers (or occupiers) which is...dicey at best. Obviously if they dig into Africa, however, they may not have the resources to fight the US at the same time, so could that divert Pearl Harbor?
 
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