WI: Japanese-American War in 1852?

Let's speculate that what if, instead of when Commodore Perry arrived in Japan in 1852, instead of cowing the the government into opening up, the fearful Japanese massacre him and most of his crew. An angered United States declares war.
How would the scenario play out? Could the Japanese hold the Americans back or tire them out enough to give up? If the Americans won, would they force massive concessions, or even try to make Japan a protectorate to secure Far East trade? How would this affect the impending civil war back home? Finally, how would the European powers react?
 
It would be a boring war. Given that it would take 9 months just to get an army across the Pacific, and most of the armies will probably be shipped around Cape Horn as well, it might just not be worth it to get in a war over this. If there was, the US would probably end up winning because of its technological advantages and sheer size. However, it would definitely be long and tiring for the US.

The only major gains from the war would probably be trade concessions. I doubt the US would be willing to maintain an expensive occupation force to get more concessions when they have the West to conquer.

The war would probably speed up the start of the Civil War, especially if it is long and bloody. The war's results, free trade in the Far East, will mostly benefit the North, and the taxes from the war will cause the South to scream bloody murder about "paying for the North's war".

As for Europe, my guess is that their response depends on the outcome and peace treaty of the war. If the US gets exclusive trade with Japan, then they will probably try to intervene and get Japan opened up for all trade. If that happens, then the US might unite against "damn foreigners interfering in our business". If the peace opens Japan up for everyone, then the European powers probably don't care.
 
It would be a boring war. Given that it would take 9 months just to get an army across the Pacific, and most of the armies will probably be shipped around Cape Horn as well, it might just not be worth it to get in a war over this. If there was, the US would probably end up winning because of its technological advantages and sheer size. However, it would definitely be long and tiring for the US.

The only major gains from the war would probably be trade concessions. I doubt the US would be willing to maintain an expensive occupation force to get more concessions when they have the West to conquer.

The war would probably speed up the start of the Civil War, especially if it is long and bloody. The war's results, free trade in the Far East, will mostly benefit the North, and the taxes from the war will cause the South to scream bloody murder about "paying for the North's war".

As for Europe, my guess is that their response depends on the outcome and peace treaty of the war. If the US gets exclusive trade with Japan, then they will probably try to intervene and get Japan opened up for all trade. If that happens, then the US might unite against "damn foreigners interfering in our business". If the peace opens Japan up for everyone, then the European powers probably don't care.
But what if (nd I'll be the first to admit this is implausible) America gets so caught up in their "white man's burden" that they decide to occupy at least parts of Japan as punishment? Sort of like the Phillippine War beofre it was?
 
But what if (nd I'll be the first to admit this is implausible) America gets so caught up in their "white man's burden" that they decide to occupy at least parts of Japan as punishment? Sort of like the Phillippine War beofre it was?

Then they have a base for trading with China, which could be lucrative in the future. This could also break US isolationism earlier, since we would have foreign commitments earlier.

However, it's extremely unlikely because of the distance of Japan and the fact that the South will not want to pay to support an expensive occupation that only benefits Northern merchants. Also, the US has to fight hostile Native Americans at the same time. The standing army of the period just wasn't big enough for all of these duties. We didn't have a large standing army until the Cold War OTL. Combined with the fact that the US was very isolationist at the time, and you have a problem.

The origins of the occupying force could also be a problem when the Civil War breaks out. What happens if the force is evenly split between North and South and fighting breaks out? Also, what happens if a certain Army colonel by the name of Robert E. Lee is assigned to the occupying forces? I suspect the Civil War will be much shorter, since the Regular Army will be spread more overseas, so less of it will be in a position to defect to the CSA.
 
I am just about certain there would be any sort of land invasion of Japan; most likely the US would just send a fleet to bombarded Japan's major port cities until the Japanese offered concessions and reparations. That was the standard 19th century response to non-Western nations getting "uppity" and the logistics of trying to invade Japan from the US with 1850's tech are rather horrifying to contemplate. Considering how vulnerable Japan would be to naval bombardment I doubt it would take much to get concessions out of them; the US being able to level every major city in Japan essentially unopposed would be rather intimidating.
 
I am just about certain there would be any sort of land invasion of Japan; most likely the US would just send a fleet to bombarded Japan's major port cities until the Japanese offered concessions and reparations. That was the standard 19th century response to non-Western nations getting "uppity" and the logistics of trying to invade Japan from the US with 1850's tech are rather horrifying to contemplate. Considering how vulnerable Japan would be to naval bombardment I doubt it would take much to get concessions out of them; the US being able to level every major city in Japan essentially unopposed would be rather intimidating.

In fact, there was a similar incident in the early 1860's where the British, in response to an incident where a British citizen was killed by (I think) samurai from Satsuma, bombarded several Satsuma fortresses and won key concessions. This was a contributing factor to the overthrow of the shogunate and the Meiji Restoration, IIRC.
 
In fact, there was a similar incident in the early 1860's where the British, in response to an incident where a British citizen was killed by (I think) samurai from Satsuma, bombarded several Satsuma fortresses and won key concessions. This was a contributing factor to the overthrow of the shogunate and the Meiji Restoration, IIRC.
Earlier Meiji Restoration?
 
If the Shogunate capitulated in the 1870's under pressure from modern arms, the same would happen, but would likely take a little longer (supposing that the Civil is still occuring, as if it does, the US would commit more troops to that, rather than to some far off war.)
 
Top