So here is the PoD I was thinking of: what if Saito Makoto survived the "Deplorable Incident in the Imperial Capital" (帝都不祥事件)? My thinking is that he is gravely wounded, but survives. He then uses his position as Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal to encourage Emperor Showa to use his influence against the rebels. This results in a much stronger response. The government issues a (rare) Imperial Rescript to all the imperial subjects, the gist of which is that the government are servants of the Emperor, and anyone who claims to strike against them in the name of patriotism is, in fact, committing treason.
The upshot of all this is that the worst of the militarists are removed from power, with several receiving long prison terms. This cools the ardor of the military's expansionist desires considerably, but not completely. There is no Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and no larger war with China. The Japanese merely build up their forces in Manchukuo, preparing to fight off a Soviet invasion. They even manage to rebuild a bit of their hard currency reserves selling light tanks and other war material to the Western Allies.
However, things change in 1940. France falls, changing the balance of power considerably. Germany, who knows that many in Japan despise the USSR, begins dropping hints that a war with the Soviets is coming. Britain, too, tries to court the Japanese to their side. Pressure rises in the military ranks again, as many are worried that Japan will "miss the bus", to use the phrase of the time. The government begins to feel that it is inevitable that they will be drawn into the war, and indeed it may aid stability within Japan.
What does Japan do next?
The upshot of all this is that the worst of the militarists are removed from power, with several receiving long prison terms. This cools the ardor of the military's expansionist desires considerably, but not completely. There is no Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and no larger war with China. The Japanese merely build up their forces in Manchukuo, preparing to fight off a Soviet invasion. They even manage to rebuild a bit of their hard currency reserves selling light tanks and other war material to the Western Allies.
However, things change in 1940. France falls, changing the balance of power considerably. Germany, who knows that many in Japan despise the USSR, begins dropping hints that a war with the Soviets is coming. Britain, too, tries to court the Japanese to their side. Pressure rises in the military ranks again, as many are worried that Japan will "miss the bus", to use the phrase of the time. The government begins to feel that it is inevitable that they will be drawn into the war, and indeed it may aid stability within Japan.
What does Japan do next?