WI: Japan with a free hand in 1940?

So here is the PoD I was thinking of: what if Saito Makoto survived the "Deplorable Incident in the Imperial Capital" (帝都不祥事件)? My thinking is that he is gravely wounded, but survives. He then uses his position as Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal to encourage Emperor Showa to use his influence against the rebels. This results in a much stronger response. The government issues a (rare) Imperial Rescript to all the imperial subjects, the gist of which is that the government are servants of the Emperor, and anyone who claims to strike against them in the name of patriotism is, in fact, committing treason.

The upshot of all this is that the worst of the militarists are removed from power, with several receiving long prison terms. This cools the ardor of the military's expansionist desires considerably, but not completely. There is no Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and no larger war with China. The Japanese merely build up their forces in Manchukuo, preparing to fight off a Soviet invasion. They even manage to rebuild a bit of their hard currency reserves selling light tanks and other war material to the Western Allies.

However, things change in 1940. France falls, changing the balance of power considerably. Germany, who knows that many in Japan despise the USSR, begins dropping hints that a war with the Soviets is coming. Britain, too, tries to court the Japanese to their side. Pressure rises in the military ranks again, as many are worried that Japan will "miss the bus", to use the phrase of the time. The government begins to feel that it is inevitable that they will be drawn into the war, and indeed it may aid stability within Japan.

What does Japan do next?
 
So here is the PoD I was thinking of: what if Saito Makoto survived the "Deplorable Incident in the Imperial Capital" (帝都不祥事件)? My thinking is that he is gravely wounded, but survives. He then uses his position as Lord Keeper of the Privy Seal to encourage Emperor Showa to use his influence against the rebels. This results in a much stronger response. The government issues a (rare) Imperial Rescript to all the imperial subjects, the gist of which is that the government are servants of the Emperor, and anyone who claims to strike against them in the name of patriotism is, in fact, committing treason.

The upshot of all this is that the worst of the militarists are removed from power, with several receiving long prison terms. This cools the ardor of the military's expansionist desires considerably, but not completely. There is no Marco Polo Bridge Incident, and no larger war with China. The Japanese merely build up their forces in Manchukuo, preparing to fight off a Soviet invasion. They even manage to rebuild a bit of their hard currency reserves selling light tanks and other war material to the Western Allies.
The problem is that by this point the Japanese had let the junior officers rule foreign policy. If they started trying to remove militarists from power, 1) the people proposing the policy would all/mostly be assassinated, and 2) a group of militarists would kidnap/take possession of the Emperor and have him rescind the decree.

I'm afraid that 1940 is WAY too late for Japan's policy to get sane.
 
The best chance that Japan is not involved in a Sino-Japanese war over 1937-40 is a different Xi'an Incident http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi'an_Incident. One possibility is that Chiang is killed and China falls into extensive civil war as suggested by Mike Ralls in his Ishiwara Option posted on soc.history.what-if in 2002 which is a good read.
 
The problem is that by this point the Japanese had let the junior officers rule foreign policy. If they started trying to remove militarists from power, 1) the people proposing the policy would all/mostly be assassinated, and 2) a group of militarists would kidnap/take possession of the Emperor and have him rescind the decree.

I'm afraid that 1940 is WAY too late for Japan's policy to get sane.

My PoD takes place on 2/26/36, not in 1940. This is important, because I want to have a Japan that never goes to (a full-scale) war in China proper. Japan made itself very unpopular when it invaded Manchuria (because of the needless agression), but at least Manchuria was widely recognized as a Japanese sphere of influence. When Japan went to war with China as a whole, it threatened British, French, US, etc. interests. They had to take notice of that, as it affected their natural interests. I want to prevent that, because I want Japan to be able to join either camp.
If I could, I would also prevent the "Shanghai Incident" of 1932, but I don't know a good PoD for that.

Anyway, suffice it to say that I don't agree with your assessment. The militarists were just one power block among several in the Japan of the 1930's; their rise is not inevitable. You are correct to point of that their penchant for violence and assassinations made it so that few people would openly oppose them, but that is not enough by itself for them to gain power. The real key to them gaining power is that the power elites kept compromising with them.

The assassins and assorted rebels were only ever given a slap on the wrist. In that sense, it was just like interwar Germany--after the failed coup of 1923, Hitler was given a short jail term, because the judge was convinced he acted out of the highest motives of patriotism. It was a similar situation in Japan, where too much of the political elite shared the militarists deep distrust of liberal democracy.

This is the key to my PoD. The Emperor was above politics, like the British royals. If he openly and publicly sides with the civilian government, it will be much harder for the militarists to win the argument. It doesn't matter how many people the militarists murder, if it is seen as violent treason, it won't advance their goals. If they are actually tried for treason--which is a capital crime--it may also cut down on the number of people committed enough to commit these murders.

I don't think they will try to kidnap/coerce the Emperor. It is such a risky move. If word gets out, it will delegitimize their movement forever. It is the sort of thing that they would try in the 1940's, when their power was unchecked and they were confident in its use, but not in 1936, I think.

Even if you don't agree with my assessment of events, please just accept it for now. While I feel my PoD is plausible, what I really want to discuss is how Japan reacts to the outbreak of the war in Europe if they are not at war themselves.

The best chance that Japan is not involved in a Sino-Japanese war over 1937-40 is a different Xi'an Incident http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Xi'an_Incident. One possibility is that Chiang is killed and China falls into extensive civil war as suggested by Mike Ralls in his Ishiwara Option posted on soc.history.what-if in 2002 which is a good read.

That looks quite interesting, thanks. I will give it a read. However, it does not work for my purposes. I want Japan to be changed, so that it does not lean so heavilly into the Axis camp. This is a Japan with that has not signed the Anti-Comintern Pact. It is a Japan that is as likely to join the Allies as the Axis, depending on where it sees its interests.
 
TO determine what would happen in 1940 we should know what happened in 1936-1940 ;)

If you read the history of Sino Japanese interaction in the 30s I believe it is to late in 1936 to change things radically.

After the 1932 Shanghai Incident the situation only got worse.

The better startingpoint would therefor be before the Shanghai incident.

It would be necessary to "defuse" the anti Japanese "riots" in Shanghai, so that this incident would not happen allowing for a slight increase in relations between China and Japan.

If in 1936 the japanese military faction is "cut back" then there might be no second sino Japanese war.

Its not so important what happens to Japan, but what does this mean for the Chinese Civil war.

IOTL the communists seized Manchuko after the Japanese defeat an got a valuable base. No Sino Japanese war might se a defeat of communists in the years between 36-40. Germany already had a military mission in china (they switched only later to the Japanese side, but ITTL China might be strong enough to keep Germany interested.

So I think it is save that we can assume the following:

Japan and China are on better terms (though not friendly terms)
Germany still supports China (KMT is seen as anti Communist)
No US embargoes on Japan (seen as trade partner, but not as allie)
Japan slightly less miltaristic (Navy faction get higher influence?)

Now add the 1940 defeat of France and the Netherlands...

IOTL the Siamese used this to attack and grab a nice stretch of French Indochina - Assume That an united china would do the same effectively divvying up (or trying) Ferench Indochina.

Assume that japan steps in (with consent of US and UK) to "prevent" the total defeat of the french (as in OTL).

Maybe this could lead to Japan US and UK deciding that defeated countries (France Netherlands) are in danger to lose their posessions, so they woudl "step" in and HOLD the Colonies for their rightful owners :rolleyes:... Of course the raw materials would then go to the 3 protectors.

What then?
 
I don't think you have to hold back the anti Japanese riots in Shanghai to develop better relationships Between Japan and China 1932-1936. It's also a perception of Chinas weakness 1932-36 that makes here such a tempting target as she is. A double POD of a Imperial decree in support of the civilian Government and letting this change the Xi'an incident (or butterfly it due to a much different perceived Japanese threat) to make the perception of Chinese power to be altered might be enough to stop a large scale war.

What I'm saying is that the Navy faction might side whit the Civilian Government after a decree from the emperor to gain influence from the army faction (and larger cut of the budget etc). The majority of the industrialist faction (Zaibatsu財閥/ざいばつ) were more liberal and towards the Navy anyway (due to larger contracts for ships and airplanes than tanks and guns. The need of protecting the shipping helped too). A imperial decree in support of the governing government 1936 swings both money and power towards both the Navy and the Civilian Government and away from the Army making the bigger players distancing themselves from the Army to gain more contracts.

Would the young officers and the militaristic factions take this lying down? No but they won't defy the emperor either. Instead of assassinations they might switch to Kidnappings where the "victim" gets killed "accidently" in rescue attempts or is hold ransom for political goals. Japan will be more turned inwards to resolve this power struggle as the militaristic faction test how sincere the imperial decree is. If some sort of treason process against some culprits start this would be the sole focus of the Japanese political life for a while taking the efforts and focus away form China.

The next step is the Xi'An incident that come into being out if fear from increasing Japanese aggression. Whit the Japanese Army in some sort of internal struggle against its own government (not a civil war but a political game of kidnappings and assassinations attempts or high profile legal processes) there might be seen as a opportunity to smash the communists for good and no Xi'An incident or a much different one happen.

Some sort of "Marco Polo Bridge" incident might be unavoidable but if this happen in a 1937 where the Army position is wakened and the Chinese central government is stronger there might actually lead to a settlement instead of a new War. Japan might not gain any international points for this but a second Sino-Japanese war is more damaging.

1937-1940 is more unclear in from this initial scenario. I presume that there is a continued power struggle between the Militarist in the Army and those in the Navy whit the Civilian Government more on the side of the Navy (out of increasing necessity to Survive if nothing else) and there might be some more incidents along the border of China and Japan (and anti Japanese riots in China is a clear possibility). If the army tries to make a war out if it to strengthen its position the Navy have the Imperial decree as the rope to hang them whit and if its only kept as Incidents it's not going to make any larger dents in the international community's view of Japan.

The increasing international demand for war material might strengthen the more liberal economic faction that wants to trade whit all sides and earn money. If they allies whit the civilian Government and the Navy faction the struggle of power might be resolved by 1940 and fall of France comes around. (it is plausible as the common man would enjoy the high paying industrial jobs more than the forced conscription time in the Army)

What about China then? Continued German mission is going to make some difference. No united front against the Japanese is another difference. The biggest differences is no war whit Japan. There might even be a substantial trade whit Japan for war material (as US, UK and France gear its own production towards domestic consumption) giving China a bargain chip to hold over Japan if the Japanese Army get to fresh (and gives the political opponents a batting tree against the Army in Japan). Especially no second Sino-Japanese War makes China so different that I can't imagine what's happening. Would蔣介石 Chiang Kai-shek turn on the other warlords when he is done (or think he is done) whit the communists? Is Soviet Union going to try to sway him away from Germany (entirely possible) as German resources for the mission dwindle by the second world war? Germany could press for a Chinese front against Soviet to hard (and no its not even possible for China to open a serious front against Soviet due to logistics and poor infrastructure in that part of china and that part of Soviet). Or 蔣介石 Chiang Kai-shek might be ousted in a Xi'an incident like coup 36-37 to reconcile whit the communist faction within the National party. So many options of how china could be.

There is also an option I would like to point out: A economic stronger and diplomatic more acceptable Japan might outright offer to buy or lease French and Dutch colonial possessions in Asia. A combined purchase and lease of French Indochina whit Siam would be tempting for Free France. Especially if Indochina is declared for Vichy. This might be okayed by UK and USA as they would like to prop Free France up. Leasing the Dutch indies is more a question of economy after this and in late war (43-44) some Dutch and French Islands might be sold to Japan to pay for war material from Japan. I personally feel that a Japan in the 40is not in the grips of the Militaristic and Nationalistic fanatics and whit a weaker Army faction would stay out of the second World war as there is nothing to gain for them. The butterflies of this is not as big in Europe as one might think as the Pacific war were a side show anyway.
 
I don't really know much about internal Japanese struggles, but if you wanted Japan to avoid going into China you could have the Communists more effectively eradicated between 1927 and 1936, before the Xian incident. This would leave the KMT in stronger control of the nation and present a more credible defense. The only trouble with this is that the left faction is going to be ideologically attractive to a lot of people and unless Chiang Kai-Shek really gets his act together in all respects (highly implausible) to strengthen not only his power but also authority, there will be significant civil unrest that would be seen as exploitable weakness by the hawkish elements in Japan.

As I understand it part of the Japanese rationale for attacking China was that a) they had the perceived ability and b) if they didn't, China would either become powerful and threaten Japan or fall into disorder and become a bastion of Western imperialism which would also threaten Japan in the long term.

Another Sino-centric PoD: IOTL, Sun Zhongshan lived only to 1925 and died at the age of 58 of cancer. Have him avoid cancer and perhaps he can lead the KMT more effectively than the man who replaced him. The CCP-KMT split could be avoided and with it the entire civil war.
 
This might not butterfly away the Xi'an Incident (perceived Japanese agression is the issue here, no one knew the Marco Polo Bridge Incident was going to happen only several months away), but it won't necessarily matter. The Xi'an Incident strengthened Chiang in many ways. His compusure during captivity impressed a lot of people, and he assumed a greater symbolic role in unifying China. If that is combined with no Marco Polo Bridge Incident, Chiang gets all the benefits but none of the drawbacks (having to actually fight Japan and see his best army units destroyed and lose the areas most loyal to him).

By 1939, the German trained divisions on Chiang's army go from 8 to 30. This is a massive improvement in the control Chiang has over the army. The number of arsenals and war industries in China also grows in this time period (still at a low level, but greatly boosting China's native war capacity). Coastal defenses, a small trained air force, and a coastal fleet (not enough for power projection, but enough to complicate any fleet action off Shanghai) all exist. Japan can't defeat China by this time even if it chooses to go to war.

By 1940, Chiang will be secure enough to begin eliminating internal threats to his power. Perhaps not be breaking the united front in open warfare, but by increasing the control Chiang has over the army and provinces. He'll have perhaps 80 divisions trained on German lines that are loyal to him by this time. He can begin centralizing the army payroll and disband any other units (meaning warlord units). If the warlords balk, it provides Chiang with a pretext to go after them. Outside the Communists and the Guangxi Clique, no warlord has a good enough army to even compete. Chiang could secure Yunnan for himself and offer incentives to the Shanxi and Guangxi Clique to cooperate with him and abandon autonomy in return for prestigious positions within the national government. He might even be able to get defectors from the CCP to re-enter the KMT, or at least neutralize the virulent anti-Chiang faction headed by Mao in favor of those like Zhou Enlai who were open to cooperation.

If there is no Xi'an Incident, then he still accomplishes all the above except now the Communists are either wiped out or greatly weakened.

Chiang is unlikely to start a war with the Soviet Union even during the hide tide of Nazism in 1941, but he might be able to get Stalin to agree to abandon his plans in Xinjiang so he can assert his authority there. Chiang could fight a defensive war at this time, but the Nationalists are still too weak to initiate any fight, so Manchukuo will remain independent throughout the WII period. By the end of the 1940s, China might be powerful enough that the status of Manchuria again needs to be discussed so a Sino-Japanese War might begin around then.
 
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