I for one do not agree that a Japanese victory at Khalkhin Gol needs to have ASB elements to be possible. Despite all the IJA's deficiencies in supplies, armor etc and the fact that they were outnumbered, according to several sources they inflicted more casualties than they themselves suffered in the case of both of their major battles with the Soviets (Khasan and Khalkhin Gol). At the very least there is a strong case for fairly even casualties.
Therefore, providing the battle doesn't escalate by several orders of magnitude (and again I don't believe this is inevitable), I believe the IJA could certainly have scored a similar victory to the victory the Soviets won in OTL, without a huge shopping list of major enhancements (ASB or otherwise).
Therefore, providing the battle doesn't escalate by several orders of magnitude (and again I don't believe this is inevitable), I believe the IJA could certainly have scored a similar victory to the victory the Soviets won in OTL, without a huge shopping list of major enhancements (ASB or otherwise).