Blockship continues ...
FlyingDutchman, in replu to your post #44,
You're still not getting my point(s). - Oh, I "get" them alright, I just don't agree with most of them.
The Brits had and have practically eons of experience with fireships, blockships and other ancient techniques to annoy their enemies.- As I've already posted, I don't own a copy of your source so you'll have to tell us what it says about why/how the Brits screwed up their blockships at Dunkirk. I can't read your mind to get the facts.
Extra anchors or not, the chance of success is too small with a single large ship while you run the risk of compromising the entire attack on Pearl. - In your (so far unsubstanciated) opinion.
Let me point out that my scenario is limited in the number of Japanese blockships sent by the HISTORICAL fact that the US had embargoed Japanese merchant shipping in its territorial waters for some time PRIOR to the Pearl Harbor attacks. The US government in Washington DID historically give the Tatuta Maru permission to pass thru Honolulu on Dec.9'41 while on its way from Yokahama to San Francisco so, my scenario uses just ONE blockship (surprise, surprise), the 17,000 ton Tatuta Maru, advanced by just two days.
Sure, I'd like to include more blockships BUT if an American search plane saw 2,3,4,5 or 6 Japanese ships traveling towards Oahu when it expected to see ONLY the Tatuta Maru on course and schedule, an alarm would have been raised.
Your source does seem better. - Since I don't have access to yours, I'll just take your word for it.
Mine indicates that a magnetic mine sank one of the three Brit blockships outside of Dunkirk harbor, that another of the blockships tried a last minute change of position to replace the one sunk by the mine, that there was a strong current running (doesn't say from where or why) and that there was artillery shelling of the harbor going on, at the same time. Did I mention that it was AT NIGHT also ? I'm told that its harder to plot a ship's position accurately, in the dark, with shell flashes all around but never having been in that position myself, I don't know that to be fact or fiction. But, I have my suspicions. LOL.
My scenario would certainly include shelling of the Tatuta Maru by the 2x3" examination battery but otherwise it's:
1.) in daylight
2.) has no strong currents
3.) has no minefields magnetic nor otherwise (although if USS Ward doesn't get torpedoed by an IJN minisub then things will get really ugly, really fast for the Tatuta Maru.)
So even though the Brits had room for error, they still bungled and as mentioned above, the British aren't exactly novices at blockships and the likes. - Other than the source that I provided, I have no idea as to how/why they screwed it up, twice. Maybe too much long term interest in "rum, sodomy and the lash" ?? Or too many defective lima beans ?
Since you raised the point, what does your Lord source have to say on the matter ?
No, your blockship needs to sink perfectly sideways and even then you leave enough room for torpedoboats, ASW trawlers and even DD's to pass, as you mentioned yourself. - And just why would the Kido Butai, with 6 carriers worth of warplanes, 2 battleships, 2 heavy cruisers, some 9 destroyers and 30 IJN submarines in support, really care at all about 6 PTs (less if oiler Ramapo gets hit since three of the 6 PTs were already loaded on her decks or the wharf beside her for transit to the Philipines), some ASW trawlers (sorry but did the US have any of those inside PH on Dec.7'41 ?) and a few US destroyers that might get past the remaining Japanese minisubs ? With the first US DD being torpedoed, I'd doubt that any more would risk the squeeze past the Tatuta Maru. And all of that murky water that you mentioned would be good for hiding lurking IJN minisubs from the watching eyes of US PBYs circling overhead.
Promotion boards don't look kindly upon loosing first commands while taking stupid risks.
Your remark about leaving subs behind as a sort of suicidesquad shows way too much hindsight. - How so ? Historically one of the IJN's 'mothership' submarines was scehduled to pick-up the minisub crewmen so no "suicidesquad" mission was included in my scenario either. Once their torpedoes were exhausted each Japanese minisub would be free to leave the PH ship channel for a crew pick-up at the historical location. Hopefully 2-3 days later ...
What are your sources to prove the Japanese were 100% aware of the American lack of security? - I wouldn't say 100% lack but Prange's "ADWS" details much of it. A google search for Yoshikawa will provide more info on his pre-war intell gathering efforts.
Also mini-subs, just like the Italian pigs, are extremely vulnerable and I doubt their usefullness in a channel whose water is murky after all the explosions/fires etc. - IIRC the Italian "pigs" were just a manned torpedo (with controls) straddled by two divers ? The IJN minisubs were a good deal larger and actually were a dry pressurized interior minisub, fitted with a periscope to rise above all of that dirty, murky harbor water. Again, I have no doubt that a google search prior to entering a discussion might prove educational.
A few handgrenades in the water after periscopes and strange waves have been spotted will probably suffice to destroy the minisubs, - Sigh ... have you read absolutely nothing about the history of the day ?
My point was that despite being threatened by flaming fuel, California wasn't lost and neither would any decent sized warship. - My point is that had you read a book on the subject you would know that the flaming oil NEVER REACHED the USS California. A combination of wind shift and prop wash was used to keep the oil away WITHOUT it reaching the battleship. BUT she was ordered abandoned because of the THREAT that the flaming oil presented, well BEFORE it even reached her. Her Captain realized the very real threat, even if you do not.
You're also assuming that if the Japanese manage to hit a single oilfarm, they'll succeed in releasing every last drop of oil in all the tanks in that oilfarm. - Well I believe that I've mentiioned that there were 4 seperate oil tankfarms but yes, having witnessed the total destruction by fire of 8 out of 8 large, modern, bermed, foam system protected oil tanks in Vladivostock, that is exactly what I am saying. Yet another google search will reveal many internet photo sequences of progressively spreading oil tank fires. They are the devil's own spawn to extinguish, even today, let alone 66 years ago, with the Japanese still trying to bomb/straffe you at the same time.
... as long as it doesn't start to burn ... - Is the critical potion of your arguement. I seem to remember seeing LOTS of historical PH photos showing "flaming fuel on the water" views. If it can be lit on the water, why would it not burn on land when the Japanese would be trying to set it afire ?
--------------------------------------------------------
in reply to your posting #46,
...the Japanese could have tried to land airplanes at the airbases (like they did much later with suicide squads) to destroy planes. The low readiness coupled with the planes parked together, could have meant that an SAS-style attack would be extremely successfull. - True enough except that would have been a suicide attack when none were officially ordered so early in the Pacific War. I suppose that one could argue that sympathetic Oahu residents of Japanese ancestry (40% of the population there) might have been persuaded to hide any survivors but realistically, how would any such have gotten back to Japan after the hornet's nest at PH was "poked" ?
The Japanese did historically have 12 G3M2 Nell bombers that had been converted to civilian airliner status pre-war and had the range needed to carry 10 or so "commandoes" (possibly JSNLF paratroopers) on a one-way flight from Kwajalein (Roi) to Oahu but over ocean navigation, at night, would have been life threatening. And historically, Enterprise's air search radar might have picked them up in the darkness, while still about an hour SW of Oahu. Not that the Japanese could have known that, without hindsight.
Its already been proposed (by me) just recently on another board.