WI Japan took Vladivostok

Let's say in the Russo-Japanese war Japan managed to seize Vladivostok and keep it as part of the end of war conditions, under all the circumstances needed for that to happen. What would the consequences be?
 
The Japanese simply wouldn't be allowed to keep Vladivostock, in fact they could not even seize it. The Russians are not going to allow their only major Far East port to slip from their grasp.
 

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The Japanese simply wouldn't be allowed to keep Vladivostock, in fact they could not even seize it. The Russians are not going to allow their only major Far East port to slip from their grasp.

Well, its not like theyre guaranteed to win. They did fairly well in OTL, but if the Japanese beat them on the ground, conquering everything east of the Amur is a fairly trivial task. Theres not much ground to cover, and the defensive positions are substantially better for a japanese occupier than they were in northern Manchuria.

Youre probably right that Moscow would be willing to pay a heavy price to get it back. If it came to losing Vladivostok or Mongolia, though - because thats what they have to offer a victorious Japan to back off - Im not so sure the choice is easy. Either way, I agree that this is a POD that dies in 1945. The Soviets will take it back with a vengeance.
 
Youre probably right that Moscow would be willing to pay a heavy price to get it back. If it came to losing Vladivostok or Mongolia, though - because thats what they have to offer a victorious Japan to back off - Im not so sure the choice is easy. Either way, I agree that this is a POD that dies in 1945. The Soviets will take it back with a vengeance.
Well, technically they could throw in North Sakhalin. Maybe more concessions in Manchuria (the northern spur of the Chinese Eastern Railway, and such)?
 
Well, its not like theyre guaranteed to win. They did fairly well in OTL, but if the Japanese beat them on the ground, conquering everything east of the Amur is a fairly trivial task. Theres not much ground to cover, and the defensive positions are substantially better for a japanese occupier than they were in northern Manchuria.

Youre probably right that Moscow would be willing to pay a heavy price to get it back. If it came to losing Vladivostok or Mongolia, though - because thats what they have to offer a victorious Japan to back off - Im not so sure the choice is easy. Either way, I agree that this is a POD that dies in 1945. The Soviets will take it back with a vengeance.

There is a lot of ground to cover and it would have been very hard for the Japanese to have gone much further. The Russians were defeated in the field, but the Japanese were on the ropes financially - and they needed to end the war as soon as possible.

The Japanese were also nearing the end of their supplies lines in regards to supporting their forces in Manchuria. The Russians were falling back upon their supplies line and could have lured Japanese into defeat.
 
It seems some forgot that the Japanese once controlled Vladivostok. Even though they were technically propping up a White Russian leader in Vladivostok. They could have taken controlled. When the other allies left in April 1920 the Japanese Troops were the only foreign troops in Vladivostok. Japanese left Oct. 1922.

This Photo is when they got there in 1918:

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Japanese Troops at the docks of Vladivostok:
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Japanese got to Vladivostok around August 18, 1918. They left in 1922. But they did control Northern Sakhalin island from 1921 to 1925. They signed an agreement with the Soviets at the Beijing convention on January 20 1925 to return to the Soviets Northern Sakhalin.

When the Japanese got involved in Siberia the Japanese Prime Minister Terauchi Masatake and some in his government did not want to really get involved in Russia. While others in the government and military did want to get involved. So the Japanese government was split. They did get involved after the US asked them to send troops to Siberia to help prop up the White Russians. Other nations also sent troops. Italy sent troops as well as the UK.. Even China sent troops. Japanese sent 12000.

This is a time line I found:
1918
1/12 Japanese and British navies sent warships to Vladivostok
4/5 Japanese and British naval landing forces landed at Vladivostok
8/12 Japanese army landed at Vladivostok
9/6 The Japanese occupied Chita
9/22 The whole Amour Railway was occupied by intervention armies
1919
2/25 Tanaka Detachment was annihilated by Soviet partisan
11/14 Omsk was occupied by Red Army
1920
1/9 USA declared the retreat from Siberia
2/24 UK declared the retreat from Siberia
4/4 The Japanese occupied Vladivostok
4/6 Far-East Republic was established at Chita
5/25 Japanese garrisons and civilians at Nikolaevsk were slaugtered by Soviet partisan
8/20 The Japanese retreated from Zabaikal
9/2 Czech troops escape from Russia
12/12 The Japanese retreated from Khabarovsk
1922
6/24 Japanese Government declared the retreat from Siberia
10/25 All Japanese forces retreated from Siberia
Should be noted that the Allies sent troops to Russian Far East to make sure the Germans did not get all the weapons that had been sent via the Far Eastern Russia. Also, to try to help get the 50000 Czechs that were trapped in Russia out of there and back into the fight in Europe. And to try to help prop up the White Russians.

It seems the weather plus Soviet determination made them change there minds. Even the Japanese left.

Photo of Japanese with captured Soviet Armor truck:
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Photo of Japanese leaving Vladivostok in Oct. 1922.

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Map of Japanese Campaign in Far Eastern Russia:

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For what it's worth, the Japanese did hold Vladivostock for a few months during the Russian Civil War. IIRC, they left it around 1920 due to the collapse of Kolchak's government, continued pressure from the Americans (who I think also had a contingent in Vladivostock), and, of course, a lack of any general plan as to what they wanted to do with it.

Overall, I think that Vladivostock and Eastern Siberia might not have been a major priority for the Japanese. After all, most of the good stuff is in Korea and Manchuria, and holding Vladivostock means that they'll continually have to worry about a Russian revanche, which would cause yet another drain on the military budget.
 
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