Wi: Japan the third biggest nuclear weapons holder

With a POD as close to the 1960's would it possible to have a nuclear arms race between Japan and China in the late 60's?
 
Near to likely ASB, but closer POD

1. Taft Presidency with a total abandonment of Korea to Communism.

2. No KMT escape to Taiwan/Taft doesn't protect Taiwan

3. China plus its proxy in Korea seek revenge against Japan for the War and to have power projection abilities in the Pacific.

4. Out of desperation to preserve their colonies against the Reds, Britain and France ally with Japan and share nuclear knowledge.

Easy POD:

Allied Japan against an Axis KMT (say Mao's forces fall apart in the early 1930s).
 
With a POD as close to the 1960's would it possible to have a nuclear arms race between Japan and China in the late 60's?
At any point since the 1960s America has maintained a carrier group in and around Japan.

There was American nukes in Japan until 1972.

Japan consistently spent in or around 1-1.2% of gdp on defense since the 1960s (including subsidies to USA in respect of American troops based in Japan).

The best way for Japan to be a major nuclear power would be for America to (as they have on several occasions) ask for Japan to increase payments (significantly) to support US troops in Japan.

If Japan was to reject America and America felt that their bluff had been called and they had to pull out of Japan.

Japan will have to build up their armed services significantly and will probably include an independent nuclear deterrent programme (cheaper than building a conventional force capable of defending Japan).
 
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