WI: Japan takes the Phillipines

Tyr

I recall some time ago I was playing a nation managing RPG type thing which began in 1898. The Japanese player was a bit of a god modding git who was only out to win so acting on knowledge he couldn't possibly know (Spain being weak) jumped on the Phillipines as soon as the game started.
I remembered this just today when watching a documentary about Saneyuki Akiyama's time spent in Japan when he is discussing the American tactics together with a bunch of Russians.

So...is there anyway in the late 19th century we could get a Spannish-Japanese war which results in the Phillipines being taken?
The big problem is Japan can't just go for a all out land grab, such things just weren't done. How could they get a cassus beli though...
 

DuQuense

The Independence Fighters in late 1800's did kill a few innocents/bystanders by mistake.
Have some of these be the Japanese Consul & Party. Bomb going off, or shots in a crowd.
Japan moves in to restore Order.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Since this is a pre-1900 forum It is actually possible for Mayi to ask to be a protectorate/vassal of Japan in order to protect themselves from Brunei, then snap, have the heiress of Mayi marry the Japanese Emperor and have a Yamato house of Mayi making OTL Luzon a Japanese dominion, the Japanese will be liked in Mayi because the Japanese are also Buddhist and the nobility of Mayi are also Buddhist, but if that happened Taiwan and Ryukyu will be likely Japanese, I think that will be good to OTL Luzon because they will be spared from genocides that happened there in the Bruneian and the Spanish rule although there will be a big Japanese influence in them.
 
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Iori

Iori

kasumigenx said:
Since this is a pre-1900 forum It is actually possible for Mayi to ask to be a protectorate/vassal of Japan in order to protect themselves from Brunei, then snap, have the heiress of Mayi marry the Japanese Emperor and have a Yamato house of Mayi making OTL Luzon a Japanese dominion, the Japanese will be liked in Mayi because the Japanese are also Buddhist and the nobility of Mayi are also Buddhist, but if that happened Taiwan and Ryukyu will be likely Japanese, I think that will be good to OTL Luzon because they will be spared from genocides that happened there in the Bruneian and the Spanish rule although there will be a big Japanese influence in them.
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He said in the late 19th century.
 
Iori

Iori

kasumigenx said:
Okay, it is possible in 19th century just make Japan to have the attitude it had in World War II earlier.
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That's like saying 'have America have the attitude it had after 9/11 in 1920.

The events that lead to Japanese hyper-militarism and expansionism were all results of things that happened after 1920.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Iori said:
That's like saying 'have America have the attitude it had after 9/11 in 1920.

The events that lead to Japanese hyper-militarism and expansionism were all results of things that happened after 1920.
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I think it is possible for Japan to be expansionist earlier but you need an event to trigger it.
 

abc123

Banned
The thing that would interest me is if somehow in, say 1897 begins war between Spain and Japan, how it would end, who would have won? Also, can we expect another Triple Intervention ( maybe even US in this intervention ) against Japan?
 
Iori

Iori

kasumigenx said:
I think it is possible for Japan to be expansionist earlier but you need an event to trigger it.
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Aside from claiming some more smaller islands and maybe a legation city in China, Japan could not be expansionist in the late 19th century (without a pre-1830 PoD) for two reasons;

1. They did'nt have the power to do so.
2. The Western powers would intervene over something large, which the Philippines would be.
 

Tyr

1. I disagree with. Japan wasn't massively powerful but then nor was Spain. Japan sure managed to beat the Russians.
2. Is indeed the problem. But then I wouldn't see such a scenario as Japan randomly deciding to invade the Phillipines. Some excuse would need to be concocted at least.
 
Iori

Iori

Tyr said:
1. I disagree with. Japan wasn't massively powerful but then nor was Spain. Japan sure managed to beat the Russians.
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The initial defeat of Russia was hardly something assured though, and was partly the result of Russia thinking Japan was weaker than it ws and thus not fielding the kind of forces needed.

It ws'nt really until the 1890's that the Japanese military strength began tor eally grow.


2. Is indeed the problem. But then I wouldn't see such a scenario as Japan randomly deciding to invade the Phillipines. Some excuse would need to be concocted at least.
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The thing is, even with an excuse the Western powers at that point simply are'nt going to allow it for a variety of reasons, hell even if Spain never lost the Philippines and Japan tried it say in 1910 it would'nt be allowed, though opposed by less than earlier.
 

David S Poepoe

Banned
It would be hard for the Japanese. In the Sino-Japanese War the Japanese won in being far more modernized and tightly organized than the Chinese. One really had a late 19th century army fighting against late 18th century army.

The Russo-Japanese War the Japanese practically one by default - the defaulting of the Russians to prosecute the war as internal problems and revolution became more important. The war didn't have to be decided at sea and the Russians were falling back to positions of greater strength while the Japanese were running out of money. They won the war but lost at Portsmouth.

I would consider that any conflict in the Philippines would be just at the limit of Japanese power projection for the end of the 19th century. It would be a difficult war for both powers and really a near run thing. Just a rough comparison navally I would consider them fairly equal in power.
 

Sumeragi

Banned
kasumigenx said:
But this is not impossible since Kim Suro married an Ayodha Princess, but it is near ASB I believe.
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Yes, but that was over a millennium from your POD. Furthermore, the Tenno was either irrelevant or considered a kami who could only marry within a few select families. Therefore, it is just pure ASB.
 
kasumigenx

kasumigenx

Sumeragi said:
Yes, but that was over a millennium from your POD. Furthermore, the Tenno was either irrelevant or considered a kami who could only marry within a few select families. Therefore, it is just pure ASB.
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Yes, an intermarriage will affect the reputation of the Tenno so it is impossible.
 
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Faralis

In 1905 they only won because the Russians did NOT know how bad was Japanese economy ... they NEEDED a fast victory because any type of war of attrition would have been won by the Russians and the Japanese Government knew it, that is the reason why they did not protested after being ripped in the peace talks ( and the start of the militarist was after this, the events in the 20´s only heightened an already existing movement ).

And even then the reasons they won were: fighting near their bases, a very professional navy and pure and simple luck.

Spain is not Russia, by far, but in 98 the Japanese were not prepared for a long fight and they new it, and the Spanish navy was not SO weak for a really fast win, and Japanese economy was not prepared for a long war ( neither the Spanish, but a bit more prepared )

Other reason is they needed the British alliance, fighting the Russians benefited the British ( or so they thought), but a Japanese control over the Philippines would put them too near Australia for they taste, IMHO.
 
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Flubber

Banned
kasumigenx said:
I think it is possible for Japan to be expansionist earlier but you need an event to trigger it.
Click to expand...


You'll also need an event which triggers European acceptance of an expansionist Japan's actions. There are several 800 lb gorillas waiting in the wings.

Don't forget, in 1895 after the 1st Sino-Japanese War, Russia, Germany, and France joined together and intervened to basically re-write the Treaty Shimonoseki between China and Japan in terms more favorable to themselves. That's right, Russia and France who signed an alliance in 1894 aimed squarely at Germany, joined with Germany in 1895 to put the boots to a non-European power.

If Japan is to gain the Philippines by 1898, you're going to need to change much more than just Japan and the Philippines.
 
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