So, how about, no atomic bombing of Japan and Japan surrenders anyway in August 1945?
PoD:
1) The first two US nuclear strikes are impossible because the two bombs are lost through some common cause accident.
2) The third bomb is not affected by the same accident, and is ready for dropping on 23rd of August, 1945, as per OTL - but has to be called off, because Japan surrenders on 22nd of August
3) Japan surrenders on 22nd of August because the Soviet invasion starts on 8th as per OTL and is a success as per OTL.
What other divergences would have happened between 6th and 22nd of August as a result of no nuclear bombing?
OTL, Soviet Navy was ready for landing on 18th of August, by which time Japan had surrendered. Soviet navy landed on Southern Kuriles and east coast of Korea north of 38th parallel. Soviet Navy had had plans for landing on Hokkaido, but called them off.
So... assuming that on 18th of August, the land invasion of Manchuria is going well as per OTL, but there has been no nuclear bombing and no surrender yet, where would Soviet Navy land?
PoD:
1) The first two US nuclear strikes are impossible because the two bombs are lost through some common cause accident.
2) The third bomb is not affected by the same accident, and is ready for dropping on 23rd of August, 1945, as per OTL - but has to be called off, because Japan surrenders on 22nd of August
3) Japan surrenders on 22nd of August because the Soviet invasion starts on 8th as per OTL and is a success as per OTL.
What other divergences would have happened between 6th and 22nd of August as a result of no nuclear bombing?
OTL, Soviet Navy was ready for landing on 18th of August, by which time Japan had surrendered. Soviet navy landed on Southern Kuriles and east coast of Korea north of 38th parallel. Soviet Navy had had plans for landing on Hokkaido, but called them off.
So... assuming that on 18th of August, the land invasion of Manchuria is going well as per OTL, but there has been no nuclear bombing and no surrender yet, where would Soviet Navy land?