WI: Japan surrenders early?

[NothingNow]

There's nothing there really worth it. Subs are much better deployed against merchantment. Carriers & other heavies are strongly escorted & fast, making them damn hard to attack, especially near major bases, where there's good enemy air cover. Nimitz is much better advised IMO to mine the approaches, refresh as needed, & shoot the minesweepers. (IJN minesweeping was a joke.)

To track them, I'd be using traffic analysis & a watch on the movement cypher. (I presume Hypo had broken it & could keep current, or reasonably current.)

Good point. But showing up in force to raid the base, (like Operation Hailstone) could pay off fairly well.

I presume, here, you've forgotten the Sub Force

No I didn't. Although operating a few cruisers as raiders in addition to the submarines would've been useful at that stage, even if they were just the Omahas or Pensacolas, if they could be freed up for such duties.

& Midway...?

Brain fart, although I doubt you could seriously operate that much actually out of Midway while maintaining a decent operational tempo. Also, this was before the fueling station was actually set up, which would also take a decent amount of time.

 

[MattII]

Maybe if CNO Pratt hadn't been such a, well, prat, and putting such unworkable limits on the BuOrd about the use of the USS Ericsson then the US might have started the war with a half-way decent torpedo, though the magnetic exploder will probably still give trouble, and the things will occasionally run circular. This more than any matter of deployments or re-basements will have a catastrophic effect on the Japanese, as with even a still-poor rate of 1 good torpedo in 3, the US submarines will now have on average, eight good torpedoes each.

 

[phx1138]

showing up in force to raid the base, (like Operation Hailstone) could pay off fairly well.

Beats swinging at anchor for the duration, I suppose. I do wonder if they'd escape the pursuit.

operating a few cruisers as raiders in addition to the submarines would've been useful at that stage, even if they were just the Omahas or Pensacolas, if they could be freed up for such duties.

Same answer, & agreed.

I doubt you could seriously operate that much actually out of Midway while maintaining a decent operational tempo. Also, this was before the fueling station was actually set up, which would also take a decent amount of time.

I always forget how long it took to get that done...

 

[UrbanRedneck]

I'd been thinking about this for the Anti FAT scenario I'd been mulling over for a while. My idea was to have Hirohito die, have Prince_Mikasa wind up on the throne...and essentially against the war as well as looking for a way out. This is a man who condemned Japanese atrocities in China; he's a great choice for someone to try to improve Japan in this period.

If Douglas MacArthur gets killed in the Phillipines and the United States decides to push directly for Japan, the timetable for encircling Japan itself may well get moved up considerably, upping the pressure on Japan as well.

To most reasonable men, Japan would be beaten in this alt-1944. Former PM Fumimaro_Konoe advised Hirohito to seek a negotiated peace before the country was threatened by a communist overthrow; my thinking is that you get Mikasa on the Throne, Konoe as PM. Isoroku Yamamoto is placed in charge of the Navy; Tomoyuki Yamashita, is placed in charge of the Army. Both Yamamoto and Yamashita are highly intelligent, reasonable people who warned against the war and tried to run it in a reasonable way, and would probably agree that surrender is necessary.

So, with the situation essentially hopeless in 1944, Emperor Mikasa and his Cabinet decide to surrender to the United States and United Kingdom. There is an insurrection like OTL, but its likewise crushed. VJ Day, 1944.

And alot fewer Japanese dieing from bombing both atomic and conventional. Fewer allied men deing at Okinawa, Iwo Jima, and in Japanese POW camps.

Then imagiane the HUGE naval force that could be brought against Germany?

 

[phx1138]

Then imagiane the HUGE naval force that could be brought against Germany?

I'm asking myself when the surrender happens, & if it's possible there's transfer of LCs (& manpower, tho probably not in time for that) for *Neptune/*Anvil.

As for the armada, I'd imagine a lot of those ships get cancelled & scrapped on slip.

 

[NothingNow]

Beats swinging at anchor for the duration, I suppose. I do wonder if they'd escape the pursuit.

You could set it up to heavily favor the Fleet surviving, with a trap or something.

Hell, it's only 1200 miles from Port Moresby (probably about 1800-2000mi from Midway,) and 700 miles from Rabaul.

Retake Rabaul, or do some funny things to those B-17s and B-24s then available to bump their range up a bit, and you could reasonably send heavy bombers as well (and they'd be pretty much imune to the Zeroes and Oscars they'd have as interceptors.)

It might be worth while to go full bore on Rabaul first, right away in January/February, and then use that as a staging base for the air-raid on Truk as soon as the airfields are patched up and the fighting's a few miles from them (so Mid-march.)

In the meantime there's always firebombing Balikpapan from bases in Batavia and Suryabaya, which would hurt the IJN severely if you could do it in late-January/Early February 1942, before they get a chance to really dig in there. That'd also be a nightmare mission to set up. Supporting the liberation of Rabaul should probably take priority, as a Battleship supported by a Destroyer Squadron and some Catalinas could pretty much turn Balikpapan to a cinder in late January/1st week of February, should the resources be available.

 

[phx1138]

You could set it up to heavily favor the Fleet surviving, with a trap or something.

Hell, it's only 1200 miles from Port Moresby (probably about 1800-2000mi from Midway,) and 700 miles from Rabaul.

or do some funny things to those B-17s and B-24s then available to bump their range up a bit, and you could reasonably send heavy bombers as well (and they'd be pretty much imune to the Zeroes and Oscars they'd have as interceptors.)

I like the idea of a trap: Midway redux. I also like the idea of using B-17s/-24s, even without escort. (I've wondered about Doolittle with B-25s or -26s hitting Rabaul & recovering in Moresby or Darwin. No?)

Retake Rabaul

Good luck with that.

firebombing Balikpapan from bases in Batavia and Suryabaya, which would hurt the IJN severely if you could do it in late-January/Early February 1942

Another good one.

 

[NothingNow]

Good luck with that.

Actually, considering that there were only 5000 IJN/IJA troops deployed to take Rabaul, Rushing in a number of Marine brigades to regain the airstrip,ought to be do-able.

Even if it's just throwing some China Marines, Banana Wars vets, and a number of M3 Mediums and M2A4 light tanks and their crews for support at it, and hoping that it works.

 

[phx1138]

Actually, considering that there were only 5000 IJN/IJA troops deployed

Only? Seeing how most of the U.S. forces have no combat experience & in general performed pretty poorly against the Japanese OTL, & seeing how badly Tarawa (the first U.S. amphib op of PTO) went, I don't like the chances...

However, if you can pull troops out of DEI & Malaysia, or Oz, & put together a scratch force of 15,000-20,000, covered by 4 CVs (including Enterprise & Hornet, both with B-25s aboard)...it beats hell out of the Doolittle Stunt & the "defense" of Java. (If it draws in IJN heavies that can become targets for Wilkes' subs, so much the better. He had enough Sugar boats to sink the Asiatic Fleet's only CV of the war.)

 

[LeX]

I was reading a memoir written by one of the former Japanese holdouts, who claims that already in 1944 there was rumor that the Americans were developing nuclear weapons, and that it was generally known that the war was in fact going badly and Japan would be unable to win.

 

[UrbanRedneck]

I was reading a memoir written by one of the former Japanese holdouts, who claims that already in 1944 there was rumor that the Americans were developing nuclear weapons, and that it was generally known that the war was in fact going badly and Japan would be unable to win.

Their is no doubt in my mind that the rank and file of Japanese officers knew the score pretty well. Many were against the war in the first place especially the ones who had travelled abroad and were not part of the fascist leadership.

 

[LeX]

Their is no doubt in my mind that the rank and file of Japanese officers knew the score pretty well. Many were against the war in the first place especially the ones who had travelled abroad and were not part of the fascist leadership.

Yeah, it was the nationwide groupthink-induced idiocy going on that prevented an earlier surrender.

 

[NothingNow]

Only? Seeing how most of the U.S. forces have no combat experience & in general performed pretty poorly against the Japanese OTL, & seeing how badly Tarawa (the first U.S. amphib op of PTO) went, I don't like the chances...

That's why I suggested building from a core of veteran marines. The guys who served in the Banana wars are going to be a hell of a lot more useful than the greener troops that got thrown into the fight on other occasions.

However, if you can pull troops out of DEI & Malaysia, or Oz, & put together a scratch force of 15,000-20,000, covered by 4 CVs (including Enterprise & Hornet, both with B-25s aboard)...it beats hell out of the Doolittle Stunt & the "defense" of Java. (If it draws in IJN heavies that can become targets for Wilkes' subs, so much the better. He had enough Sugar boats to sink the Asiatic Fleet's only CV of the war.)

Good point. Say, what about moving the 7th Division a couple months earlier, and pretty much rushing them straight from Syria/Palestine to New Britain?
At the same time, there's the 70th Fighter Squadron just sitting in Hawaii, and the rebuilt Far East Air Force in Australia and Java, so there's a force ready for such operations, and the USN's APDs could run in some Marine Raider Companies or Artillery from Pearl Harbor or the mainland if deemed necessary.

 

[phx1138]

That's why I suggested building from a core of veteran marines. The guys who served in the Banana wars are going to be a hell of a lot more useful than the greener troops that got thrown into the fight on other occasions.

I'm still a a tiny bit dubious, but allowing butterflies & surprise, it might not be a disaster.

Good point. Say, what about moving the 7th Division a couple months earlier, and pretty much rushing them straight from Syria/Palestine to New Britain?
At the same time, there's the 70th Fighter Squadron just sitting in Hawaii, and the rebuilt Far East Air Force in Australia and Java, so there's a force ready for such operations, and the USN's APDs could run in some Marine Raider Companies or Artillery from Pearl Harbor or the mainland if deemed necessary.

I like that. Could throw in the rest of AIF, while you're at it.

Can you add the 13th PS, which IIRC was bound for Iceland? (Or are they there already?)

Allowing it may not go right, what about putting the Raiders ashore at Tulagi? Follow with PTs & PBYs.

 

[NothingNow]

I'm still a a tiny bit dubious, but allowing butterflies & surprise, it might not be a disaster.

Worst comes to worse, they've already got good bushcraft, and won't be green, much less puking their guts out from some tropical disease.

I like that. Could throw in the rest of AIF, while you're at it.

Can you add the 13th PS, which IIRC was bound for Iceland? (Or are they there already?)

Allowing it may not go right, what about putting the Raiders ashore at Tulagi? Follow with PTs & PBYs.

That could all be awesome.

 

[phx1138]

Worst comes to worse, they've already got good bushcraft, and won't be green, much less puking their guts out from some tropical disease.

Works for me.

That could all be awesome.

TYVM.

I should be clear: I mean put the Raiders into Tulagi also, not instead.

 

[NothingNow]

I should be clear: I mean put the Raiders into Tulagi also, not instead.

But if the New Britain thing goes off right, Guadalcanal and Tulagi just got pre-empted, along with the rest of the Solomons campaign. There wouldn't be a landing, as they'd need everyone at Rabaul and Truk.

 

[phx1138]

But if the New Britain thing goes off right, Guadalcanal and Tulagi just got pre-empted, along with the rest of the Solomons campaign. There wouldn't be a landing, as they'd need everyone at Rabaul and Truk.

OK. So long as it keeps them out of Makin & revealling Japan's weakness in time for Japan to fix it.

 

[Jason222]

UK not writen white papers and the must Jews fled Palestine leading faster design A bomb and used Nazi Germany shortly after Peal Habor the Japanese surrender instead USA and UK get in strike range major cities know they might next.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Now that i think of it, the best way to get the japanese to surrender earlier is to have a better british defense in Malaya. Theres been a couple of tls that did that. The british holding malaya is surely possible, at least for several months longer than otl.

Malaya holding out means Burma holds, means the burma road stays open and maybe the burma rr is finished, which means Chiang makes a better fight.

It also means the japanese oil supply from the dei is a lot less secure, and gives the allies better forward bases when they do go on the attack.