WI Japan surrendered before Soviet Declaration of war

WI either the A bombs came earlier or (possibly with the implied threat of a Soviet North Japan) a conditional surrender was agreed in July 45/

1) Would that prevent Mao taking control of China?


2) Would that prevent North Korea?
 
Stalin is still coming, a surrender is not going to stop him.


No. At that point he's invading his ally China, except in Southern Saklin where at least some American boots on the ground.

The Nationalists are too corrupt to win the civil war but perhaps it takes longer for them to loose. Korea is united under the same former fascist cronies that founded South Korea as US cronies.

Southern Saklin remains Japanese.

Korean war is averted. The conquest of Tibet is delayed and possibly averted. Same thing possibly with the Muslim area just north of Tibet.
 
No. At that point he's invading his ally China, except in Southern Saklin where at least some American boots on the ground.

The Nationalists are too corrupt to win the civil war but perhaps it takes longer for them to loose. Korea is united under the same former fascist cronies that founded South Korea as US cronies.

Southern Saklin remains Japanese.

Korean war is averted. The conquest of Tibet is delayed and possibly averted. Same thing possibly with the Muslim area just north of Tibet.

No? Nothing you stated there stops Stalin from marching in in the name of "disarming the Japanese".
 
No. At that point he's invading his ally China, except in Southern Saklin where at least some American boots on the ground.

The Nationalists are too corrupt to win the civil war but perhaps it takes longer for them to loose. Korea is united under the same former fascist cronies that founded South Korea as US cronies.

Southern Saklin remains Japanese.

Korean war is averted. The conquest of Tibet is delayed and possibly averted. Same thing possibly with the Muslim area just north of Tibet.

The Soviets could still take Sakhalin regardless of the surrender. Unless Doug thinks it's a good idea to send US boots that far north just to annoy Stalin and convince Truman to refuse ceding lands to the Soviets, they will get the islands as per OTL. It would take a serious accident with Soviet amphibious operation to hamper them enough for the US to establish control, and even then, Stalin can just use 'victor's justification' and demand a reward for fighting the Japanese anyway.

As for Manchuria, there's really no stopping the Soviets there either. In fact, it might just speed up their takeover of Manchuria if Japanese units cease fighting and surrender.
 
Interesting topic. But, in my opinion, the event is unlikely: Japan kept only because had hoped that the Soviet Union and the United States with Britain start a war between themselves. After the entry of the USSR into the war it became clear that expect more there is nothing.
 
No? Nothing you stated there stops Stalin from marching in in the name of "disarming the Japanese".

Except the fact that he is "neutral" technically and the Americans would not want any "help" and would politely say so. So would China.

To ignore these realities would be just the thing to invite WW2 and a half, basically a limited war to get the Soviets out of Eastern Europe and out of Manchuria at the point in the cold war where the Balance of power most favors the Americans.

On the other hand, wait 5-6 years for Chiang and his corrupt cronies to squander their position in China and Socialism has a big victory.
 
Except the fact that he is "neutral" technically and the Americans would not want any "help" and would politely say so. So would China.

To ignore these realities would be just the thing to invite WW2 and a half, basically a limited war to get the Soviets out of Eastern Europe and out of Manchuria at the point in the cold war where the Balance of power most favors the Americans.

On the other hand, wait 5-6 years for Chiang and his corrupt cronies to squander their position in China and Socialism has a big victory.

They can say no all they want but at this point one has the will to start another fight with him over a distant part of the East.
 
Top